"We have lost our ambition, our imagination, and our willingness to do the things that built the Golden Gate Bridge" - Barack Obama (aka President Malaise)
PWC Post Election Analysis, Commentary
By Greg L | 8 November 2007 | Prince William County | 38 Comments
While last Tuesday’s election results delivered a blow to the Republican Party of Virginia, it also demonstrated how effective grassroots activism can be, a factor noticeably absent in many campaigns which have been operating under the assumption that the more slick mail pieces you can deliver to voters, the more likely it is that your candidate will win. While money is and will continue to be important to campaigns, it’s never going to be more effective than motivated volunteers and the electorate they engage. Voters are still more important than money.
Case in point: Jackson Miller’s 50th District is the center of mass for Help Save Manassas. Miller vastly improved on his performance over last year, delivering a thumping on Jeanette Rishell that surprised just about everyone. Gainesville, which has some 50th District precincts and a strong HSM contingent gave Supervisor John Stirrup a similar margin of victory over Corey Riley, well beyond the roughly three hundred vote margin he won by in his last election. In Bob Marshall’s 13th District, which is also within this area, Marshall significantly extended his lead over Bruce Roemmelt to a 21 percentage point lead over last elections nine point lead. Gainesville also turned out huge for Corey Stewart, giving him a very similar 61%-39% victory in the district over Sharon Pandak. These are huge and consistent margins.
The anomaly here is the Colgan/Fitzsimmonds race, where both candidates talked about the immigration issue and other factors — such as long-term incumbency — were more significant in the race. Even so, the perceived weakness of Colgan’s re-election bid prompted multiple visits by high-profile Democrats who were concerned that a Senator who has served since 1976 might lose his seat. Would anyone have guessed that Governor Kaine would need to schlep out to Manassas and stump for Colgan in this election six months ago? Probably not.
In areas where there wasn’t a strong grassroots effort on the illegal alien issue, the results were somewhat different. Picking an issue and running on it helps to clarify a candidate’s stand on that issue, but it doesn’t often motivate voters to get to the polls on it’s own. The retail politics of voter contact is more significant than any volume of mail pieces you can drop in a voter’s mailbox, although even when there wasn’t a strong grassroots effort, the issue of illegal aliens on it’s own did have an impact.
While Jeff Frederick is a fantastic campaigner with a dedicated army of volunteers, in Woodbridge Chris Royse didn’t have that resource, and there wasn’t a strong independent grassroots effort there. Still, the immigration issue was clearly alive in Woodbridge. Sharon Pandak’s polling numbers track very closely with the combined totals from Principi and Ramierez, and Corey Stewart, who won in Woodbridge tracks very closely with the combined totals from Royse and Keen. Had Keen not been discouraged from participating in a Republican convention to select the nominee for Woodbridge Supervisor and the right-of-center given a unified choice here, the outcome would have been very different, even in the Democrat bastion of Woodbridge.
In the 51st House District, the primary issue wasn’t illegal immigration. Both candidates had generally similar positions on that issue, and other factors weighed more heavily in voter’s minds. Voters for Corey Stewart in this district crossed-over and voted for Democrat Paul Nichols in pretty significant numbers, and Nichols ran well ahead of Sharon Pandak in the 51st District. If anything, this demonstrates that when Democrats embrace commonsense policies to reduce the number of illegal aliens in our communities, voters can be very receptive to their candidacies. Virginia Democrats, far from thinking that the illegal alien issue is insignificant, should take this example to heart.
Where that retail politics effort backed up candidate’s stands on the illegal alien issue, and that was a primary issue in the race, voters decisively selected candidates who were perceived as being less likely to coddle illegal aliens. In areas where that wasn’t happening, or was being lost in the noise (think Loudoun and Fairfax), that one issue alone did not decide whether a candidate would be successful or not, but it did have an impact. As efforts continue to get the grassroots active on the illegal alien issue beyond the stronghold of western Prince William County, Virginia Democrats can either ignore this issue at their peril, or receive a rather unpleasant surprise when they next face re-election.
The opinions expressed here are solely the views of the author, and not representative of the position of any organization, political party, doughnut shop, knitting guild, or waste recycling facility, but may be correctly attributed to the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy. If anything in the above article has offended you, please click here to receive an immediate apology.
You can follow the discussion through the Comments feed.
38 Comments
Views: 1241
Loading ...
I dropped my jaw when I saw a TV ad from former Governor Mark Warner saying Chuck Colgan is going to be tough on illegal immigration. I think that helped Mr. Colgan. If Colgan kept silent on the issue, I believe the results would have been different.
OT. Not so good article in Miami Herald today re an impending “Hispanic Intifada.” What’s noteworthy about the articel are the comments being made to it. See: http://www.miamiherald.com/418/story/295183.html
I agree with most of what Greg has said in his analysis of the races.
I do believe and thus disagree with the part about Keen.I believe tha Keen never approached the Repb. Party to be a candidate,thus was never discouraged from running.
Keen has been playing games for about 10 years and has been in and out of the Party at election time as he worked for Hilda . At her fund raisers & etc.
He would not run against her,as he told it aroung that Hilda was going to back him when she stopped. Many of us said NO WAY. Guess what she went for the Democrat.
Keen sat in our house and said he was running as an Independent, as he won the school board seat as an Independent. Well thats all that School Board runs as,Independents.
Rumor has it and I believe he ran to spoil the votes,so a Democrat would win.
The Repb. Party HAS HAD TO MANY PLAYING GAMES AND THEY ARE CAUSING HAVOC IN AND OUT OF PRINCE WILLIAM.
Who the hell is worried about a Hispance Intifada? This is why if need be, deport em’ with force!
These people have broken rules and expect us to overlook it. NOPE…we won’t!
Lets be friends. Intimidation and inciting remarks, by their resulting actions not speech, become categories of hate crimes that are actually prosecuted under other existing laws. If it can be proven that someone has been harmed as a result of illegal-bullying behaviors they can successfully sue for damages. The content on this site may expose contributors to personal liability. Lets be friends.
Advocator, Re: the Miami Herald article you posted; I can think of a no more egregious form of child abuse than subjecting a child to the ill wills of human traffickers (this is a global problem so I am not only referring to “coyotes” i.e. personnel that facilitate illegal alien movements along the U.S. Southern Border). Anyone that willingly moves their child along the same routes as drugs, weapons and other horrible things just to make a buck is a bad parent.
Secure the border, dismantle the sanctuaries, enforce the law at all levels of government. If your selfish parents brought you here and now you find yourself in a bind because you’re not a U.S. citizen, blame them, not us. I most certainly do.
Friends, ha never. We have not submitted nor will we ever submit to the illegal invasion of our country by the Third World. The US government will not shut us or anyone up because like it or not this is our country and we intend to fight for it by all means within the law. If the invaders do resort to violence we will of course be ready and maybe just maybe the people in DC will call this thing what it is, an invasion that threatens the future existence of our country.
RE: Miami article.
So it’s better to accept the illegals so as not to anger them, but it’s fine for them to ruin our education/health systems, neighborhoods, and pi$$ us off?
The article is a joke. I’ve read better stuff in Mad Magazine.
Completely agree with you, Chris. Like I said, the comments to the article, that parallel the ones on this site, were more interesting and intelligent than the article itself.
Goodwill said on 8 Nov 2007 at 1:15 pm:
“Lets be friends.”
OH MY GOD…I think Neville Chamberlain has risen from the dead - lol
How about THEY be OUR friends and respect OUR rules and laws, ok?
Mr. Blackman:
Are you aware that not all aliens are illegal, urinate publically, steal cars, etc,etc? I know immigrants that I will assume came here illegally that keep clean houses, work hard, mow their lawns, go to church, are pleasant, become citizens, fight and die in Iraq, pay taxes, and don’t hate.
I hear and understand the arguments about respecting law, but if you were Emperor of America and could do anything you wanted, would there be others that you would evict from our shores first?
Wait, don’t answer, let me guess> Liberals, commies, educated elites and hollywood pinkos.
23 illegal aliens arrested at Ohare Airport. Security breech. Fake badges and all.
Again, it is all about national security. The feds must fix this serious problem.
Veteran,
Illegal is Illegal, we cannot be allow our border to be overun be people who don’t respect our laws, values and customs. There are many fine people who are here illegally. They should go home, get the documentation you need to be here and come back. When they get back here they need to become part of our society and not create a sub-culture within it.
Let us remember it the “American Dream”.
Goodwill: Puhleeeeze. Good luck proving that stretch. Move along, nothing for you to see here.
Veteran: We are only talking about the illegals. We already have our own brand of miscreant citizens in this country that do those things so we certainly don’t need any more.
Patty,
Know that the election is over please admit that FitzSimmonds position changed from Amnesty to “Tough Guy” on Immigration. You and others I know had been told from Bob himself if they didn’t like immigrants they should move. I heard the Colgan Campaign had a number of people willing to sign affidavits stating FitzSimmonds had told them he favored amnesty. However Colgan was not willing to pursue.
Nobody is losing any sleep over the fact that Fitzsimmons lost. Of all the people that we could lose, he was by far the best. At least Colgan is well respected and liked even if he has been utterly worthless cleaning up our neighborhoods and making sure laws are enforced. O’Brien is the real loss of the election as we can all agree. Royse’ loss will also make things a bit trickier as well. It would have been nice to have him in the BOCS as insurance that they won’t think about waffling.
Billyboy: Is there anywhere that it is written down about Fitz changing his stance on immigration, i.e. reported that he was for Ammesty and as it got closer to the election, changed his stance?
Not trying to argue here, but I tried to find stuff supporting or not supporting what you wrote. I DID find this thread from a previous BVBL:
http://www.bvbl.net/index.php/2007/07/25/exposing-the-duck-weave/
Most of what I found in my search were blogs, and reference to the boxing Champ Bob Fitzsimmons of the late 19th century. Nothing implied or said what you mentioned.
Colgan wasn’t willing to pursue it since it would have highlighted his own flip flop on the issue.
Take Goodwill south of the border where he can instruct them on what it means to be a good neighbor.
Folks, ILLEGALS FLEEING Oklahoma as a result of House Bill 1804 taking effect as of 11/01. Go to Google, “Illegals fleeing Oklahoma”. We NEED to get similar legislation passed in VA….NOW! Texas is being INVADED by the Oklahoma illegals.
Mr. Stewart has said it’s time to get going on illegal immigration. Couldn’t agre more. Think he’ll have a check for jail and police next Tuesday to pay for what has been started?
I’ll be watching…….hope you will too!
John Light,
Could not find anything on line either. However Patty had stated on BVBL that he told her if she didn’t like it, move. Patty then said she spoke with FitzSimmonds and he said she miss understood him. Bob also told a guy I know in Breamar he supported Amnesty back in the spring. In the Spring this was not an issue the Legislative races so there is no coverage.
It’s funny when ever it gets brought up here, it simply fades away like nobody wants to discuss it.
Anonymous said on 8 Nov 2007 at 3:06 pm:
Colgan wasn’t willing to pursue it since it would have highlighted his own flip flop on the issue.
Colgan didn’t pursue it because he beleive you run a campaign by talking about what your going to do. It really is a remarkable concept the Republican Party leadership should try it, then you wouldn’t be whinning about Jay O’Brien.
Note to Mr. Royse: the election is over and you lost. You can stop campaigning now.
Billyboy, by that reasoning no one should ever be held accountable for their actual legislative record, we should just blindly accept what they say they will do in spite of their past actions like good little lemmings.
Anonymous said on 8 Nov 2007 at 4:14 pm:
No Sir, the lemmings are the Republicans that blindly vote straight ticket. An Ax Murderer or Terrorist could be on the ticket and they’d pull the lever.
You want to quote someones record great. Put the actual intent of the legislation on the table. If Colgan voted to give the voters the ability to vote of whether or not they wanted off track betting, does that mean he wants to build casinos.
I would like to build a casino! (eyes lighting up) The eagle has landed!
Note to Ducky: why don’t you go off and nibble at your tail feathers. Mr. Royce: thank your for your comments and insights. I met you at the PWC Fair in August and you had my instant support.
Let the voters decide if they want Casino’s, that makes too much sense. let us remember our is a Representative form of Government.
I would think if Colgan actually wanted to build Casino’s he would have just tried to pass a bill without voters.
Billy Boy,
I did misunderstand Bob. I did get to talk with him about it. I don’t know about any amnesty. I know a bunch of Republicans got stuck with Bush but I didn’t hear Bob say anything about Pres. Bush’s amnesty proposal.
Putting aside all the campaign rhetoric - It happens on both sides. I think we can agree on that. Bob is really a nice man. His wife is also very nice. He would be one of the best neighbors you could have. He is involved in Christian ministry because he loves people and he loves the Lord. I just want to say that because I think if you got to know him personally, you would like to have him as a friend.
I mentioned former Governor Warner because I was really surprised to see him do an ad like that. Also, I do believe if Colgan kept silent on illegal immigration, it would have hurt him. That is what I meant to say. I didn’t mean it in a derogatory way.
Billy Boy,
By the way, I left a message for you on the previous thread. I also said that I would like to get to know Senator Colgan as a person instead of just as a candidate.
I got to fix supper. I hope to be back later
Patty said on 8 Nov 2007 at 6:31 pm:
Billy Boy,
Putting aside all the campaign rhetoric - It happens on both sides. I think we can agree on that. Bob is really a nice man. His wife is also very nice. He would be one of the best neighbors you could have. He is involved in Christian ministry because he loves people and he loves the Lord. I just want to say that because I think if you got to know him personally, you would like to have him as a friend.
As a Christian I am offended at the hateful lies that he spread about Senator Colgan. Fitzsimmonds may call himself a Christian, but he is nothing but a hypocrit. What kind of Christian goes to a man’s home church (Colgan and All Saints) and puts flyers on parishoner’s windshield aclaiming that Colgan is pro-choice…gee, that sounds like a real Christian to me. I love these pro-life guys like Fitzsimmonds who are pro life when it comes to abortion, but are not pro life when it comes to helping the poor and other unfortunate groups. Fitzsimmonds is the type of guy who thinks that anyone who is not a Republican is evil. It’s always those that go around preaching Christianity that are the most hypocrticial i.e., Jimmy Swaggart and Jim Bakker.
As far as you wanting to get to know Senator Colgan I find that hard to believe after all of the hateful and nasty things you and your HSM crew have said about him on this blog.
I for one, am upset at the “banner” of Christianity tossed around like a flier mailed, a election sign tossed in the middle of a median.
God is the ONE ( the Omega and Alpha: beginning and end) that is the ultimate judge. Who are WE to judge.
Patty,
Put the Kool Aid down and take a breath. Here is a quote from FitzSimmonds from Jan 10th in the Gainesville Times - “I disagree with Chuck Colgan, but that doesn’t mean he’s a scoundrel,” he said. “We’ve seen a lot of vilification going on as of late. I reject that (kind of) politics. I hope we have a discussion on policy.”
He kept his word on that one. His “discussion” was attack, attack, attack.
And look around your neighborhood and see the falling home prices. FitzSimmonds thinks that is a good thing. From the same article - According to FitzSimmonds, the slowdown in the housing market will be good for the state government because it will force leaders to reassess what programs they really need and how to fund them.
Tell your friends in Westgate and around PWC who are upside down in their house value that its a good thing so we can cut state programs. What is going to be cut is schools and roads. Oh yeah. He’s a home schooler, whats he care about our public schools.
And finally - from the article - A key difference between FitzSimmonds and Colgan is willingness to cross
party lines. Colgan and the late Del. Harry J. Parrish (R-50th) held a fund-raiser together before the 2003 election, campaigned together and handled each other’s legislation.
FitzSimmonds pledged to solely support Republican candidates, saying he had “a duty” to do so because it is Republicans who have aided and volunteered for him.
I don’t know about you but I’m sick of the partisanship and not working together. Both in Richmond and Washington. It’s about time these people pushing their loyalty to their state and country as much as they do thier own wing of the party. I saw wing because it was FitzSimmonds who orchestrated a rule change at the last minute that kept the moderates from voting in the local republican party elections, thus allowing only the extreme right wing to take control and giving us the election results we got this week. FitzSimmonds election would have just kept that going.
“All American
don’t know about you but I’m sick of the partisanship and not working together. Both in Richmond and Washington. It’s about time these people pushing their loyalty to their state and country as much as they do thier own wing of the party. I saw wing because it was FitzSimmonds who orchestrated a rule change at the last minute that kept the moderates from voting in the local republican party elections, thus allowing only the extreme right wing to take control and giving us the election results we got this week. FitzSimmonds election would have just kept that going.”
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/06/05/Dobbs.June6/index.html
Lafayette said on 8 Nov 2007 at 9:08 pm:
The History Channel (41 in PWC) is airing a show right now on MS-13 and in Northern Virginia.
I know two thngs for sure.
1. There is a God
2. I’m not him
Judging others ain’t my jhaub
Billyboy,
Amen!