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PWC Post-Election Observations
By Greg L | 8 November 2006 | PWCRC, Prince William County | 16 Comments
Prince William County provided a few surprises in the election — notably that Jim Webb carried the county. George Allen carried a pretty tough locality like Manassas Park (where uber-liberal Jeanette Rishell narrowly won), but lost in the county. That is quite a surprise. Allen only carried 25 of 64 precincts, excluding absentee ballot precincts, a major disappointment for what should be a county favorable to Republicans.
The county GOP’s focused efforts to elect Corey Stewart paid off with a stunning 53% to 46% victory, carrying 40 of 64 precincts despite being outspent by nearly two-to-one. The Marriage Amendment passed by a surprisingly large margin despite being outspent by four-to-one. It’s hard to buy an election in Prince William County.
Frank Wolf performed slightly better than Tom Davis in their respective portions of the county which is surprising, considering that there was a significant campaign financing advantage in favor of Tom Davis which didn’t effectively exist in the Wolf/Feder race. Was the poorly financed Andrew Hurst just a better candidate than Judy Feder? I would tend to believe so, as Judy “the tiger” Feder appeared to excel at regularly frightening the local populace with her bizarre campaign and virtually ignored Prince William County once it became apparent that she wasn’t going to gain much traction. I’d like to think the Feder campaign’s mini-scandal involving Mr. Bouchillon also helped, but it’s unlikely that the miniscule coverage given to that issue had any measurable effect on the race.
On the other end of the county, Joanne Davis failed to carry her precincts within the county by a margin of about 9 points, which must have been bitterly disappointing.
County GOP performance varied considerably by magisterial district. While efforts were focused to key areas of strength rather than countywide there do seem to be some challenges looking forward in some of these weaker districts. Improving the infrastructure of committed grassroots activists at the precinct level should be a priority, as well as a re-evaluation of strategy for the Occoquan, Neabsco, Dumfries and Woodbridge districts where the most significant weaknesses were observed. The firewall adjoining Fairfax held up, the center was generally firm, but the other end of the county has problems.
That will be a major challenge when the Occoquan Supervisor’s special election comes up to fill the seat being vacated by Corey Stewart. Regardless of whether Mike May, John Grey, or someone else becomes the nominee, they will immediately become the underdog in the race unless something significant happens quickly.
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16 Comments
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Perhaps if the PWC Republican leadership had focused on something other than getting Stewart elected, Mr. Allen would not be drifting towards defeat and we would not be in danger of losing the Senate.
Funny how one minor local party official could end up having a profound effect on how our nation is governed for at least the next two years.
I don’t know why you are calling Manassas Park a tough locality - there is no Democratic party in the city, an active Repubilcan party, and tons of Miller and Allen signs. We don’t have a single Democrat holding elective office at the moment in the city. I assure you, the city is very conservative. The only people it would be tough for would be the Webbs and Feders of the world. Her strong showing was likely neighborly support (she and her husband especially are active in the community) and not because Manassas Park has become a hotbed of moonfruits.
Active Republican party? Is that why I was dropping signs on Manassas Drive and supporting the most recent Manassas Park festival without any local Republican support? Is that why the Manassas City GOP had to organize outside poll workers and campaign sign setup in the park yesterday? Is that why the Manassas City GOP had to draft a call for the 50th convention in June for the park and pay for it to be published? There is a GOP organization in name only in the park, although I’m hearing rumors that might be changing.
I hope they can rebuild, and I’m hoping to get a chance to help them do it.
They were together enough get nominees for the Governing Board elections back in May. At the very least, every single person on the Governing Board is a Republican or a self-described Republican who ran as an independent (Fran Kassinger and Adam Larson said so in their campaigns.) There are no elected Democrats here - that’s not the nature of the community and I don’t think it should be described as a “tough” locality for the GOP. It never has been and it is unlikely to ever be tough for any conservative candidate, whatever the status of the local GOP.
We didn’t have any Webb, Allen, Wolf or Feder signs until the bitter end and they were at the very end. We are just not on their radar in this city. The Rishell signs were everywhere because her campaign saw to it. All they had to do was drive down the street and throw them up. I guess since they want to save them, the real perk is they should disappear quickly as well. Maybe they are going to cross out Delegate and write in mayor or Governing Board or something…
“We didn’t have any Webb, Allen, Wolf or Feder signs until the bitter end and they were at the very end. We are just not on their radar in this city.”
Oh Please. Did you ever think to contact the campaigns? I know for a fact that the Wolf and Allen Campaigns tried repeatedly to get in touch with the Park. It is my understanding that the same situation thing happened in ‘04.
Greg, to your knowledge, was a single call from the Miller campaign to the MPGOP Chairman ever returned?
I’d just like to point out AGAIN that the MPGOP Chairman is none other than Kevin P. Brendel.
You’d think since he lost his bid for city council he’d have more time for his MPGOP duties, but apparently not…
I’d also like to point out that the reason Larson and Kassinger had to run as independents is that Brendel runs the MPGOP as a fiefdom. Back in January or February, when the JM did a story about the city council nominations, Brendel did not give them a specific date or time when the nomination meeting would take place, and I heard that all of about 10 people showed up.
I think Kevin P. Brendel ought to relinquish his chairmanship of the MPGOP.
I heard some complaints about the effective non-presence of the MP GOP in this election, but I really don’t know anything about phone calls not being returned. If they did return phone calls, it never seemed to result in anything actually happening, or anyone from the MP GOP actually showing up to campaign. I have yet to meet or hear from anyone from the MP GOP, although I’ve had some pleasant exchanges with Fran Kassinger. I think I’ve worked with or met at least 20 people from the Manassas City GOP, and I’ve never been to a GOP meeting there.
But regardless of who was returning phone calls or not, I do absolutely know that the only campaign activities that ever happened in the park were planned and executed by the Manassas City GOP or the campaigns themselves. That included all yard sign placements, including those on private property, and all the VRE station campaigning in the park.
I’m hoping that the post-election restructurings involve some improvements in Manassas Park.
The pwc republicans did work hard to get allen elected. The Allen campaign did not call back there list of volunteers until the last few weeks of the campaign. That is why we did not have a good grassroots effort and that is why Allen lost.
Yeah, I did call the campaigns. I know that Wolf’s people were trying and Feder’s people didn’t realize it was its own jurisdiction. I didn’t call the Senate because I was so disgusted by their tone. But I am one voter, an unaligned one now at that. Unless I was offering money, time, or several voters through an organization, Feder’s people weren’t interested. Wolf’s were always gracious.
Batson D. Belfrey, please check your tone. You don’t have attack on every little thing. I am trying to be polite and offer comments and ask questions. I have learned a lot from this board and appreciate your efforts to share local political news, Greg, but it is becoming less enjoyable because of the tone of some of the comments here.
Anonon
I have worked with several good, dedicated Republicans from Manassas Park over the years. You guys have done a good job holding the jurisdiction for the Republican Party despite not having local leadership. But that’s the problem. We need a solid, permanent and dedicated local party to help the isolated volunteers who are trying to hold things together.
I hope the Manassas Republican Party can help you build one.
RHarrison,
Any front line volunteers for the PWCGOP know your attempt to insult our leadership is futile. All our GOP candidates had equal support at a local level. Volunteers including Chairman Kopko worked relentlessly for all candidates. Some traveled to events in Fairfax to help provide much needed support staff for for Davis and Allen, myself being one of them. My support for Allen is unwavering. I am a HUGE fan and worked laboriously to ensure his win.
Here are the facts: Allen did fewer Meet and Greets than Davis and Stewart, he had one young, cocky, inexperienced campaign person assigned to PW. Davis sent in an experienced team and Stewart had the support of local volunteers.
If you want to blame someone let’s talk about all the people who left the poles without voting because of 1 to 2 hour waits, county vehicles that drove around pulling up all the GOP signs and leaving only WEBB signs.
On election day a few extra people showed up at Allen headquarters but not enough to fill the needs as they arised for roamers, runners and at the polls. Did he think the volunteer high school kids phone banking to complete classroom assignments were savvy enough to overcome voter concerns about his re-election? On election day, his 2 staffers arrived 90 minutes late.
As for Tom Kopko, he is probably the best thing that could have happened to the PWCGOP. As for you, maybe if you would have volunteered more you would have seen first hand how hard Tom worked for all our GOP candidates. Next time you want to publically put someone down, make sure you have the facts!
No one can question the dedication or hard work of Russ Harrison without looking pretty foolish. The man is a machine. So skeptic, although I’m sure you worked darned hard yourself, you’re throwing rocks at someone who could not have possibly worked harder to get our candidates elected. I know, because I saw it.
Greg - Thanks.
Skeptic - in just the past few weeks Kopko has managed to publicly embarrass one of our major candidates (Davis) and seriously anger another (Wolf). I don’t know the whole story about Wolf, but I do know Congressman Wolf is a not the kind of man to turn on part of his own team without a good reason. As I understand it, Kopko gave him one. We all know what Kopko did to Davis. PWC is too important to be run by someone who is willing to embarrass our candidates just to ensure that he makes it into the papers.
Also, interesting use of the first person in your first paragraph.
Skeptic:
Russ Harrison is a very hard-working local republican. When I was campaigning, he was kind enough to give me some of his time and he worked like the devil himself was at his heels. He did the same thing for this latest race.
Don’t mess with Russ.
Mr. Harrison, my comments are not meant to diminish your dilligent efforts made in support of our GOP candidates. Kopko isn’t at fault here, Allen’s campaign is.
In the last 6 weeks we constantly ran short of Allen signs. Citizens requested more local appearances to speak to him, especially senior citizen groups. The email communication from his campaign barely trickled in.
When Allen failed to get the endorsements from newspapers he should moved quickly to implement a grass roots campaign. Allen is a casualty of war. It’s bigger than PWC though I’ve beat myself up pretty badly asking what more could I have done.
We as Republicans need to recognize that the days of party loyalty are diminishing and the arrogance of this administration along with bad decisions i.e. Donald Rumsfeld resignation are placing strain on the party and our GOP candidates.
Beginning now we must have a grass roots effort that works to unite and grow our party, educate and recruit young voters, and all others to assure a win 2008.
Allen’s best chance to win would have been to distance himself from G.W. Bush, who is the main cause of the Republican Party’s debacle. (In fact, the main reason I voted for Allen was that he opposed Bush and Kennedy on amnesty for illegals.)
Instead of distancing himself from Bush, I noticed little signs next to some of the ALLEN road signs that said “Supports Bush 90%”. If the Allen campaign was dumb enough to put up these little signs, then they deserve to lose. If it was the Democrats who put up the signs, then they have my grudging respect.