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Connolly Considering Congressional Run
By Greg L | 20 March 2007 | Fairfax County, US Congress | 3 Comments
Gerry Connolly, Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, is telling folks that he won’t promise to stay for another full term if re-elected to the Fairfax Board as he is considering running for congress in the 11th District, a seat now held by Tom Davis. Although he’s somewhat popular among the party loyalists, his record on raising taxes and dismal failure to resolve local transportation problems, and some rather embarrassing missteps will give plenty of ammo for opponents of his re-election to the BOCS as well as any run at a congressional seat. Last years huge primary defeat — he didn’t even win his home precinct — should definitely take some of the shine off his wonder-boy status this year.
The possibility of Connolly having any real shot at the 11th District seat entirely depends on Tom Davis vacating the position in order to run for the United States Senate, as Davis is solidly entrenched in his district and his legislative record matches up pretty well with his constituents. That record wouldn’t be nearly as attractive statewide and Davis would have a difficult time overcoming a challenge from the right in a Republican primary. In order to hold a congressional seat in Northern Virginia, the conventional wisdom seems to be that you run to the center. In order to win Republican primaries in the state, a different strategy of appealing to the conservative base is about the only strategy with a successful track record. A shot at the Senate would be a risky move for Tom Davis, and having an open seat in the 11th Congressional District isn’t a possibility exactly relished by RPV.
Connolly’s hiring of James Walkinshaw, a campaign manager thoroughly experienced in electoral defeat, lends credence to the notion that he’s looking for an opportunity to move up in the political hierarchy, as does his recent comments. In order to get that chance it’s likely that he will have to face Davis head-on, giving Davis a great opportunity to highlight Connolly’s media whoring, his consistent advocacy for tax hikes, and a horrible record on transportation in Fairfax County. At least Walkinshaw knows how to face off against the Tom Davis political machine, as he’s done it before with Andy Hurst. The only problem is that he doesn’t know how to win, or how to effectively deal with being on the defensive in a political battle. Against Tom Davis, Connolly will definitely be on the defensive.
Hopefully Republicans in Fairfax can make Connolly’s re-election campaign for the Board of Supervisors tough and expensive, making it all the harder to devote resources to a later Congressional campaign. Beating Connolly would require a strong candidate who can run a campaign in the mold of Corey Stewart, which should be pretty compelling given the current challenges in Fairfax County. Connolly would be favored, but his position isn’t invulnerable and there are significant weaknesses in his record, ripe for exploitation. And even if Connolly emerges the winner, he might be battered sufficiently to forestall taking on Tom Davis.
Note: when I originally posted this article, I was under the impression that Connolly lived in the 10th District. This article has been updated to correct that mistake and evaluate the very different dynamic at work in the 11th District.
Graphic: perseverando
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Did you… uh… read the story in the Washington Post this morning? Or research what you write? He lives in the 11th CD, and is planning on running IF Tom Davis retires.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/19/AR2007031901815.html
Davis would CLOBBER Connolly, it wouldn’t even be close.
I am not so sure Davis is a shoo-in. His vote against the surge and the vote for federal funding of stem-cell-research has pi…. off most of the true conservatives in PWC. I have held my nose and voted for the cretin even though he has pushed for D.C. voting rights his entire career. But those two votes are what convinced me to do absolutely nothing for Davis’ re-election or run for the senate.