Special Election In The 1st CD - UPDATED
By Greg L | 23 October 2007 | Virginia Politics, US Congress | 15 Comments
See important updates at the bottom.
Virtucon is reporting that Governor Kaine has called for a Special Election for the First Congressional District to be held on December 11th, which virtually guarantees that this race is going to be all about money. With little time between the November elections and a convention to select the Republican nominee, the already crowded field of candidates is going to have a hard time putting together campaign teams that are going to be able to sign up a lot of convention delegates unless they can open the cash spigot and hire a bunch of field people. Once the nomination is made, money is going to play a big role in determining who is going to be able to get their message out there and connect with voters.
It’s not a coincidence that Tim Kaine, as Governor has the fundraising advantage here, and to the extent he can rush this election it’s going to help Democrats. On the other hand, this is definitely Republican turf. No matter how much cash Kaine can inject into this district, it’s definitely going to be an uphill battle, and his stable of potential candidates isn’t particularly compelling. Money can’t easily turn Republican districts into Democrat districts, and it only gets harder when there’s no particularly strong candidates to field.
The Republicans who have announced include Chuck Davis (Jo Ann Davis’ widower), well-heeled conservative firebrand Paul Jost, David Caprara, Rob Whittman, blogger James Bowden, Loudoun County transplant Dick Black, and Catesby Jones. There are no announced Democrats, yet. After November 6th we may well see some additional candidates announce. Among the list of potential candidates who may join in after the General Election would include Jeff Frederick and Scott Lingamfelter, who won’t comment on anything other than their current contests at this point.
It’s too early to handicap this race, but after November 6th, it’ll start to become obvious who has the resources to win, and who doesn’t.
UPDATE: The PWCRC is saying that they may hold a mass meeting for as soon as November 8th, which seems to indicate that a convention will be held on November 9th or 10th at the latest. Instead of taking the time to do this right, this is going to be a ramrod convention. I’m calling this as a race between Rob Whittman and Paul Jost who are the only two announced candidates that can get moving on this quickly enough and currently have the resources to get delegates between now and the 8th. This freezes out anyone running in a contested race that will be decided on November 6th.
This is not a confidence-inspiring move.
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Actually, Hirons is reporting this. I am not writing about anything with regard to the 1st Dist. for various reasons.
Early word is time frame is too short for GA members in re-election battles. Rumors out there say that Lingamfelter and Frederick have already thrown in the towel. With Whitman without and opponent for re-election look for him to start steam rolling all the way to the nomination and onto Congress.
This seat is going to be decided in the convention — an organizational contest. I don’t see a credible Dem in the 1st that can win with the demographics. They have the same problem. The only mainstream Dems are in legislative races. Looks like a Davis/Jost/Black contest and you really need to give the edge to Davis at this point.
I hope they take their time to plan and conduct an orderly convention that will instill confidence that the nominee has been fairly chosen. Just because the Special Election will be on December 11th doesn’t mean that this process needs to be rushed.
The last thing we need are lingering questions about the fairness of the process going into a Special Election.
I have heard, but not yet confirmed that SBE is requiring nominees to be chosen by 11/13. That would explain the likely 11/10 1st Dist. Convo date and the 11/8 PWC mass meeting date.
Oh great…another convention process involving Tom Kopko.
Well, we in Loudoun County know just how crafty the Black Brigade can be when it comes to conventions. As much as the vast majority of Loudouners would love to get rid of Dick Black, I would never ever wish him on the good people of the 1st CD. Dick Black is extreme and ineffective, and has long ago passed up any real chance at winning any other elected office. Hopefully he willl be crushed and finally learn his lesson here. Before anyone jumps all over me, I do appreciate his service to our country, but that does not excuse his vile campaign tactics.
Personally, I hope that somehow James Atticus Bowden can drum up some money and support real quick. He would be an awesome Congressman.
Ah yes, AWC…:( …but don’t lose faith, April is coming…:)
It is damning with faint praise to label James Atticus Bowden as simply a “blogger”.
He is a West Point Graduate, retired army officer, and 1st vice chairman of the Va-1 GOP, not to mention holding their seat on the RPV.
Jim may not hold office, but I think he has a little more going for him than most folks think.
Don’t get me wrong — I like James Bowden a lot. I just don’t see him getting an army together in time for this Convention. When your first stab at elected office is a quick-trigger special election, you have to have your machine up and running before the election is called.
Kopko and convention are two words that instill little confidence in the folks in the 1st district. Kopko’s convention expertise is synonymous with Mayberry Machiavellis who sacrifice principles fot political gain. It seldom works twice.
Here are a few things that I thought that I’d mention:
First, Riley is correct that the filing deadline is Nov. 13. This is not simply a date that SBE is requiring — this is what the law says that it must be. Because the Governor issued the writ for the special election more than 35 days before the election, by law the filing deadline must be 30 days before the date of the election (excluding Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays).
So, this would lead most to suspect that the GOP Convention will be on Saturday, Nov. 10. The 1st District GOP Committee is meeting this Friday (Oct. 26) in Saluda to officially set the date, time, location, etc. for the convention. Each locality in the district would then have to issue a call for a mass meeting to elect delegates to the convention, so if PWCGOP is planning on doing this on Nov. 8, this would seem to fit into the calendar.
Obviously, this seems rushed, but the law severely limits the timing of when the election can occur, when the filing deadline is, etc. The upcoming elections on Nov. 6 obviously make everything more complicated, and making it incredibly difficult for anyone in a competitive race to try to run for Congress at the same time.
Since PWC makes up a very small part of the 1st CD, I don’t think that Tom Kopko can influence this convention but so much.
I agree with Greg that Del. Wittman and Paul Jost are likely early favorites for the nomination, due to organizational reasons. That is extremely critical in a convention timeline as short as this one.
However, I must respectfully disagree with something else that Greg wrote, “Instead of taking the time to do this right, this is going to be a ramrod convention.” I have seen no indication (yet) that this is not going to be done in the right way. The convention is likely to be on Nov. 10, but as explained above, it has to be done by Nov. 13. They can’t take much more time. While this might seen ramrod, it is because the law is requiring it to be so.
www.bowditchforcongress.com
Looks like Paul Jost has a website up as of a few minutes ago.
http://www.jostforcongress.com
www.robquartelforcongress.com