How are the Moderates Breaking
By RHarrison | 18 October 2007 | 50th HOD District | 32 Comments
Having driven all over the 50th District, I’ve noticed something odd. There are far more yards with both Miller and Colgan signs than Colgan and Rishell signs.
What does this mean? Colgan obviously gets most of his support from the left side of the political spectrum. It would seem that Ms. Rishell’s attempts to portray herself as a moderate is failing. Miller is, of course, doing well among conservatives, but is apparently getting a decent amount of support from what ought to be Rishell’s natural base.I don’t know who lives in these houses. Most are probably moderates, but it is possible that some of these folks are liberals turned off by Rishell’s mailings.
Either way, this hurts. Colgan is not going to win the city by much, if he wins it at all. Fitzsimmonds is polling up here better than I had hoped. If Ms. Rishell is losing significant numbers of Colgan’s vocal supporters, she is in worse trouble than I thought. Of course, signs are not an accurate survey of the population. Still, the fact that Miller/Colgan yards out number Rishell/Colgan yards by a bit less than two to one (again, an unscientific sample), suggests that Miller may not just win, but may destroy Ms. Rishell.
Has anyone seen Colgan and Rishell campaign together this year?
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I believe the rumors I have heard about polling. Miller is at 53 percent and Rishell polls around 36. That race is over. The Senate race is very close something like Colgan 46 Fitz 44. Fitz is putting more mail in the box than Colgan. Colgan refuses to campaign driving Kaine and his people nuts. Word is that D’s feel this race could keep control in the hands of the GOP with a 20-20 spit.
Isn’t the opposite true? Colgan still gets support from mainstream moderate to conservative voters who are more of the “established” Prince William voters. There is a tradition that Prince William General Assembly candidates (especially Western) are mainstream, RESPECTED representatives.
I know I grew up pulling the lever for all Republicans and Colgan too!
Don’t know your polling source, but I know Manassas
City politics — Colgan and Miller both win big here.
Miller takes conservatives and moderates - Colgan
wins the liberals and moderates. May kill some of
you guys - but at heart - Manassas is at heart -
a moderate community.
True, signs are only one indicator of support, but it
appears Colgan and Miller have about an equal number -
many in the same yards, Rishell third and
FitzSimmon fourth. (Have yet to see a Rishell/FitzSimmon
tandem - golly, wonder why?).
I saw a few of those Colgan/Miller signs today, I just figured that it was more of the Colgan tactic of putting signs up without permission, as he did at my neighbors house.
P.S. And “Clean it up in 07″ I wouldn’t brag too much about voting for Colgan especially since he thinks that it’s “fair” for NOVA to get only 23% of State Funded Project’s when we pay out about 43% of the state taxes. At Least Bob Fitzsimmonds will fight for our share thats REALLY Fair
Colgan has represented Manassas for over 30 years. He has a ton of Republican support - like almost everyone who voted for Harry Parrish.
Colgan and Parrish ran as a team for decades and those folks still live in Manassas and those folks will still vote for Colgan. Anyone who claims to know Manassas politics knows Colgan wins big there.
The predominance of Miller/Colgan signs means what we all know it means, Colgan and Miller win handily.
Just like in 2003 when most yards had Colgan/Hill signs…..and we all know what that result was for both candidates. I guess, after all the dust settles, the voters really DO know what’s best.
and PWConservative — I’m not bragging about my vote for Colgan…I’m PROUD to say even though I come from a PWC conservative Republican family…I have ALWAYS voted for Colgan.
I’m one of those people who have had the good fortune of knowing our elected reps in our home area, but also seeing them in Richmond in action on a daily basis. I’m telling you as sincerely as I can, we need Colgan back for a term. He works with Marshall and Miller, he’s on the budget conference committee…he is respected by all in Richmond. Fitzsimmonds has been around the GA and not even taken seriously among his peers who are staffers. Republican Caucus members are already joking about him coming back as a member…they LAUGH. He has not served us well in the time he’s had there to lay the groundwork. It’s not enough to just want to “be” the Senator. You have to have credibility to be a Senator in the Commonwealth of Va. If he wins…he’ll be relegated to bad commitees and the “just shut-up corner.” I’m telling you. I talked to a few members today….he’s not taken seriously (and I mean by most GOP members!). Why trade one of the most respected mebbers for that?
On allocation of money, so many funding formulas depend on an entire overhaul of 1) the Budget process 2) the State Contstituion 3) Action by the Dem Governor. I look forward to you telling me the Fitzsimmonds plan on how he will change that in his first term please.
[…] Apparently I am not the only person who has noticed the large number of split ticket yards with signs for Chuck Colgan and for Jackson […]
I noticed the split ticket Miller/Colgan yard signs. Apparently a lot of voters are pleased with the status quo. I haven’t seen many Rishell signs other than her own yard an in the Manassas Drive median. There are very few in yards around Manassas/Manassas Park, and when I drive through Bloom’s Crossing to my home each evening, the only Rishell signs are in her own yard. It looks like once again, she won’t even carry her home district.
Can anyone answer two questions I have?
1. Has anyone seen poll numbers for the Miller/Rishell race or the Colgan/Fitzsimmonds race? I have seen speculation earlier in this post, but are theor any recent, verifiable poll numbers available?
2. I can find little info on the candidates or issues in the PWC Sheriff race. What distiguishes one candidate from the other? I hate to sound ignorant, but this race has pretty much been ignored by the MJM, and there has been scant discussion on this blog.
That Colgan has publicly supported Rishell, a proven liar, suggests to me that he is not the same man who ran for so many years as a team with Harry Parrish, who was a moderate conservative, and who would have never condoned speaking negatively about an opponent, let alone lying about an opponent. I too voted in the past for Colgan. However, I am truely disappointed with Senator Colgan that he has not distanced himself from Rishell and her ilk and for that reason alone could not vote for him. Moreover, Colgan telling us that all these immigrants are not really illegal, that they are all legal Salvadorans, also suggests to me that Colgan is not seeing clearly what is going on around us. While it is legitimate to say that he believes that the country should be totally accepting of this massive wave of illegal immigrants, it makes no sense to tell the people in his district that they are not a problem because they are not really illegals.
I have met Fitzsimmons on numerous occasions during the current campaing and find that he is analyzes the issues with a clear and astute mind and that he conducts himself gentlemanly on all occasions. He will represent us well in Richmond.
I actually have heard Sen. Colgan recently say very nice things about Miller, followed up with how disgusted he was with how Rishell was waging such a negative campaign.
Manassas Park slants heavily for Rishell from what I can see from the yard signs. Considering the park is 80% Hispanic this isn’t a surprise. A little Hispanic guy came knocking on my door lastnight trying to drum up my support for Rishell and I told him to beat it. Miller will always get my vote.
Bob FitzSimmons is popular with a far right
group in the local Republican Party because he
is a proven “gofer” that can be easily controlled.
Moderates - including moderate conservatives -
are supporting Chuck Colgan.
Rishelle doesn’t have a prayer, not even one from her church which doesn’t believe in GOD.
George Bush endorsed Fizsimmonds, so what. Every Republican is required to endorse Fitzsimmonds, even while they are tossing their lunch. Colgan hasn’t worked for Rishelle at all.
The interesting endorsements are the ones by John Chichester and Russ Potts who call Fitzsimmonds an extremist.
Independents don’t have to cow-tow to any party.
Big Dog, thanks for your post. I agree.
Hopw about the fact that 85% of Fitzsimmonds campaign has been funded by Senator Stolle. According to Del. Marshall, Stolle is the one who killed most of the Illegal Immigration legislation. And now he has bought and paid for Bob Fitzsimmonds.
Clean it up in ‘07 said…
“You have to have credibility to be a Senator in the Commonwealth of Va. If he (Fitzsimmonds) wins…he’ll be relegated to bad commitees and the “just shut-up corner.” I’m telling you. I talked to a few members today….he’s not taken seriously (and I mean by most GOP members!). Why trade one of the most respected mebbers for that?”
Ahhhhhhhh, and Fitsimmonds’ support for Faisal Gill doesn’t help his standing with the GOPers either, Clean it up…
BTW, have you noticed all the yards in the 51st District with “O’brien/Nichols” signs? Although not in his district and therefore no opportunity to vote for Colgan, ANY candidate that supports Faisal Gill has one of three major shortcomings: 1) a very poor sense of judgment 2) a serious shortfall in campaign funding or 3) needs a block of guaranteed Muslim voting supporters.
While it’s difficult for many Republicans to support a democrat candidate because of differing philosophies, many Republicans in the 51st District are simply not going to vote because Gill(R) is on the ballot. This serves only to hurt Jay O’brien in the 51st District. Jay O’brien deserves and needs the vote of every single voter (regardless of political party) who opposes illegal aliens and supports the test of “legal presence” to receive state benefits, including attendance at state universities.
Former Colgan Voter…
Colgan “endorsed” Rishell the same way he’s “endorsed” all of the other Democrats running in the area. Just like Republicans are expected to support other Repubs (think Gill), Colgan is expected to back his fellow Dems. I can tell you that the Colgan “machine” hasn’t lifted a finger to actually do anything for Rishell except let his name appear (and, as I said, he didn’t have much choice on that). Take a look at VPAP.org. There’s not a single dime from Colgan (or the Colgan campaign) going to Rishell this cycle (his campaign gave the Rishell campaign $500 for the special election).
Hmmm and Anon 9:57,
Great points, and how does the Illegal Immigration group that strongly support Bob Marshall rationalize the Stolle connection. If they are giving Fitz over $150,000 Stolle is going to own him, lock, stock and barrel..
Any Republican that supports a Dem is threatened with banishment from the party and looked upon as disloyal.
The Dems have the same rules but it is not really driven as
hard as it is on our side.
What ever happened to principles of politics?
According to VPAP, Stolle hasn’t given a dime to FitzSimmonds.
Tim “Hell No I won’t sign 287g” Kaine however has give Colgan lots and lots of money.
Not only did Colgan give $500 to Rishell last cycle, he wrote a letter to the MJM endorsing her. Is the message that he is not really supporting her this time?
I am still a bit troubled that Colgan said that there is no illegal immigration problem in Manassas and that accordingly there is no need to do anything. He also said the issue was complicated (the excuse of those who do not want to address admittedly thorny issues).
Gosh - you mean people are actually thinking about who to vote for instead of pulling a ticket!!!!!
Good gracious - what’s next?
What Colgan has said was the immigration issue is about more than the illegals, we also have a huge population of people here legally from El Salvador because the Federal Governement keeps extending their VISA. Why are they here? When will they be required to go home?
The Federal Governement controls immigration policy in the Country, Not Corey Stewart or Jackson Miller. Miller tried to put a limit on the number of people who could occupy a home when he was on the City Council. It passed and the Feds (HUD) said it was illegal. The Federal Government is required by law to protect the boarders and we have between 12 and 20 Million people in this Country becauce they have failed.
Miller worked hard for Dave M. four years ago before serving in the house. At time for the special election Colgan may have supported RIshelle, but what choice did he have, her or Miller someone who worked hard to unseat Colgan.
It is evident to anyone watching Colgan and Miller have a level of mutual respect for each other. Once they had an opportunity to work in Richmond together. Colgan runs from Rishelle at the same speed Miller runs from Fitzsimmonds. That and the fact that Miller is smart enough to know if Fitzsimmonds wins, the money flowing into this area for roads and schools will simply stop.
We need to stop this double standard business. All over this blog, pick a thread, people are grousing and complaining about those who do not support Republicans and who are in violation of that party pledge.
Senator Colgan has to take that same pledge as a Democrat. He must support all Democratic candidates to the public. What he does behind closed curtains is his own business.
Let’s play fair boys and girls.
JM (8:48 AM)
Answer to your question #2 (re sheriff’s race).
Read “Not All Loonies are in the North”.
Both candidates have web sites, of course, but I’m not too
sure how to access either, but you could probably google
both.
Jackson Miller was one of the speakers at the ribbon
cutting for the fantastic new wing at Hayden Elem.
(Weems, I understand, will have their event very soon).
As always, Jackson did a great job. He will become one
of the up and coming stars of the Va. GOP by winning
big in what appears to be a down year for his
party. Can easily see him moving to the Senate in four
years when Chuck Colgan retires.
The large new library was named for the long time
librarian - the fondly remembered Elizabeth Johnson.
If you get a chance to visit Hayden, be sure to see it,
the new media/computer room and the first class
gym. (Coached youth league basketball
and would have really enjoyed having a facility
like this one.)
A big thanks to the citizens of Manassas for their
investment in our youth.
JM
I only have the info for Louis Dominguez for Sheriff. He can be contacted at.
loiuslgdomiguez@aol.com.
It sure does say something about the kind of guy that Fitzsimmonds is when two of the most powerful men (Chichester and Potts, who happen to be of the same party as Fitzsimmonds) in the General Assembly cross party lines to endorse an honest man like Chuck Colgan. It’s ashame that VA doesn’t have more moderate, sensable politicians like Chichester, Potts and Colgan who are willing to work across the aisle to get things done. Unfortunately the General Assembly is filled with extremists (on both sides of the aisle)…we certainly do not need anymore like Fitzsimmonds.
Thanks for reminding me about those endorsements — I had thought it would deserve a post, but got overtaken by events. These endorsements by Chichester and Potts are a dangerous albatross for Colgan. When we finally convinced these miscreants to not run for re-election, it was an occasion for celebrating all across Virginia.
No matter what happens in the Senate this year, not having Potts and Chichester there will mean it cannot do anything but measurably improve.
sorry Greg, fact of the matter is if Chichester and Potts had endorsed Fitzsimmonds over Colgan you would have been touting it as the greatest thing since sliced bread. And let’s face it, with the exception of the recent tax battle, Chichester actually had quite a conservative voting record. And as far as the endorsement being a “dangerous albatross” for Colgan i beg to differ. Luckily there are enough Republicans in this County who are new to the area and unfortunately don’t have the astute knowledge of VA politics that you do, which means that they more than likely are unaware of the tensions between the far right wing of the (R) party and the more sane, centrist members such as Chichester and Potts and will only see the endorsement by those Republicans for a Democrat as a question of Fitzsimmonds’ capabilities.