Despite having a somewhat imperfect record in calling elections in Prince William County, I’m going to go out on a limb here and make some predictions anyways, some which will make readers happy, and some which won’t. Here’s how I believe the elections in Prince William County are going to shake out, and some not-so-subtle hints about where activists can make a difference if they want to avert some of these potential outcomes.
Chairman: Corey Stewart (R) extends last year’s lead over Sharon Pandak (D) to 56%-44%. The immigration issue resonates with county voters. BVBL poll on this is even more optimistic, putting this at 62%-38%, but I don’t think there’s going to be quite this much crossover, although there’s good reason for it.
Woodbridge: Chris Royse (R) takes a 44% plurality to win, with Frank Principi (D) trailing at 40% and Keen (I) with 10% and Ramirez (I) with 6%. Hilda Barg’s only positive was her constituent service, and Principi can’t get that handed to him along with her endorsement. Again, immigration is the deciding factor.
Occoquan: Mike May(R) edges out John Gray(I) 56%-44% in what shouldn’t have been a difficult battle. John Gray is well known, but Mike May has a good record and the local Tom Davis team on his side.
Gainesville: John Stirrup(R) crushes Corey Riley(D) 61%-39%. This is all immigration policy driven, as this really is a contest between a rookie who is an illegal alien lobbyist and the media darling of the immigration crackdown. Stirrup’s strong record in Gainesville makes him the ideal candidate this year, making this the widest margin of all the uncontested races.
Brentsville: Gil Trenum (R) takes this 57%-43% over Desi Arnaiz (I) in a pretty much party-line vote.
Neabsco: Julie Lucas(R) takes 55%, with Belkacem Hacene-Djaballah(I/D endorsed) and Manes Pierre(I/D endorsed and withdrawn) fighting over the scraps, getting about an equal share. Julie Lucas is the only one here who isn’t in need of heavy doses of psychotropic medication, although they get votes for just not being an “R” in this district.
Clerk Of The Court: Bill Ryland (D) wins with 39% over Michele McQuigg (R) at 34% and Lucy Beauchamp (I) at 27%. Beauchamp gets her revenge by peeling enough away from McQuigg to hand this to the Democrats. BVBL poll participants disagree, saying this will sort out McQuigg winning with 42%, with Ryland at 38% and Beauchamp at 20%. Last time I differed with my reader’s poll results, they called it and I was wrong.
Sheriff: Glen Hill (R) beats back Louis Dominguez (I/D endorsed) in a surprising 56-44% showing by Dominguez, who worked hard, but was terribly under-funded.
Commonwealth’s Attorney: Paul Ebert cruises to victory, but Ham Sandwich write-ins get an embarrassing 10% of the vote in a heavily under-voted race. Make a campaign sign to put in your precinct for Ham Sandwich in order to make this even better! While BVBL readers support Ham Sandwich by 75%, that’s 75% of only 114 votes, currently. To make a bigger dent in this, a lot more people have to learn about the qualifications of Ham Sandwich!
House of Delegates
13th District: Bob Marshall (R) defeats Bruce Roemmelt (D) 54%-46% with about the same dynamic as the last election in this district. BVBL readers are calling this as Marshall by 52%-48%, which I think somewhat understates the finance differential and the effect of the Marriage Amendment.
31st District: Scott Lingamfelter (R) defeats Bill Day (D) 57%-43%. Lingamfelter knocked an unreal amount of doors, and Day is a kook. It shouldn’t have even been this close.
50th District: Jackson Miller (R) defeats Jeanette Rishell (D) 55%-45%. The immigration issue drives this, and brain-dead crossover votes (such as Stewart/Rishell) are far fewer this year as voters know the candidates better than last year. BVBL readers are calling this by a bigger margin of 63%-37%, which understates Rishell’s hard campaigning efforts.
51st District: Faisal Gill (R) and Paul Nichols (D) end up in a statistical 50%-50% tie. Nichols’ lackluster campaign fails to capitalize on opportunities, and Gill exceeds expectations. In the end, Faisal Gill wins. BVBL poll participants give Nichols the edge 78%-22%, but this poll is skewed by heavy participation earlier in the campaign. I think the dynamic has changed considerably since then.
52nd District: Jeff Frederick (D) defeats the outclassed Chris Brown (D) 54%-46%. Immigration plays less a role in this race than some others, but Frederick’s strong financing and outstanding campaigning skills puts this beyond reach for Brown.
28th District: Richard Stuart (R) wins 51%-49% over Al Pollard (D) in a race where the Northern Neck almost ties, and Fredericksburg and Fauquier give Stuart a narrow edge. BVBL readers are calling this one 50%-50%.
29th District: Bob Fitzsimmonds (R) barely upsets Chuck Colgan (D) 51%-49% in the race that shuts Democrats out of gaining control of the Senate.
39th District: George Barker (D) knocks out Jay O’Brien (R) 52%-48% in the biggest disappointment of the election. Turnout in Prince William County doesn’t get high enough to offset Barker’s advantage in Fairfax County. If you’ve got time, this is the most important race to focus on.
Control Of The Senate
Republicans retain the majority in the Senate 21-19.
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