Republican campaigns in the 51st turned in their delegate forms this evening, and the counts are:
Faisal Gill: 745 delegate forms
Julie Lucas: 511 delegate forms
Mail/Other: 32 delegate forms
Depending on the distribution of the forms within the district, there’s a possibility, although not a great one, that some precincts may require mass meetings. Now the credentials committee will process these forms to determine which delegates will be certified, and if any mass meetings are required. From there, it depends on who actually attends the June 2nd convention, and a fight among the convention attendees to determine who the nominee will be.
It’s too early to determine whether there’s a real advantage here for Faisal Gill in these numbers, but there is not any basis to conclude that Julie Lucas has the upper hand here. There’s more to a convention than just signing up delegates. But by the objective criteria available, as it stands right now, Faisal seems to have an advantage if the quality, in terms of how likely the delegates are to attend and vote as they were instructed when they signed up, of his delegates is equivalent to the quality of Julie’s. On June 2nd we’ll know if that’s the case.
In the meantime, I hope delegates will use this interlude to find out more about the candidates. I recommend they make use of google.
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