Ben over at Not Larry Sabato, in addition to predicting narrow victories for George Allen and the Marriage Amendment, is pegging Jackson Miller’s margin of victory in the 50th District to be 10%, the same margin by which he’s predicting Frank Wolf to win. Since I focus on a smaller geographic area, it’s hard for me to judge the accuracy of many of these predictions.
As far as the 50th District goes, NLS may be in the ballpark regarding Jackson Miller, but some caveats are in order. The District is certainly affected by national political trends, and national events between now and November 7th could impact the outcome of this race. The agressive mail campaign by Jackson Miller seems to be having an impact — voters are talking about these mail pieces, and their quality and frequency is something previously unseen in the district. And then there’s the ground game, which favors Jackson Miller.
It’s not time to declare victory by any means, but it’s clear that Miller’s campaign plan is working. If that plan is well executed with the strong support of 50th District Republicans and other volunteers, this prediction may well prove pretty accurate.
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