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NLS Predicts 10 Point Miller Victory

By Greg L | 28 October 2006 | 50th HOD District | 5 Comments

Ben over at Not Larry Sabato, in addition to predicting narrow victories for George Allen and the Marriage Amendment, is pegging Jackson Miller’s margin of victory in the 50th District to be 10%, the same margin by which he’s predicting Frank Wolf to win. Since I focus on a smaller geographic area, it’s hard for me to judge the accuracy of many of these predictions.

As far as the 50th District goes, NLS may be in the ballpark regarding Jackson Miller, but some caveats are in order. The District is certainly affected by national political trends, and national events between now and November 7th could impact the outcome of this race. The agressive mail campaign by Jackson Miller seems to be having an impact — voters are talking about these mail pieces, and their quality and frequency is something previously unseen in the district. And then there’s the ground game, which favors Jackson Miller.

It’s not time to declare victory by any means, but it’s clear that Miller’s campaign plan is working. If that plan is well executed with the strong support of 50th District Republicans and other volunteers, this prediction may well prove pretty accurate.

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  1. Not Larry Sabato said on 28 Oct 2006 at 1:35 am:
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    I am NOT doing any of those things.

    First of all, that post was written by Larry’s Hairpiece (notice his name is in red, i.e. a Republican). He set the lines last year and again this year.

    So HE is predicting those lines- not me.

    I have an accuracy rating to protect :)

  2. Greg L said on 28 Oct 2006 at 8:21 pm:
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    Sorry, Ben. Forgive me for falling victim to the notion that mysterious anonymous authors on NLS might in fact be you.

  3. Not Larry Sabato said on 29 Oct 2006 at 2:13 am:
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    It’s all good- but Hairpiece isn’t mysterious- he was a frequent commenter in 2005, and has been hanging low in 2006.

  4. charles said on 30 Oct 2006 at 1:07 am:
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    I found that confusing, since the post was presumably from NLS since it wasn’t signed by anybody else, but it did mention the Hairpiece, which I thought meant NLS had just pulled some numbers off the top of his head, rather tha for example the poll numbers last week that he pulled out of the other end of his body.

  5. Big Dog said on 30 Oct 2006 at 10:15 am:
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    Has anyone done any credible recent polling in the 5oth?
    Not out of the hat stuff, but unbiased real numbers?

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