Craig Vitter is reporting that the campaign for Jeanette “Moonfruit” Rishell will soon be releasing poll numbers that show her in a very close race with Republican nominee Jackson Miller. I seriously doubt the accuracy of anything purporting such a laughable conclusion for several reasons.
First, Jeanette Rishell is having a really hard time raising money, and her first fundraiser was not at all successful in raising fund for her race. Her first campaign finance disclosure is padded with dubious non-cash contributions such as “donations” from her campaign manager, Matt Harrison who already has a full-time job. And when Jackson Miller actively started fundraising, he outraised her five-to-one during that period. The fact is, Rishell’s campaign is desperate for signs of hope that might convince members of the Democratic Caucus that her campaign is not a lost cause and worthy of their support. Otherwise, all the money will flow to other candidates who actually have a shot at winning. Rishell’s window of opportinuty for having such a shot is rapidly closing.
Secondly, Jeanette Rishell is inextricably tied to policy positions that are wildly unpopular in the 50th District. Her support for gay marriage, taxpayer funded day laborer centers, gun control, tax increases, more liberal abortion laws, exposing young schoolchildren to homosexuality, and marxist economics policies under the guise of “social justice” severely hamper her viability as a candidate. Up to this point the general public is pretty much unaware of these positions on the issues and uninformed about the candidates in general. And that may be the one opportunity, early on in this election cycle, for Jeanette Rishell to find collection of uninformed voters who are otherwise charmed by her pleasant personality and willing to consider her as a candidate. Given the right methodology, Rishell’s pollsters could possibly come up with somewhat encouraging statistics, but as a guide to actual voter preferences in the short and long terms, they would be meaningless.
It will be interesting to see what the Rishell campaign puts out, but far more interesting to see what the process to obtain these figures was. My expectation is that anything their campaign will release will be long on conclusions, and awfully short on methodology and supporting data.
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