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Money Can’t Buy You Votes
By Greg L | 9 November 2007 | Prince William County | 44 Comments
Someone asked about how much money was spent on each race, compared to the number of votes they got. So without further ado, here’s the list of legislative candidates in Prince William County and how much they had to spend in order to obtain the votes they got:
| Candidate | District | Cost Per Vote | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Marshall | House 13 | $6.76 | WON |
| Bruce Roemmelt | House 13 | $7.34 | LOST |
| Chuck Colgan | Senate 29 | $16.75 | WON |
| Bob Fitzsimmonds | Senate 29 | $18.25 | LOST |
| Jackson Miller | House 50 | $21.78 | WON |
| George Barker | Senate 39 | $33.28 | WON |
| Faisal Gill | House 51 | $33.72 | LOST |
| Jay O’Brien | Senate 39 | $36.02 | LOST |
| Jeanette Rishell | House 50 | $42.01 | LOST |
| Scott Lingamfelter | House 31 | $46.38 | WON |
| Paul Nichols | House 51 | $50.12 | WON |
| Jeff Frederick | House 52 | $56.69 | WON |
| William Day | House 31 | $67.15 | LOST |
| Chris Brown | House 52 | $80.42 | LOST |
Source: SBE website, VPAP.
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They ought to use some of the money to remove their popicle signs. The election has been over for 3 days now and the intersection of Williamson Blvd. and Sudley Manor drive is still full of RILEY, COLGAN, RISHELL AND BEAUCHAMP signs.
Very interesting thread. I would be interested in what basic information went into the calculations.
Tom Davis spent $400 million in the last week on his wife. Maybe she needs to move to the House 13th??? lol
John Light
$400 million, sure you don’t mean $400 K??-
I read an article by a notable economist that studied the correlation between campaign spending and winning. He found there was no correlation. This is heartening.
That’s why I love to see Sorros flush all that money down the toilet.
Lafayette said on 9 Nov 2007 at 5:07 pm:
John Light
$400 million, sure you don’t mean $400 K??-
To Davis it felt like $400 million
With luck, this means that Frederick, Lingamfelter, and Miller will get free rides in the future. These figures should demonstrate to Democrats that they are throwing good money after bad in those districts. The amount per vote spent by the Democrats in these districts is simply embarrassing.
It should also give them pause over the 51st. Nichols had to spend a helluva lot of money — more than Faisal, per voter — in an historically Democrat district. One has to wonder whether that race couldn’t have been pulled out if Faisal had spent a little more money.
And I’ve heard the same thing apocryphally, “Mando.” But I think I recall hearing that the money spent is much more important in open seats than in seats held by incumbents.
Aside from that, I’d like to know where my $56.69 from Jeff is!
James Young said on 9 Nov 2007 at 5:30 pm:
Aside from that, I’d like to know where my $56.69 from Jeff is!
Your check is in the mail.
Jim-
Sometimes we disagree, sometimes not. But I question your view that the 51st leans Democratic. If any district leans left, its Frederick’s 52nd. The 51st leans right, and only went for Nichols because he ran as a Warner/Kaine Democrat, unlike Rishell, Brown, Roemmelt. Plus our house was divided. Remember, McQuigg drew the 51st to her liking at the last residistricting (lots of Lake Ridge, only a little Dale City)
A better candidate wins in ‘09, no matter how much money Nichols has.
Ahhh. One of the world’s three most oft-told lies.
That is excelllent analysis, BVBL.
Lafayette said on 9 Nov 2007 at 5:07 pm:
John Light
$400 million, sure you don’t mean $400 K??-
Read the SBE or VPAP reports. Actually, it was closer to $450 MILLION.
Well, “Suedehead,” long-time Delegate David Brickley (D-51st), who preceded Michele McQuigg in the office, might disagree, but a case can be made. I know Sal Perch tried to make it based upon returns in other races, and the same people who torpedoed his candidacy — giving us instead Debra Wilson (remember what happened to her) — seem to be those who opposed Gill. I would also suggest that Warner/Kaine/Nichols conned the voters of the 51st, using Conservative rhetoric while governing as Liberals.
And the question of a “house divided” is an interesting one. Was it a house divided justifiably, or was it simply “divided” by immature, sour grapes boobs who demand fidelity to “their” candidates, but play childish games when they don’t get their way? If their complaints had any merit, if Lucas was as “qualified” as they sold her, she would have had little trouble getting more delegates to the Convention than Gill, and little trouble perfecting her right to appeal. It speaks volumes that it was rejected not only by Kopko (even if you assume arguendo his bias, which is all that that his critics do, since they never bother to attack the merits of his unassailable ruling), but UNANIMOUSLY by the 11th CD Committee, and she did not bother to take it to the State Central Committee. She and those advising her proved themselves incompetent.
Obviously, I subscribe to the latter theory, one which is clearly supported by the facts. It’s also supported historically: the last contested GOP race in that district was the Perch/Wilson race. Then, the same people behind Lucas offered us Debra Wilson, who won a primary (she was, of course, “more electable,” according to her supporters) but was subsequently convicted of a felony related to misrepresenting her real residence, and her clock was cleaned by Brickley. This time, they offered Lucas as a last-minute candidate, again with the same argument, an argument which was rejected by those participating in the nominating process, which could be limited to Republicans in the way that a primary could not. Gill would have been well-served had they not participated in the whisper campaign against him, and fulfilled the oath they took as a condition of participating in the Convention. Whether you subscribe to the smears leveled at Gill or not, I believe that honor demanded that. Instead, they chose to participate in a process whose outcome they had no intention of honoring if it didn’t suit their desires.
And having internal party disagreements is a sign of a healthy intellectual movement within the Party. The Dems have no such problem, because they are walking lockstep on the road to Socialism.
As a voter in the 52d, I would dispute your characterization of Brown. I think your characterization is unfair, as he didn’t run as a moonbat in the mode of Rishell and Roemmelt; I think his problem was the fact that he allowed the Democrat Party to smear Frederick and failed to run with any kind of meaningful agenda of his own. That, plus his record in Dumfries was not a positive for him. He made a lot of enemies.
I wouldn’t otherwise dispute your comments about the 52d. However, Jack Rollison long used that excuse to justify his “moderate” views and votes, and we saw how that worked out for him when a principled Conservative knocked him off.
Is it $400 million or thousand. I find it totally obscene if $400 million were spent on a state senate race.
Davis spent a total of $1,432,424 on her Senate campaign, $400,000 was a gift from her husband Tom Davis’ congressional campaign. She received 20,490 votes, spending on average $69.91 for every vote received.
GregL,
Thanks for the clarification.
Actually I find 400k obscene also. An election really shouldn’t take this much money. No wonder it is hard to get qualified, decent people to run for office. Most people can’t afford to run independently, without massive fund raising. And once you participate in fundraising, there is always the perception that someone owns you. In many cases, sadly, that is true.
jimmy young said….
“One has to wonder whether that race couldn’t have been pulled out if Faisal had spent a little more money.” Little more money????? Huh??
:)
jimmy, two points: Point one — the money Faisal Gill spent didn’t include what he spent to gain support of Tom Kopko, Bill Bolling and goodness only knows whom else. Point two — Faisal Gill didn’t lose because he didn’t spend enough money; he lost because too many within the 51st district cared enough to check into his history, knew of the organization for which he admittedly served as spokesperson, and knew of of his associatgion with the leadership of that organization. Any amount of money wouldn’t have turned THAT around.
Save you jimmy, we all knew that this was going to happen, and you, as well as all PWC Republicans were warned, time and again. If we would have had a solid candidate in the 51st District for HOD, instead of millstone Gill, Jay O’brien would have carried PWC by the margin he needed to overcome Barker’s strength in Fairfax.
jimmy, did you notice Julie Lucas’ victory in Neabsco? She took 71% of the vote in a three candidate race? You don’t think that would have helped Jay?
dolph, couldn’t agree with you more!!!
The 51st does not lead democratic; when Brickley was there it was before redistricting. The 51st didn’t even for for Kerry unlike the 52nd where every race above Delegate goes for the Democrat.
oh, one more thing, jimmy…you keep talking about “…violating an oath they took…” To the best of my knowledge no one, repeat NO ONE who took any kind of oath to support any particular candidate…and if they did, what fools, to take an oath in the sping to support a given candidate in November.
The oath going into the convention was “…intent to support the nominee…” I know of no one who violated that oath, do you? Instead of whispering (as you call it) about “violating an oath,” why don’t you tell us who violated the oath of intent.
The latest issue of the Connection lists top 25 donors in 86th district race. Tom Rust had 597 donations, total: $589,572.
Jay Donahue 416 donations, total $434,694.
Tom’s list is interesting in that 6 (six) out of the 25 donors are named HAZEL; biggest is John “Til” T Jr (Manassas), closely followed by William A Hazel Sr (Broadrun). Among the rest are Home Builders Assn of VA, Dewberry and Davis, Sidney O Dewberry, Bahman Batmanghelidj. I don’t know it means anything, but it certainly is interesting that almost 25% of the top donors are Hazels.
Jay’s top donor, aside from Va Dem-State and Va Dem-House, was his wife with $5,680.
It’s incredible that it would cost about one million dollars to run for delegate in Richmond. Enough to keep many good people from running, which is a durn shame!
Krusty,
It’s incredible that it would cost about one million dollars to run for delegate in Richmond. Enough to keep many good people from running, which is a durn shame!
Well, I’ll agree with you once more. 100% agreement on this one, and it goes for all races I believe.
***CLARIFICATION**
By race I obviously meant race for an elected
office/campaign.
“Fredo,” that you find it so easy to demonize an organization which seeks to mainstream Muslims into American society — and was concededly but unfortunately infiltrated by one among that small minority who are Jihadists — says more about your biases and bigotry than it does about the organization you condemn. It is, of course, ridiculous to assume that the individual of whom you speak shared his treacherous views with Gill, who served in that role for only a short time, years before that treachery was revealed, but your entire web of fantasy relies upon that proposition.
Sadly, the treacherous frequently rely upon lies to infiltrate organizations which rely upon the honor and good will of their membership. Sadly, good people are sometimes taken in by pretensions of those of a different sort. Sort of like the GOP relies upon the honesty of those who pledge their “intent to support all of the Party’s nominees for public office in the ensuing election.”
Which brings me to your comment that “no one, repeat NO ONE who took any kind of oath to support any particular candidate.” You are, of course. correct. Nice phony straw man. Of course, that’s not what I said, and it’s not what the Republican Party Plan says. What it says is that all participants in official Republican Party nominating contests must pledge their “intent to support all of the Party’s nominees for public office in the ensuing election.” THAT is the oath that was violated by those who attended the 51st District Convention and refused to support the nominee chosen by it, and I have suggested nothing else.
Even Greg was conceding before Election Day that Faisal stood a good chance in the race, notwithstanding the smears of you and others, and his best efforts to provide a forum for you. It’s also ironic that those who speak so sanctimoniously, so frequently, and so unconvincingly about a “big tent” were unwilling to open the flaps for those that Gill brought into the Party. The “big tent” that they/you want is only one “big” enough to include those you deem worthy.
Of course, your claim that “all PWC Republicans were warned, time and again” is nothing that a self-fulfilling prophecy brought about by the dishonorable who violated their oath. Hindsight is 20/20, and it’s truly sad that the GOP is populated by a contingent less interested in electing Republicans than it is in indulging its petty and self-serving, fanciful grievances when it doesn’t get its way. We may well face the same thing from the threat of some Christian Conservatives to sit out the 2008 presidential race if Guilliani is the nominee. I wonder what you’ll say if they do?
As for Gill’s effect on Jay’s race, “Fredo,” or “Gredo,” or whatever, it is GREG who manages to argue quite convincingly, based upon the evidence, that Gill had little to do with O’Brien’s results. Your argument is therefore with him, primarily, not me, though if you’d like to see the actual figures, I would commend to your attention this post: http://skepticalobservor.blogspot.com/2007/11/scapegoating-gill-is-nonsense.html. The numbers demonstrate that Jay actually did quite better than Gill in the precincts they shared than he did compared to that single precinct he shared with Bob Marshall. It is impossible to construct from those results the notion that Gill was a “drag” on O’Brien. Turnout was 35.09% in PWC precincts in Jay’s district. Turnout was 33.56% in Fairfax County precincts in Jay’s district. If anything, Faisal’s candidacy AIDED O’Brien’s efforts by facilitating a higher GOP turnout in PWC..
Once again, “Fredo,” when the truth doesn’t suit your purpose, you simply make it up. And belittle. That, along with your cowardly pseudonymity, bespeaking your unwillingness to bear the consequences of your perfidy, speaks volumes about you and your character, or more accurately, your lack thereof.
The PWCRC went from 234 in 2006 to 110 this past Fall. Speaks volumns about the decisive tactics of the Kopko Kops and his Merry enablers. I will only get worse in the 2008 elaction as far as PWC is concerned unless they kick that cabal out of the committee.
MASSIVE WIN FOR THE HOKIES… SORRY TO CHANGE THE SUBJECT TO SPORTS, BVBL
THAT COMMONWEALTH CUP IS GOING TO MEAN SOMETHING!!
More importantly, Hampden-Sydney beat Randolph-Macon 31-13 for fifth consecutive ODAC title, in the oldest rivalry in the South.
OK jimmy, see it as you wish..:)
“”"“Fredo,” that you find it so easy to demonize an organization which seeks to mainstream Muslims into American society — and was concededly but unfortunately infiltrated by one among that small minority who are Jihadists”"”
Reality check. Abdurahman Alamoudi FOUNDED the American Muslim Council.
FOUNDED.
He didn’t infiltrate the organization which he founded.
“”"all participants in official Republican Party nominating contests must pledge their ‘intent to support all of the Party’s nominees for public office in the ensuing election.’”"
Any delegate who:
(1) Intended for Julie Lucas to win the nomination; and
(2) Intended to support the intended winner Julie Lucas
by definition possessed an “intent to support” the intended winner of the HOD-51 nomination. Unlike Tom Kopko, they intended that winner to be Julie Lucas.
The difference between what losers and winners spent is not statistically reliable (that is, it differs only by chance) using the data provided in the table for this piece. The implications is that it is unwise to conclude that there is a difference between what winners and losers spent per vote received. For those interested in specifics, the results of a paired-samples t-test were t = 1.38, df 6, p = .22.
Frederick may need to get a little better with his finances. As I understand it, his company, GenX Strategies is having troubles paying its bills. How much of his campaign was self-financed? Did he raid the company coffers to get elected?
Losers often have disadvantages which they must overcome. So they tend to spend more per vote received than they would without those disadvantages.
On the other hand, winners usually raise and spend more money. Therefore winners can afford to keep spending to acquire marginally more expensive votes. The poorer candidate cannot afford to go after those marginally expensive votes.
Therefore winners also tend to spend more per vote received.
The two cause-and-effect relationships cancel out.
…and jimmy who was it that admitted being a spokesperson for this AMC organization founded by Abdurahman Alamoudi?? (Faisal Gill) …and where is the “founder” of this organization today? (in prison for supporting terrorists)
Can you really imagine a person being hired and serving as an admitted spokesperson for an organization without knowing “just a little bit” about what the founder of the organization had in mind? If he Faisal Gill “had no idea,” doesn’t make sense that he could have been a very effective spokesperson, huh?
…and jimmy, I’m confident that Gov Kaine felt that he was “…seeking to mainstream a Muslim into American society” too, and then, son-of-a-gun, he found that the guy had occasional tendancies toward Jihad….whoa!!!
……just a little too much risk for me (and fortunately, a few others) to take in selecting a Delegate to the Virginia HOD. As I’ve said all along, no need to take that chance; fortunately we didn’t.
For Jonathan Mark: That little deduction concerning “intent to support the nominee” wasn’t difficult at all, was it?
“Hmmm…” said that Frederick’s business is having trouble paying its bills, and insinuated that he might have raided the company coffers to get elected.
Two things:
1) Substantiate this rumor or keep it to yourself. Your innuendo is sleazy.
2) The source of all of Frederick’s campaign finances are a matter of public record, as are those for every other candidate. So again, throwing garbage like that out is just sleaze-peddling. Put up or shut up.
By the way, has anyone heard if “Hmmm…” has stopped beating his wife?
And “Fredo,” when was Alamoudi convicted of that crime? When did the investigation become public? When was Gill the spokesman?
Since the answers are that Gill was the spokesman well before (i.e., years) Alamoudi was convicted, or when the investigation of him became public, I presume you won’t favor us with your superior knowledge of what you suggest are “facts.” Understandable; innuendo serves you much better than facts.
Your hindsight is soooo impressive, “Fredo.” Why don’t you just ‘fess up that, like most of the Gill-haters, you despise Conservatives? Or is the reason you don’t the same reason you maintain your anonymity: you fear the consequences of being associated with your smears?
That’s one reason why voters didn’t blame Bush — or Clinton, for that matter — for the attacks on 9/11, and shouldn’t have. Either the Gill-Haters — particularly those in the 51st District — are dumber than the American electorate as a whole (possible), or their using these smears as an excuse for demonizing a Conservative that they don’t dare attack on ideological grounds (likely).
When did you get your degree from the Herr Goebbels Big Lie School of Political Propaganda?
And yeah, “Fredo,” I guess I’m not surprised that you’re impressed by Psychotic Racist Jonathan Mark’s sophistry.
Only an idiot would be impressed by that nonsense.
Faisal Gill may never run for office again. However, the whole matter so beclouds Corey “I Put Faisal Gill On The Ballot” Stewart that it remains important.
Corey Stewart told an audience at a Woodbridge mosque last summer that “I put Faisal Gill on the ballot.” Some of us view the nomination of someone with Faisal Gill’s terror-lobbying background as a national security issue. Stewart won’t get a free pass from us. He is unreliable.
Stewart should explain why he “put Faisal Gill on the ballot” and whether he today views having done so as wise.
If Stewart refuses to repudiate and apologize for his mistake then we should draw the appropriate conclusions about whether Stewart is unfit for office.
“”"And “Fredo,” when was Alamoudi convicted of that crime?”"”
2004
“”"When did the investigation become public?”"”
2003
“”"When was Gill the spokesman?”"”
Gill was the AMCs “Director of Governmental Affairs” in 2001. During that time press reports would sometimes identify Gill as the AMCs “spokesman,” although that was not his title.
When did Alamoudi stand in front of the White House and proclaim his and his audience’s support for the officially-designated terrorist groups Hamas and Hezbollah? 2000.
When did Alamoudi first start laundering Libyan and Saudi money? 1995-96.
When did Alamoudi found the American Muslim Council? 1990
When did HOD-51 voters repudiate Gill’s political background? 2007
When will Fairfax County voters repudiate Corey Stewart’s record of support for the former Terror Lobbyist #1 Faisal Gill? 2008, if Stewart runs for Tom Davis’s seat.
“”"Since the answers are that Gill was the spokesman well before (i.e., years) Alamoudi was convicted, or when the investigation of him became public,”"”
In early 2001 the American Arab Institute (AAI) banned Alamoudi from a dinner that the AAI was holding to celebrate the Bush inauguration. Guards met Alamoudi as he attempted to enter and informed Alamoudi that the AMC leader was not invited.
AAI founder and leader James Zogby denounced Alamoudi in 2000, stating that Alamoudi’s radical statements endangered not just Alamoudi himself but anyone who had ever supported Alamoudi.
But Gill chose not to listen to wiser heads like Zogby. Just a few months later Gill went to work as chief lobbyist for Alamoudi’s AMC.
“”"Your hindsight is soooo impressive, “Fredo.””"”
This is not a matter of hindsight, but rather foresight. Zogby knew that Alamoudi was dangerous in 2000/2001, and Gill knew also. Gill thought no one would care years later. Gill was wrong.
“”"Why don’t you just ‘fess up that, like most of the Gill-haters, you despise Conservatives?”"”
BVBL despises conservatives? This is news to most of us. BVBL was the reason Gill lost. I would not have known who Gill was if not for BVBL. The “Google Faisal Gill” meme worked. I was shocked at what I found. I mean with Gill and Gallinger, not just with the AMC.
“”"Or is the reason you don’t the same reason you maintain your anonymity: you fear the consequences of being associated with your smears?”"”
Rumor has it that James Young will denounce to Kopko and Stewart any PWCRC members who actively opposed Gill. These heroic PWCRC members, who put their country before their party, wear their cloaks of anonymity as badges of honor.
“Fredo?” Like I’ve said before, “you wonder why I call you Jimmy, Jimmy?”
Thanks Jonathan, response from me is not even necessary…
Hmmmmmmmm, something doesn’t smell good…..
“The stunning case of Nada Nadim Prouty, a 37-year-old Lebanese native who is related to a suspected Hizbullah money launderer…”
“I’m beginning to think it’s possible that Hizbullah put a mole in our government,” said Richard Clarke, the former White House counterterrorism chief under presidents Clinton and, until 2002, Bush. “It’s mind-blowing…”
“…how did an illegal alien from Lebanon who was working as a waitress at a shish kabob restaurant in Detroit manage to slip through extensive security background checks, including polygraphs, to land highly sensitive positions with the nation’s top law enforcement and intelligence agencies”?
I wonder if she was “exonerated” too. Have a good day, Faisal….
Compared to Mr. Franklin who was convicted of giving secret to AIPAC, Nada got off. Franklin gets twelve years and she gets six months. Very odd.