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Manassas-Manassas Park Post-Election Analysis

By Greg L | 7 November 2007 | 29th VA Senate, Manassas Park, Manassas City, 50th HOD District | 63 Comments

Manassas is a pretty solidly Republican area with strong affinity for long-time Senator Chuck Colgan, and a jurisdiction where the immigration debate has been hot and heavy, especially with the construction of the “Liberty Wall” billboard in the city’s historic district.  The 50th District rematch with Jackson Miller and Jeanette Rishell was largely a referendum on the immigration issue, and allowed Miller to deliver a 63%-37% drubbing of Jeanette Rishell, despite being out-worked and out-spent.  Last year the margin in Manassas was about 10%.  This time, Jackson carried every precinct in the city, and took Dean by a factor of more than a 2-1.  This has got to be an embarrassing defeat for Rishell, who still hasn’t conceded this race to Jackson despite the landslide.

The dynamic for the 29th Senate was much different, as it’s hard to make a Colgan/Fitzsimmonds race a referendum about immigration policy.  With his long tenure in the Senate and personal ties to so many Manassas City voters, immigration policy was a factor, but not a decisive one.  Still, this is a race that shouldn’t have been anywhere near close for the Senate’s most senior member, and the 58%-42% victory in Manassas is hardly a stellar performance for Colgan.  Colgan carried every precinct, but by a smaller margin than Jackson Miller in all but the Baldwin precinct.  The popular ticket here was Colgan/Miller, which is no surprise at all, but the expectation was that Colgan would lead Jackson Miller, not trail him.

Last year Jeanette Rishell carried Manassas Park by a small margin.  This year she lost the park by 124 votes (about a ten point margin) in a very low-turnout election where only 26% of registered voters showed up, which is about 30% less than the turnout in Manassas City.  Rishell lost both precincts, one of which is her home precinct.  Ouch.  Colgan got more votes Jackson Miller in this jurisdiction, as expected.

These two jurisdictions contributed to a 1,671 vote lead for Jackson Miller, and a 1,065 vote lead for Colgan.  The new political power broker in Manassas and Manassas Park is clearly Jackson Miller, who shouldn’t draw a challenger in the next election given this strong electoral performance, if Democrats have any sense at all in the 50th District.  If Colgan serves out his full term, which I don’t expect he will, he certainly will not run for re-election, and now has the privilege of running behind the popularity of a junior member of the House of Delegates.

That’s not a very stunning victory for the new Senate majority’s most senior member, but the huge smack-down of Jeanette Rishell sure is.



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63 Comments

  1. Carlton Huffman said on 7 Nov 2007 at 2:21 pm:
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    As a follow up to my earlier comments I would like to say that the time is now for the Republican Party in Virginia to get up, shake off the effects of our losses, and go to work in Richmond for Virginians in promoting a conservative agenda. The GOP suffered from a lack of a coherent agenda in part because of the efforts of people like Sen. Chichester and Sen. Potts who are now banished from the temple and appropriately so. Conservatives and Republicans alike must now wake up and smell the roses. If the Democrats manage to make gains next year in the US Senate race and congressional races, then Virginia will be headed along a familiar path that one need only look at Maryland to know what’s ahead for us. Governor O’Malley is fighting to raise every tax under the sun and Tim Kaine will push as far as he can get to fund his expansion of education programs in this state. Tim Kaine and Co. tell us that Virginians are tired of deadlock and partisan fighting. Well let them know that there are some principles that are very much worth fighting for and we’re not giving an inch of ground on what we stand for.

    A move will be made to say that Republicans must moderate on social issues and give into the urge to raises taxes to fund state programs. These moves must be resisted outright because as Barry Goldwater said “Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.” And among those liberties is the right to life of all the unborn. Also among those liberties is the right to keep and bear arms and that as true in downtown Fairfax as it is in the remotest part of the Shenandoah Valley. It is a long road ahead and there will be still more setbacks as we march on. This Commonwealth that gave us Washington, Jefferson, Mason, Madison, Henry, and Monroe must not become just another blue state. It is our state, it is our home, and in our home freedom must reign.

    In the coming weeks Virginians on the right must applaud our successes but rest not. Mark Warner is coming for the Senate and Hillary Clinton will be riding in not far behind him. If you like what you see in the governance of the Blue states then vote accordingly. But as for me I choose the rights of free men under God that my ancestors shed blood for in the Revolution and the War Between the States. Who’s with me?

  2. Anon said on 7 Nov 2007 at 2:24 pm:
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    Here is where I would disagree that the expectation was that Colgan would lead Miller. Miller was on the ballot just last year. Many of the voters are accutely aware of who is and what he stands for. Colgan hasn’t been on a ballot in 4 years and since that time thousands of new people have moved in to the district. We live in a very transient area with the government and military being such large employers. I would dare say that more people knew Jackson Miller before this campaign season than new Chuck Colgan.

  3. redawn said on 7 Nov 2007 at 2:29 pm:
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    Good point Anon

  4. Pat Herve said on 7 Nov 2007 at 2:43 pm:
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    Well,

    The votes are in, and Colgan won.

    Now, what to do about Illegal Immigration - the actions taken by the PWC BOS will be struct down as unconstitutional, and racial profiling. The FED’s have shown that they are not going to address the issue.

    It is time, that WE - you and me - act -

    If you hire someone to do work, demand that all there workers are here legally. They should be able to provide birth certificates and drivers licenses, immigration papers if they were not born here.

    Do not pay cash for a job - paying cash allows them to circumvent the tax system (and pay under the table).

    Only hire reputable companies with a history.

    Get the existing zoning ordinances Enforced - hound them everyday about ordinances which are being violated - become a pain in the ass, and the county will have to respond - have your neighbors call.

    Get your HOA to enforce the rules.

    Have a rooming house nearby, find out who owns the house, and start to pester him/her at their residence. They will fix the problem pretty soon, if all their neighbors start to find out that they are allowing illegals to room at their property.

    Why are the illegals here - because WE are employing them.

  5. Krutis said on 7 Nov 2007 at 2:52 pm:
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    How can you say that a win of 58% to 42% isn’t a stunning upset; a 16% spread! Why can’t you give Colgan the credit he deserves? How many % spread counts as a stunning upset in your book?

    Carlton Huffman - “I choose the rights men of free men under God …” I’m in awe!!! Do you have a pulpit somewhere?

  6. MRCSA4LIFE said on 7 Nov 2007 at 3:01 pm:
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    No pulpit here. Just a basic understanding of government and liberty is all.

  7. Mando said on 7 Nov 2007 at 3:02 pm:
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    I wasn’t aware that all our progress hinged on Fitzsimmons?

    I don’t see our efforts being struck down as unconstitional. Oklahoma as a case in point.

  8. MRCSA4LIFE said on 7 Nov 2007 at 3:04 pm:
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    And besides, even if Fitzsimmonds didn’t win, the main point is that Stewart did and hopefully the illegal aliens will leave Prince William Co.

  9. Mando said on 7 Nov 2007 at 3:05 pm:
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    Seems like a LOT of spin going on here. I believe everyone knew Colgan would win. He’s the embedded incumbant.

    Everyone on our side, besides Colgan, won. At least in PWC.

  10. Patty said on 7 Nov 2007 at 3:06 pm:
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    Pat,

    Those methods you mentioned have been tried and they’ve failed. That is why we needed the resolution.

    Do you really think employers that hire illegal aliens are going to wake up one day and say to themselves that it is wrong to hire illegal aliens and that they will only hire legal residents? Please, should we have the fox watch the hen house?

    Zoning has no enforcement power to deal with overcrowding. As soon as they say they are all related then there is nothing zoning can do period! This county has tried that the last several years and it didn’t work.

    This problem didn’t happen overnight and the legal residents of this county have been trying to fight it for a long, long time. The resolution was a result of all other measures failing big time. We have a real serious problem with illegal aliens in this county. So, we need real serious solutions to combat this problem.

    The resolution is all about enforcing existing laws - laws that are already on the books. I don’t think it will get struck down.

  11. Mark W. Weaver said on 7 Nov 2007 at 3:08 pm:
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    Carlton Huffman,

    I don’t know you, but I would like to. I could not have expressed things any better.

    I am with you. The fight has only begun. There is a multitude of people whose worldviews need changing. Many, many Americans have either bought into the socialist lie, or they are just too self-absorbed to notice that the freedoms they take for granted are rapidly slipping away.

    As Samuel Adams so aptly wrote: “It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people’s minds.”

    Igniting Brush Fires in American Minds:

    http://kingdom-church-culture.blogspot.com/2007/11/igniting-brush-fires-in-american-minds.html

  12. 999 said on 7 Nov 2007 at 3:30 pm:
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    Krutis on 7 Nov 2007 at 2:52 pm:

    Krutis, you should be on the stage. It leaves in 5 minutes!

  13. Vigilant1 said on 7 Nov 2007 at 3:33 pm:
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    Pat Herve said on 7 Nov 2007 at 2:43 pm:

    Now, what to do about Illegal Immigration - the actions taken by the PWC BOS will be struct down as unconstitutional, and racial profiling.

    **************************************************
    What makes you think the actions will be struck down? How different are they from the actions taken by Oklahoma and have been upheld by a federal judge and have been in effect since 1 November?

  14. Advocator said on 7 Nov 2007 at 3:34 pm:
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    Pat Herve:

    You’re tripping if you think “pestering” is going to get rid of the flop houses. Enforcement of federal law, that makes harboring an illegal alien and hiring one felonies, will get rid of the flop houses as well as the monkey roosts next to the Coverstone 7-11 and on Route 1. We don’t need more laws, we need more enforcement of existing laws.

  15. Big Dog said on 7 Nov 2007 at 3:45 pm:
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    Greg,
    Am worried you might tilt over and hurt
    yourself - you are spinning so hard.
    The Republican party in Manassas is far
    stronger than the Dems who, for years, have had little
    or no formal structure in the city - the GOP has their
    mass meeting in the largest auditorium in Manassas
    while the active Democrats could meet in a lunch booth
    at McDonald’s. Every elected municipal official
    - save one Independent - is a Republican. Anyone
    not running as an “R” has some strong head winds to
    overcome in any Manassas election.
    Give credit where credit is due - Senator
    Colgan won his “Last Hurrah” in fine fashion.
    He is beloved and respected here and in Richmond.
    God bless him.

  16. Dolph said on 7 Nov 2007 at 3:47 pm:
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    After reading everyone’s posts, I am wondering how the resolution is going to really get rid of illegal aliens. Everyone seems to be discrediting everyone else’s ideas.

    I do not see how the resolution shores up things any better than what Pat has said.

    How does the resolution make the zoning codes more enforceable?

    How does the resolution curtail hiring illegal aliens?

    I do think that 287(g) program will make it easier to deport criminals who are illegal aliens. This is a good thing. I believe the resolution really is more symbolic than substantive.

    Change must take place at the federal level before localities can do much of anything.

  17. Turn PW Blue said on 7 Nov 2007 at 3:52 pm:
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    Greg–

    Not sure you can ascribe Miller’s victory to a “solidly Republican Manassas-Manassas Park” as much as it was a really shoddy Democratic candidate who has proven twice now to be the wrong choice. A strong, centrist Democrat would have faired much better, I’m sure.

    As for Colgan “squeaking by,” I’ll echo sentiments already raised here…If his district is turning more Republican (as you claim), then a 16-point margin over the party of choice is a pretty big win. Colgan carried EVERY precinct. This isn’t some case where one of two strong showings overcame weakness elsewhere in the district. Colgan swept FitzSimmonds and whooped him good.

  18. Dolph said on 7 Nov 2007 at 4:04 pm:
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    Big Dog,

    I am simply calling for some graciousness which I have seen very little of during the election postmortums. I feel like too many people are still waving the bloody shirt.

    Greg does dismiss a clear win. Rather than castigating Senator Colgan for not winning by more, perhaps he should be doing some chest thumping of his own for one of the best swift-boatings I have seen in a long time.

    The bottom line is, the one with the most marbles at the end of the day wins. It does not matter if it is 1 marble or 1 thousand marbles. The outcome is the same.

  19. Dolph said on 7 Nov 2007 at 4:05 pm:
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    Big Dog, I failed to mention that I do agree with you. Turn PW Blue, ditto.

  20. Advocator said on 7 Nov 2007 at 4:11 pm:
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    Dolph:

    You say, “I do think that 287(g) program will make it easier to deport criminals who are illegal aliens” and then go on to say, “I believe the resolution really is more symbolic than substantive.”

    Deportation of criminal aliens is a pretty substantive step. Prior to the Resolution, many of them, save for the “worst of the worst,” were being released back into our community.

    It’s a step, not a panacea. We’ve got a lotta work to do.

    One thing everyone could do is contact Frank Wolf and Tom Davis and urge them to co-sponsor (as 89 other Representatives have already done) Heath Shuler’s bill, HR 4808, that would provide for immigration reform by securing America’s borders, clarifying and enforcing existing laws, and enabling a practical employer verification program. It’s unfortunate that we have to rely upon Representatives of other jurisdictions to sponsor and co-sponsor legislation that we so sorely need in this area.

  21. Rob Smalls said on 7 Nov 2007 at 4:12 pm:
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    I think it’s a little spin-happy to call the 16-point margin in Colgan’s win anything but decisive. I consistently saw his message more, he’s the incumbent who ran on his record, and I didn’t get the impression the FitzSimmonds campaign was pushing for any particular platform more than just voting Colgan out. Except for illegal immigration, I didn’t see Fitzsimmonds seriously challenge much of Colgan’s record.

    I did vote for FitzSimmonds, but seriously, he lost in a pretty big way, and I think Colgan’s campaign and incumbency obviously made that happen. And hopefully - to echo some of the other commenters - the more conservative positions Colgan took in response to the FitzSimmonds campaign will be realized in his actions during new term. If Colgan is the honorable Virginia gentleman all his supporters say his is, I look forward too seeing him in action against illegal immigration.

  22. All American said on 7 Nov 2007 at 4:19 pm:
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    Colgan beat FitzSimmonds by a larger percentage then he beat Mabie. That is with 40,000 new people in the district.

  23. Bwana said on 7 Nov 2007 at 4:21 pm:
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    That 16 point is in Manassas…for the entire district it was 54-46, which I would also label decisive, while not a landslide.

  24. TC said on 7 Nov 2007 at 4:32 pm:
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    Colgan beat mabie in 2003 with 53.21 to 46.78. Any claim that he should have won bigger this year is misleading.

  25. Manassasinsider said on 7 Nov 2007 at 4:37 pm:
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    Turn PW blue, Rishell ran a very high energy campaign, and she ran very hard as a centrist/moderate (even though we knew she wasnt).. I would not call her a shoddy candidate at all. She raised more money than Miller and (by Miller’s own admission) worked a harder.

    Miller appeals to the moderates as well as conservatives. He also works very hard on his campaigns. I dont think a centrist would have beaten him, but you are right - a centrist may have fared a little better.

  26. Rob Smalls said on 7 Nov 2007 at 4:43 pm:
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    Manassasinsider-
    I would call any candidate with such an obvious allergy for the truth a shoddy one. Despite her energy, despite working harder, her campaign mailings were consistently proven false and no one could defend them honestly. Shoddy is indeed the perfect word for her bygone candidacy, because it so accurately describes the facade she tried to sell the voters. It was a shoddy facade that was easily deconstructed.

  27. dolph said on 7 Nov 2007 at 5:32 pm:
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    Advocator,

    You are right, I should have said other than the 287(g) part of the the Stirrup resolution. ‘

    I would like to learn more about the house bill you mentioned (which I am too lazy to go back up to source now). As you find out more details, please post them. Thanks.

  28. Bob Wills said on 7 Nov 2007 at 5:53 pm:
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    Mark W. Weaver said on 7 Nov 2007 at 3:08 pm:
    Carlton Huffman,

    I don’t know you, but I would like to. I could not have expressed things any better.

    I am with you. The fight has only begun. There is a multitude of people whose worldviews need changing. Many, many Americans have either bought into the socialist lie, or they are just too self-absorbed to notice that the freedoms they take for granted are rapidly slipping away.

    The freedoms that are being taken away by the so called conservatives is the right to move and live where we want in this country. the Stewarts, Fredericks, Mays and Stirrpups who are new immigrants want to take away that right and stop people from moving in to new homes in PWC. If someone had told them they were not welcome and could not move into the county they would have raised Holly Hell. where are thier children going to live if they are going to be restricted from living where they grew up? What a LIBERAL idea that someone else ( builder ) is going to pay for Proffers ( Extortion) and not the home owner who buy the house. The builder gets a full tax deduction but the home owner gets nothing except a higher cost. Stewart and Frederick are so stupid that they want you to believe that 30- 40 % of the new homes being built are going to pay for 100% of the cost of Capital Improvments.

    If you look at the Stokes rezoning in December ‘06 and in March ‘07of this year you can see the public record that show an African American in this county has to pay a higher price then a white man to get property rezoned. So much for obeying the law and the Constiution of America.

    Believe the CONMAN ( POLITICIANS )and you will get screwed each and every time

  29. Matt said on 7 Nov 2007 at 6:20 pm:
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    If you look closely enough at the numbers in the 50th it is clear that Rishell failed to motivate the base she gained last year.

    The margins in every precinct changed dramatically in Miller’s favor and this cannot be attributed to ‘07 being an off year election. How do you go from losing by 5% to losing by 20% in 1 year?

    I think many things contributed to this major reversal. 1) Rishell should have spent every moment possible between January and May contacting each person who voted last year to gather useful intelligence about their motivations, choices, and tendancies; 2) It is clear that Rishell did not build any organization at the precinct level or her turnout would have been much higher. This could have been accomplished with the intelligence gathered as part of item 1; and 3) Most importantly Rishell allowed her campaign to be hijacked by DPVA and Richmond operatives, people who don’t know the district, issues, motivations, and concerns of people who live in the 50th.

    DPVA turned this into a negative campaign and turned Rishell’s likliest supporters away from her; not necessarily to Miller, but likely encouraged them to stay home.

    DPVA drove Rishell and Brown in the 52nd into the ground. Frederick won by his largest margin yet against an opponent completely funded by Richmond in a district that has been trending Democratic. Both of these races are prime examples of why no candidate would want DPVA to get involved with their races.

  30. Turn PW Blue said on 7 Nov 2007 at 6:35 pm:
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    Rishell may have “campaigned harder” and raised more money, but she didn’t campaign smart. She spent money on attack mailers that proved false (*that* money alone would have been better unspent). She reversed from positions she held less than a year ago. As Matt pointed out, she let the DPVA agenda hold too much influence on her campaign.

    Please don’t confuse motion with action.

    A centrist may not have been able to beat Miller, but probably would have forced Miller to be more active in the campaign. As it worked out, Miller really didn’t have to work too hard because Rishell kept shooting herself in the foot.

    In any case, I don’t believe that Greg’s statement that Manassas is pretty solidly Republican based on the results of this election. I think once you get to the local level, the letter next to the name has bearing but not nearly as much as it does on the level of Congressman, US Senator, or President. While there are always party-line voters, there is a sizable population of non-affiliated voters who will switch parties on a dime given the right candidate and the right motivation. The fact that FitzSimmonds couldn’t get a SINGLE precinct is also evidence that there is no Republican hegemony.

  31. 999 said on 7 Nov 2007 at 6:39 pm:
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    ENFORCE THE ZONING LAWS AND IF THEY ARE NOT SUFFICIENT TO CURB OVERCROWDING, CHANGE THE LAWS AND INCREASE THE FINES. THEY (THE ILLEGALS AND THOSE SUPPORTING THEM) WILL SOON GET THE MESSAGE.

  32. Lafayette said on 7 Nov 2007 at 6:48 pm:
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    999,
    Ditto!!

  33. Vigilant1 said on 7 Nov 2007 at 6:50 pm:
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    Colgan is looked upon with reverence by most of the people in his district. He is a gentleman to the core and has the respect of the populace. True, some of the things he has or has not done re illegal immigration hurt him some but not deep enough to count with most people. Maybe he will see the light and look at his old neighborhood and see what illegals have done to it. There are three houses in a row across from where he lived in Westgate that are for sale and awaiting the next batch of illegals or their supporters to move in. Se Habla Espanol as the signs say. His old house where he raised his family is also in this category.

  34. Vigilant1 said on 7 Nov 2007 at 6:54 pm:
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    Advocator on 7 Nov 2007 at 4:11 pm:

    I sent Wolf a fax re the SAVE ACT sponsored by Heath a couple of weeks ago asking him what his stand was and if he was going to co-sponsor the bill. Never heard back from him and I don’t see his name on the bill as a co-sponsor. Hmmmmm

  35. TC said on 7 Nov 2007 at 6:55 pm:
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    Matt, I agree with you. Rishelle got shellacked and while she was ultimately responsible for it as the candidate, it was because of outside influences in Richmond, and by a weak ground game.

    Sort of what happened to JMDD in Fairfax, with a terrible gaff with her mailer against Chap. Not to mention other desperation moves, but that’s beside the point.

    Given the huge margins for Colgan compared to past elections, and that Stewarts gain was basically non existent from last year, well, the illegal immigration thing is sort of all hat and no cows, to use a cowboy analogy.

  36. Vigilant1 said on 7 Nov 2007 at 7:05 pm:
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    dolph on 7 Nov 2007 at 5:32 pm:

    Here is some info on the SAVE ACT sponsored by Shuler…

    http://proprietornation.blogspot.com/2007/10/save-act-finally-some-sensible.html

  37. Lafayette said on 7 Nov 2007 at 7:08 pm:
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    Vigilant1
    Maybe, Chuck will finally visit his old neighborhood, and those that voted for him. Better yet just take action against ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION. I’ll be watching for both to happen.

  38. Anonymous said on 7 Nov 2007 at 7:36 pm:
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    You know what Greg, you are nothing but a bitter, angry, sore right wing hack who is looking for every excuse in the book as to why Fitzsimmonds lost. Why can’t you just except the fact that he was a BAD candidate who couldn’t even carry his home precint and this is the same candidate who knocked on 10,000 doors. As someone who voted for Colgan I would just like to say thanks Sideshow Bob for the help. You say Colgan had a close race??? If you want to talk about a close race then let’s talk about Cuccinelli’s race…Sideshow Bob must be an even better “Legislative Director” than he is candidate!! Now that he’ll be out of a job there maybe he can go fetch coffee for some other senator, probably in some southwestern Virginia town where he can run in four years and lose for the FIFTH time.

  39. manassascityresident said on 7 Nov 2007 at 7:51 pm:
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    Anonymous said on 7 Nov 2007 at 7:36 pm:

    WOW! Who’s sounds bitter, angry, and sounds like a left wing loonie?
    ….perhaps you’re just a little angry because Rishell lost so badly last night?

  40. One Voice said on 7 Nov 2007 at 7:56 pm:
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    999/Lafayette -

    Both right on the money. Use the existing ordinance/laws on the books to work FOR us. No need to write new laws for this, must stay on top of zoning to do their jobs.

    From what I’ve seen here, Lafayette has almost single handedly managed this process for some time. Others have helped, but she seems to be consistantly calm and cool resulting in being very effective. Sticking to the simple argument usually wears everyone down and in this case it’s in her favor. GREAT work - I don’t live there but I’ve been through lately. Bit different than my first drive through in July.

    The NYC crime reduction plan used for zoning right in Manassas. It was a terrific theory and even more terrific outcome.

  41. South Side Observer said on 7 Nov 2007 at 8:22 pm:
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    Matt and TC,

    Does this blowout have everything to do with Rishells poor performance? I heard part of the reason for this ‘knockout punch’ is that Miller was also a pretty strong candidate in his own right. I heard his campaign was much more visible this year compared to last. He also earned a pretty decent reputation in Richmond for a first term freshman.

    Any comments on this from you guys up in PWC?

  42. AWCheney said on 7 Nov 2007 at 8:37 pm:
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    SSO, that is precisely why Rishell could get absolutely no traction against Jackson Miller with her lies. EVERYBODY was coming to his defense and setting the record straight…it was unnecessary for him to utter a word.

  43. TC said on 7 Nov 2007 at 8:43 pm:
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    My personal opinion is that its the result of a few really poor decisions and not being able to over come them. From what I understand, and I can’t confirm this but it’s what I hear, is that she refused to go negative last year. Personally, I wish more candiates would do that but thats beside the point. But, not going negative still brought her a pretty good showing in an area where it’s difficult for democrats unless you are 30 year moderate incumbant :)

    This year, she took the advice of her handlers to go negative. Negative campaigning it always a complaint of the citizens, but the bottom line is that it can work. It can also go too far, and thats what happened here, obviously.

    Jackson is a nice guy, and he’s in the right party for the area. His performance thoughtout the year was without many flaws, though I thought his mocking tone at one of the debates was very petty, but that played to his base. All in all, he won fair and square.

  44. Anonymous said on 7 Nov 2007 at 8:54 pm:
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    manassascityresident said on 7 Nov 2007 at 7:51 pm:
    Anonymous said on 7 Nov 2007 at 7:36 pm:

    WOW! Who’s sounds bitter, angry, and sounds like a left wing loonie?
    ….perhaps you’re just a little angry because Rishell lost so badly last night?

    au contraire manassascity resident. Like many in the district I split the ticket and voted for Colgan/Miller. I’m no left winger. I found the negative campaigns runs by FitzSimmonds/Rishell so much alike I wasn’t going to vote for her. Her mailings were discusting and if you got one of her phone calls you knew she lied even more than in the mailings.

  45. Patty said on 7 Nov 2007 at 9:04 pm:
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    There seems to be a need for some education here. Lafayette mentioned this on a previous thread. Our zoning laws are restricted by the state. We are a Dillon rule state which means local governments can only do what the state gives permission to do. That is why the state elections are important. I mentioned to Billy Boy that Mr. Colgan needs to keep his promise of cracking down on illegal aliens. It would go a long way if some zoning laws are changed so that we can have real enforcement at the local level - enforcement that would have teeth to it.

    Billy Boy, if you are out there, I have a question for you. Maybe it is something we can wholeheartedly agree on. Are you a Redskin fan? And if you are a Cowboy fan, I would rather not know about it. Okay.

  46. Patty said on 7 Nov 2007 at 9:09 pm:
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    Billy Boy,

    Are you out there?

  47. Turn PW Blue said on 7 Nov 2007 at 9:11 pm:
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    SSO…Jackson Miller was well-positioned for this race, but not an unbeatable candidate. Rishell’s shot to beat him was the special election. Someone else should have been recruited to face him this year. As much as this blog has pointed out the failings within the Prince William Republican Party hierarchy, we Democrats were not in good shape to take advantage of some of those weaknesses. Prince William Democrats (and Manassas and Manassas Park Dems) will need to do a much better job in two years fielding candidates who can pose a serious challenge, not just serve as cannon fodder. To challenge the likes of Miller and Marshall and Frederick, we would need to field candidates who have broader appeal and know their constituencies (not what DPVA tells them). Frederick is the most vulnerable (based on precincts in his district that support Webb and Kaine) followed by Miller then Marshall. All, though, could be vulnerable to the right candidate and some real work by the Democratic Party grassroots (just look at the results from normally conservative parts of Virginia Beach and Hampton Roads where Democrats prevailed–no one in untouchable).

    Both parties have the distinct problem that their leadership by its very nature is going to fall at the more extreme ends of the political spectrum and as a result will alienate the actual people who vote because they fall somewhere in between. Add to that the daunting task of raising the incredible sums of money it seems to take to run a campaign and you severely limit those who will run to the independently wealthy or the die-hard party ideologues. So much for the citizen legislator.

  48. Lafayette said on 7 Nov 2007 at 9:12 pm:
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    Patty,
    I think he is. Perhaps he will confirm this. I hope he comes around I have a couple of things I’d like to ask and tell him myself.
    Billyboy,
    Welcome back. Patty was looking for you for days, sir.
    Have contacted Dolph yet? I bet she’s waiting to hear from
    you, too.-lol

  49. Patty said on 7 Nov 2007 at 9:27 pm:
    Flag comment

    Lafayette,

    I left a message on the previous thread for him to come to this one. I guess if he is not here, maybe we will hear from him tomorrow. Almost time for shut eye for me. I stayed up too late last night trying to keep track of election results. I wanted to wait for Stonewall. Thanks for doing a great job!!!!

  50. Billyboy said on 7 Nov 2007 at 9:40 pm:
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    Patty,

    Yes, I am big Redskin Fan, just saw Dolph’s post and will contact her in the AM. Long night last night, need some sleep.

  51. dolph said on 7 Nov 2007 at 10:16 pm:
    Flag comment

    Turn PW Blue,

    There is also the fact that it takes a special person to go out there and have the proverbial crap kicked out of them day in and day out. Elections have become far too uncivilized.

    The local party has a long way to go if it is going to be a viable political entity in this county.

    Thank you for a fair assessment of the situation. You can always be counted on to dispense with the rhetoric and speak the truth as you see it.

  52. Matthew said on 7 Nov 2007 at 10:31 pm:
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    BVBL is the best conservative web site in Virginia… we need to have a blogger’s happer hour… I’m hoping NLS and BVBL will co-host one…

    Matthew

  53. Matthew said on 7 Nov 2007 at 10:32 pm:
    Flag comment

    And I made the above comment is a Democrat… BVBL is good.

    Matthew

  54. anon said on 8 Nov 2007 at 8:09 am:
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    From 11/8/07 Wall Street Journal Opinion Page “Tax and Offend”:

    “And speaking of hapless, Virginia Republicans lost control of the Senate for the first time in 12 years, and were all but wiped out in Northern Virginia’s Fairfax County. Virginia Republicans have lost their way by embracing the tax and spending agendas of successive Democratic Governors, and the result has been more and more Democrats in office. Perhaps they should try to stand for something other than bashing immigrants.”

    Prediction - Manassas and Manassas Park to go blue in 2008 if HSM takes over nomination process for local candidates.

  55. park'd said on 8 Nov 2007 at 8:19 am:
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    MP is already blue considering it is now 80% Hispanic with a TREMENDOUS number of illegal aliens. Low voter turnout in the park is attributed to the real citizens feeling like prisoners in their own community and feeling powerless to do anything about it since the mayor and city council are complicit in the invasion. I feel that way myself every time my PITA Mexican next door neighbors who live at least 8 in that house with 20-30 people coming and going at all times steal my 2nd parking spot and drop trash in my yard. I am ~ this close to having words with the man of that house. These people just don’t respect anything.

  56. 999 said on 8 Nov 2007 at 8:53 am:
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    anon said on 8 Nov 2007 at 8:09 am:

    Perhaps they should try to stand for something other than bashing immigrants.”

    NO ONE IS BASHING IMMIGRANTS. ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS ARE BEING BASHED AND RIGHTLY SO!

  57. 4kidsnadog said on 8 Nov 2007 at 9:24 am:
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    park’d

    Your feelings are shared by many. Reasonable people are being pushed to their limits. I would not be surprised if normally law law abiding citizens start to retaliate in frustration. It is a sad state of affairs.

  58. dolph said on 8 Nov 2007 at 9:28 am:
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    Park’d,

    Steal my parking place, I have words with you, and I don’t care if you are Mother Theresa. Does you HOA not have a tow service?

    My daughter lives in Stonington and they are the parking Nazis over there. It really is overkill.

    Do you even have a HOA over where you live?

    There is always the box of nails trick for stolen parking spots. Oooopppps.

  59. Matt said on 8 Nov 2007 at 9:29 am:
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    SSO-

    I don’t necessarily think that Miller is a strong candidate; he was completely funded last year by party PACs and leadership and he doesn’t have time/doesn’t like to walk neighborhoods and knock doors in any substantial number.

    I think that if he was in a district that was more evenly divided he would have a very difficult time. He kind of has a Fred Thompson vibe to him; seems like there are other things he would rather do than campaign during campaign season.

    I agree with Turn PWBlue that Rishell’s shot was the special election but she didn’t understand the importance of the immigration issue well enough and she didn’t truly understand her vulnerability on that issue. If she had, she would have won in ‘06.

    DPVA is fixated on the 52nd and they continue to pump good money after bad. Taylor, Barg, and Brown (the last 3 candidates) were horrible. Barg and Brown had no field game and relied completely on direct mail, and Taylor refused to personally walk the district. While the poll numbers suggest the 52nd is a pick-up opp for Dems, the Dems will not take this seat until Frederick leaves on his own accord, or they find a candidate with little baggage and a lot of energy and organizational skill. Jeff is too good at raising money and interacting with the citizens to lose and the Dems don’t understand this. They look solely at the numbers and fail to realize that personal connection at the local level is more important than preference for up-ticket races. DPVA and the PWCDC look at these things in a much too simplistic way.

    I knew this race was lost back in June when Chris Brown called me and told me that his campaign manager was the young girl who ran Barg’s field op in ‘05. He was so excited to have a “professional” from Richmond working for him.

    She was incompetent in ‘05 and then ran the Democrats to their worst defeat in this district since George DeLimba.

    Recycling the same bad people and bad ideas will not work - is that the definition of insanity? I started laughing out loud when I got mailers from Brown using the same rhetoric from ‘03.

    DPVA is run by monkeys.

  60. park'd said on 8 Nov 2007 at 11:17 am:
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    Dolph: I have started the process on them with my condo association. I have tried to be tolerant since they are good church going people, but they are totally disrespecting me and my stuff. It’s a cultural thing. The problem is that the people that own that place work odd hours and their *cough* roommates have people over that don’t know the rules and park in my spot. There are so many people coming and going into this townhouse that there is no way to prevent it. Kids running wild with candy wrappers and juice boxes which they drop in my yard. Kids playing tag and ball around my car, etc. These people are driving me nutts. At least they are pious folks; I can’t even imagine if they were partying day laborer types. I would have beaten 2 or 3 of them by now if they were. You don’t mess with a man’s woman or a man’s belongings. That lesson was taught to me as a child. Too bad our ‘visitors’ haven’t learned it…..yet.

  61. Anon in the know said on 8 Nov 2007 at 11:25 am:
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    Jackson Miller won by 60% because he and his staff worked extremely hard. Matt and Turn PW Blue make some reasonable points, but make a mistake by underestimating the amount of effort that Miller and his campaign staff expended this year. Rishell ran as a moderate centrist and Miller had to work constantly to personally contact voters to counter what she was putting out there as the “truth”. Rishell and her campaign worked overtime to obfuscate the truth, and were very effective at it with many people who don’t follow politics regularly (which is most of the population unfortunately). The 60% victory over Rishell came from tireless work to get the truth out by Miller and his supporters. The dems underestimating him only works to Miller’s advantage. Those who are close to his campaign and to him personally (democrats and republicans both, many dems like the guy because he’s straightforward) know the truth however. Rishell worked very hard this year, and so did Miller.

  62. Miller fan said on 8 Nov 2007 at 10:36 pm:
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    I love all these pseudo democrat analysts out here talking about how Jackson Miller “isnt that strong a candidate”, or “isnt unbeatable”.

    If you count party nomination contests, between City Council and the General Assembly the guy has won 5 contests in the last 4 years.

    I would have to say that makes him a pretty formidable candidate. Matt, you say he dosnt like to knock on doors? On election night I asked him how many he knocked this year. The answer - just under 10,000 doors.

    That may not be quite as many doors as Rishell, but when you come off as a likable person like Miller its pretty hard to beat.

  63. Linda B. said on 8 Nov 2007 at 11:32 pm:
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    Nevermind his campaign … Miller’s record of success in the House is remarkable given the short amount of time he has served. He deserved to keep the job, and he is a great hope for this state.

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