Yeah, like Steve Chapman. That one’s going to bite him in the glutious maximus more than he might believe, especially that second time around.

Since 1999, Colgan has been winning with smaller and smaller percentages as the district experiences significant turnover and more and more people aren’t familiar with Colgan. In 2003 Dave Mabie got 45% of the vote with really no campaign to speak of. It is not unrealistic to expect an aggressive campaign will improve significantly on these numbers, and that’s what Fitzsimmonds is bringing this year.

Colgan is used to running on his record. In this election he is going to have to defend his record. As the longest serving member of the Finance Committee and being on the Budget Conferee, he is going to have to explain why transportation is so underfunded and his go-to solution is consistently calling for higher taxes.

Colgan has to get significant cross over voters to win. In addition to no longer being able to depend on this happening, he will have trouble holding a crucial wing of his own party which is increasingly seeing the GOP as the party of controlled growth.

In 1999 the state GOP did not get involved in the race for the 29th district. This year this seat will be targeted by Richmond. Money is flowing into this campaign unlike previous years and Colgan can’t depend on fighting against an underfunded campaign by a relative unknown as he has in the past.

Colgan’s record on unconstitutionally funding non-state entities leaves him vulnerable as a devotee of state funded pork projects. In previous years that hasn’t been much of an issue, but “bringing home the bacon” (Colgan’s words) is decidedly less appealing to this electorate, and has the potential to be a significant wedge issue.

Just food for thought.

One thing I’ve been reluctant to talk about in much detail here is what happened with his dear friend Harry Parrish. Without going into it, I think that story serves as a strong reminder of the importance of using the time we have on this earth wisely. Harry undoubtedly left much undone while he soldiered on in his service to his community, and through a difficult campaign that obviously impacted his health.

It tore at our community to see that happen. None of us want to see that ever happen again.

Meanwhile the county Republican party is coming off a solid string of victories, has a strong volunteer force, and is supporting a candidate who has already been campaigning quietly for about a year now. Fitzsimmonds spent a lot of time last year working for candidates campaigning within the 29th District and getting his name recognition up. He has far more money than he did in 2003 when he only raised about $12,000. He’s on track to significantly outperform over his ‘99 run, and will be helped by Republican elected officials who exclusively overlap his district. The only Democrat in elected office within any part of that district is now Chuck Colgan.

Portions of the District are represented by Bob Marshall, Jackson Miller, and Scott Lingamfelter — all solidly unapologetic conservatives. The closest thing to a Democrat within that area is Wally Covington. This is one of the most solidly conservative Senate districts in the state.

Yeah, I think Fitzsimmonds has a real shot at a pickup here.

Why to you honestly think Mr. Fitzsommonds could beat Senator Colgan.?

After all, Colgan whipped him by a 16% margin in 1999 when the district was voting far more Republican than it is today.

I’m just curious as to what your rationale is on this.

Thanks.

He can’t be taken lightly.

Fitzsimmonds spoke at Bolling’s event in Richmond last saturday, and he really empasized that THIS is the most important senate race in Virginia. I found him very impressive and spent a few moments talking with he and Boyd Marcus afterwards.

Bob was outlined the incredible machine he has built in terms of organization–perhaps you can speak more to it that I can, but he seems like he really has spent a lot of time building his voter lists, getting volunteers, and doing the hard work

If Cuccinelli, O’Brien, and Devolites all go down, we STILL keep the Senate if everything else is a wash and Bob Fitzsimmonds wins this race. This is the absolute most important race. We keep the Senate if Bob wins–and at WORSE only one of those three is going down now with the Trans bill likely to pass.

Most people I’ve spoken with feel Colgan WANTS to retire. It makes me think his heart won’t be in this race, and sad as it is to say, the man is 80–he won’t be able to campaign like he used too.

This race should be talked about all the time from now on becasue of its importance.