Sheriff’s Race Wrap-Up
By Greg L | 13 June 2007 | Prince William County | 19 Comments
Yesterday’s primary for Sheriff was a decisive victory for incumbent Glen Hill where he showed strength in all magisterial districts in Prince William County, winning every precinct in Manassas City and Manassas Park, and winning in 61 precincts in Prince William County. The low turnout in this primary election could have produced some surprises, and there are a few very small ones nestled in the precinct-level data, but the data generally points to a conclusion that none of the candidates ran particularly strong campaigns, and the name recognition and power of incumbency carried the election for Glen Hill.
First, the few somewhat notable surprises, which produced results that varied from the larger outcome. Mike Messier carried Alvey precinct in the Gainesville district, with reasonable turnout, and the Sinclair precinct in Gainesville, with very low turnout where not a single vote was cast for Glen Hill. Alvey is Mike Messier’s home base, so carrying this precinct isn’t that unusual. The Sinclair results are a statistical aberration, to the extent that can be said of election results, due to a total voter turnout in the precinct of 24 voters. Jim Fotis actually carried more precincts than Messier (Mountain View, his home base in Gainesville) and two low-turnout precincts in the Woodbridge District (Potomac View and Rippon). It would appear that neither Messier or Fotis really had an effective campaign operation outside of their home precincts, as the margin of victory in most precincts was fewer than twenty votes and either of them should have easily been able to identify that number of voters and ensure they get to the polls.
Had Messier or Fotis done this, they would have taken advantage of the low turnout and gone over the top. In Neabsco and Woodbridge the average number of votes per precinct was less than 50. In Brentsville, Gainesville, Occoquan, and Coles the average number of votes per precinct was less than 100. An effective “ground game” could have swung any of these districts. Only in Dumfries, where the average number of votes per precinct was 185 would this have been somewhat difficult. With a district supervisor’s race in that district turnout was comparatively much higher, and there were rather few “undervotes”, where voters participated in the supervisor’s race but neglected to select a candidate for Sheriff. Convincing margins of victory for Hill in Washington-Reid and Henderson, where turnout was highest, would have made it difficult to swing this district where changing the outcome would have necessitated getting more than 150 voters to these precincts. In Manassas City, the margins were somewhat in between the general county performance and the high-turnout performance in the Dumfries District.
Hill’s strongest performance was in the Coles, Brentsville, Occoquan and Dumfries Districts, and Manassas, where turnout was comparatively the most solid. Jim Fotis ran in second place in Gainesville and Woodbridge, but was still behind Glen Hill, and ran even with Messier in Neabsco, falling to third place elsewhere. In Manassas City and Manassas Park, precinct results were pretty much identical to the overall outcome. In all of these districts Glen Hill prevailed, however, with little indication that he has any weaknesses in any part of the county.
In this race, my take-away is that the candidates were more interested in being Sheriff than being effective politicians. That’s probably a good thing, but Glen Hill is going to have to pay more attention to campaigning in the future, as had he faced an effective campaigner the outcome here could have been rather different. His margin of victory is impressive when you look at it as a percentage, but somewhat less so when you consider raw numbers.
UPDATE: The SBE website has corrected the results from Sinclair, adding another precinct in Hill’s “win” column, and removing it from Messier, who in the end won only his home precinct, whereas Jim Fotis won three. The results listed earlier certainly were a “statistical aberration” — more than I thought they might be.
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Sinclair’s numbers have now been corrected (check the SBE site), to reflect a comfortable Hill win. I saw zero votes for Hill last night and thought “maybe all Sinclair residents were promised badges and guns!” Not so.
Greg - excellent observations. It does seem odd to me that we elect sherrifs and that it is not an office acquired by promotion. Glen Hill, though he did win big, should heed your advice and realize that he may want to, next go around, surround his campaign with politico’s. As long as he does not do this while sheriff (politicize the office), he will continue to be just fine.
I think the BIGGEST lesson here is that our students need a good Civic lesson as well as history lesson as to how important it is to vote…be it primary or convention, DON’T be an observer, rather, be a participant.
Goracle — thanks for that update.
I don’t know if any of you noticed this or not, but the “Fotis for Sheriff” website was pulled within 24 hours of the aftermath of the election. It’s as if Fotis is trying to erase any trace of his failed run for sheriff. There wasn’t the usual “thanks to those of you who supported me with your time and money” courtesy - just a disappearing act.
www.fotisforsheriff.com
It’s now fully apparent that Jim Fotis, Jeff Doyle and Ted Deeds have shown their true colors. A campaign based entirely upon lies, denials, obfuscations and personal insult is no way to get elected. But these guys were so dirty that they apparently believed that they had no other alternative but to distract people away from their record of gross mismanagement at LEAA.
Like rats fleeing a sinking ship, where will they scurry to next?
Jim Fotis has endorsed Glen Hill and pulled his website. I think that’s pretty honorable.
Messier hasn’t said he would support Glen as far as I can tell.
Perhaps MM has retreated the the depths of the bunker with his loyal supporters - which may explain why he hasn’t removed any of his signs yet …
Recent surgery has kept me M.I.A, but I’ve returned for a
final thought on the sheriff’s race. The voters have spoken and
they’ve said that they want the evil incarnate, lying, cheating
women chaser to remain in office, so the voters get what they
deserve. Hey, I am ready to meet my Maker, so I have nothing to fear when it comes to telling the truth and someday,
things are going to catch up with Hill and I hope I will still be
here when it happens. Hill lives in fear that his past will haunt
him as it surely will.
StevenCarnes 6/13..”A campaign based on entirely on lies,
denials, etc…..is no way to get elected”. This is exactly the
means by which Hill was elected. Don’t you get it?
JasonCW, since Hill and his thugs removed almost all of Messier’s signs (as fast as they went up), there shouldn’t be
that many signs for him to remove.
Naked Republican I cant even insult you cause your just sad.
And hello I picked up Hill signs for hours on wed and all the Messier signs were still there.
Greg L , Naked Republicans evil incarnate comment must violate some rule somewere. Check him out please
[Ed note: comment edited.]
No, Pooper. The surgery was heart (at least I have one) and
I still think you should enroll in some classes.
[Ed note: comment edited.]
You are a bit bitter hahahah please put on some clothes and get an f——ing life. Hill won its over.
[Ed note: comment edited.]
NR,
I don’t think that this is simply about being bitter. The citizens spoke and spoke very clearly just as they did four years ago and just as they will again in November. It saddens me that there are people like you living amongst the good folks. Your attacks on Hill are personal and would lead anyone of below average intelligence to conclude that Hill has some way called you out on the dirty person that you really are.
I wish you well in your recovery and I truly mean that. Hatred and grudges will take you to your maker alot sooner than necessary.
[Ed note: comment edited.]
I too wish NP a speedy and full recovery. As a Christian, I believe that we all have a right to our opinions and if that is yours so be it, I forgive you.
vote4hill, it saddens me to think that people like Hill are living
amongst the “good folks” as well. No, my gripe with Hill is
not personal; I just have a very good memory (and not of the
things my deceased brother took with him to his grave) and
know there are some very significant events of the past which
have conveniently been omitted from Hill’s bio. Eventually,
these things will surface.
Thanks for the good wishes for my recovery which, so far,
is on target.
Maybe Naked Republican is George Greene!
Naked Republican, others may choose to give you a pass because of your health but I’m not going to do that. I’m going to suggest that, given your multitude of anonymous (under a pseudonym) and potentially slanderous charges against a highly respected gentleman, it is incumbant upon you to either offer specifics (names, dates, specific incidents, etc.) or your real name so that you may be brought to task so that the truth can become known.
I have nothing against people posting anonymously or pseudonymously on blogs UNLESS THEY MAKE CHARGES THAT ARE INDEED SANCTIONABLE!
Sorry NP I too wish you a speedy recovery, but Sheriff Hill has been one of the most compassionate Sheriffs and individuals that i have ever met. You must have had a bad experience with him and i am sorry for that, but i can only go by my experience, He responds to peoples needs and is a great guy. He has his limits like we all do but i find him to be a fair very even tempered guy.
I really am sorry for you but the entire rank and file is very happy with Hill and the senior staff …….. Get well NP and i hope you can look into your self and see the truth.
I was fairly confident that I would not have to deliver on my unilateral wager to Interested Party. Glad to see my instincts were right. With such low turnout, anything can happen. We’ve seen a lot of reasons recently that conventions can turn into party-damaging circuses. But low turnout is among the strongest arguments against primaries.
Steven Carnes
Fotis’ website is taken down and that equates to an “apparent” dirty campaign? The only thing apparent is that you’ve got a grudge and are prone to name calling. My guess is that Doyle and Deeds will go back to their jobs. I can only speculate as to how you will occupy your time now. I assume it will include lots of sitting on your bottom in front of your computer.