Bob Marshall For Senate?
By Greg L | 22 November 2007 | Virginia Politics, US Senate | 24 Comments
According to the Washington Post, Bob Marshall is considering joining the field of candidates for the Republican nomination or U.S. Senate, along with Jim Gilmore and Chris Saxman. This would be a very interesting three-way race.
Jim Gilmore comes into this race after a pretty disheartening run for the Republican nomination for President, where he couldn’t raise money or attract volunteers. That failed effort probably hurt his future political aspirations more than anything else, which is unfortunate as he had a solid record as Governor. Delegate Chris Saxman, a fresh face from Stanton offers a decent record as a conservative, and won plaudits for leading the cost-cutting caucus which promoted a lot of good ideas, few of which have been implemented, however. But Delegate Bob Marshall, who is continually being dismissed by Democrats, is coming off the huge 2006 victory of the Marshall/Newman Marriage Amendment which he authored, and just won re-election by a huge margin.
In the last session of the General Assembly, Marshall has racked up a solid record of fighting for conservative principles regardless of the political consequences. In doing so he’s garnered significant support from independent, as well as Republican voters. His district has the largest number of registered voters of any of the House seats by far, and covers portions of two of the top five largest localities in the state. As an alternative to Gilmore, Bob Marshall raised almost twice what Saxman obtained in campaign contributions last election cycle, although neither had to raise the anywhere near the levels that some of the more contentious races did this year.
Democrats dismiss Marshall as someone obsessed with moral issues who can’t get his bills approved in the General Assembly. That mantra didn’t help Bruce Roemmelt too much this election season, and it may not help Mark Warner a whole lot more if Bob Marshall wins the nomination. Marshall doesn’t have a whole lot of support from state-wide Republicans as a result of his challenge of Bill Howell for the House speakership, and for not being seen as a team player when HB3202 was considered. If he could get over that hurdle in a convention, those qualities of standing for principle before all else might be a compelling way for Marshall to win votes in a General Election.
There are a couple of other possible candidates who haven’t yet announced whether they’re going to seek the nomination, but time is running out for additional candidates to join the field. Within the next month, the list of candidates is going to effectively finalize, and there may be room for one or two more to join the fray.
UPDATE: Right Wing Liberal has a few thoughts on this as well.
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Being THE pro-life candidate can cause Gilmore some heartburn and will actually make Gilmore put together an organization if he wants to win this thing convincingly. With a challenge from the left (Saxman) and right (obviously Marshall), this could make Gilmore a much better candidate.
The trouble is (for Gilmore)…if he goes for it…Bob Marshall will be the new candidate in the field that is far too often underestimated. Gilmore will lose that label.
All in all…Marshall running is a positive developement to this race.
I also think multiple candidates helps Gilmore in the long run. Obviously would be better if he were unopposed, but if 5 different candidates are in the convention, Gilmore’s statewide organization and name recognition put him at an advantage in terms of winning a plurality of votes, while the Anybody But Gilmore vote is diffused among several other candidates.
A few things…
First, It does not matter how much the ABG vote is diffused…if Gilmore cannot muster a majority. See the recent Va-1 contest. Paul Jost led on all ballots…except the last as the anti-Jost vote coalesced.
Second, I would love to hear how it is that Saxman is to the left of Gilmore. If Saxman is to the left, then it is a matter of such tiny degree that no one is going to notice. Of all the attacks out there, that is the one least able to get traction.
Frankly, the fact that a former Governor and AG is facing the possibility of opposition from delegate types hurts him. If he wins the nomination, he has to win big to make it seem he is strong. Anything else will be interpreted as a sign of weakness. I think that was the hidden key to the convention decision. If he beats Tom Davis, it shows Gilmore still has ballot box clout. If he dusts one or two delegates by anything but shellacking big margin, he looks baaaaaaaaad.
Gilmore a Solid Record as Gov., laughable. He got elected for one reason. The car tax, which he failed to properly implement nearly bankrupting the Commonwealth. Furthermore he only got his plan 70% done. People remember.
If you want to challenge Warner, Gilmore is not the guy.
From Pilot Newspaper
Gilmore was elected in 1997 on a promise to end local property taxes on most cars. Gilmore underestimated the cost of the repeal, however, and fought with the legislature to keep his promise at the end of his term when the state slid into recession. Even so, Gilmore had erased 70 percent of the tax when he left office in early 2002, at a cost of almost $1 billion a year.
Warner succeeded Gilmore and quickly discovered that the state faced a $3.8 billion shortfall in revenues needed to balance the budget. He referred to the deficit as “the mess I inherited ” and accused Gilmore of concealing the state’s financial problems.
Actually Billyboy, Warner came into office with a 300 Million Dollar Surplus, Used his media influence to convince the morons that Gilmore created a deficit, and used that as an excuse to pass Va’s largest ever tax increase.
And in regard to a possible Marshall candidacy I think he would do very well, considering in the past few cycle’s conservatives garner a significantly percentage of the vote than moderates
Kilgore (moderate-wouldn’t take a strong stand on abortion)
T M Kaine Democratic 1,025,942 51.72%
J W Kilgore Republican 912,327 45.99%
Vs Allen (significantly more pro-life)
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,175,606 49.59%
G F Allen Republican 1,166,277 49.20%
And this years senate races
Conservative’s
Frederick Quayle 58.62%
Frank M. Ruff 58.96%
Ralph K. Smith 50.75%
Emmett W. Hanger, Jr. 65.36%
Mark D. Obenshain 70.40%
Jill Holtzman Vogel 48.44% Vs Karen Schultz 47.16%
Richard H. Stuart 50.61%
Kenneth T. Cuccinelli II 50.02%
Liberal Republicans
Nick Rerras 45.52%
Jeannemarie Davis 44.44%
it’s also worth noting neither Rerras or Davis got the NRA endorsment
In terms of electability Gen Pace is the only one with a better chance.
And Marshall would take Prince William and likely Loudoun by a much better margin than Allen or Kilgore simply because they are the only areas where he’s well known.
plus the marriage amendment passed with 57 percent of the vote so that would be of great benefit to Del Marshall.
Funny how PWConservative forgot the two conservative Senate candidates in his home county- Jay O’Brien and Bob Fitzsimmonds. How did they do?
Bwana etal –
My point was , in part, that the once mighty Gilmore machine is rusty at best. To get ready for a general election, fighting a few amibitious challengers for the nomination is what his campaign really needs. Of course this is going against conventional wisdon, but I really think this is the case here. It goes without saying that the convention win needs to be decisive.
As far as the challenge from both the left and the right, I make that assumption that those characterizations will be made by the party faithful by reputations more than a real analysis of issues, but I’d say Saxman would have an impossible task to move hinself to the right of Gilmore on taxes or Marshall on anything really.
I’m just happy that Gilmore has a chance to get attacked within the party from both sides, so he can claim to be just about in the mainstream of Republicans when the general election starts. Once the general starts, you’ll never hear him utter a single word about anything other than national security issues and immigration. As you all remember well, once he picks an issue to run on, he’ll focus on it like a laser beam and refuse to vear from his message.
Not Larry Sabato
In response to your idiotic question Chuck Colgan was still thought of as Conservative by long-time voters and Bob FitzSimmonds did not send out any Mail pieces that stated that he was Pro-Life or Pro-Gun, FitzSimmonds even disavowed Colgans claims that he would jail women for abortions and still he received a higher percentage than any previous challenger
as for O’Brien he also did not prominently advertise that he was Conservative and lost by just one point unlike Uber-Liberal JMDD.
my point is Conservatives get a more favorable margin than moderates irregardless of the end result.
To be this involved in politics NLS you sure are stupid.
Hmmm…I wonder if I can take any credit.
http://masonconservative.typepad.com/the_mason_conservative/2007/11/the-saxman-fact.html#comments
See ‘Bob Marshall / A Pilgrim’s Diary: “Hey, God! Over here! It’s Me! Bob!’” in Chapter 10–Makes You Want To Holler, Notes From The Sausage Factory.
This guy is smart, funny, tenacious, doesn’t have to check the mirror or the wind every morning when he gets out of bed to know who he is, and committed. He’s a pragmatic ideologue. Is there such a thing? There is. How do you tell? He’s a right-winger without the glassy eyes. Bob can calculate the odds of the possible as well as anyone. His biggest strengths as candidate? Five. A solid home base–his committeds will show up to vote. No fear. Nothing to lose. Gilmore. Saxman. Weaknesses? Outside the district, the press and lobby corps, and memberships of the House and Senate, nobody knows him (these folks know him well, most are scared to death of him). Money. And campaign structure (this one he’d have to look up in a dictionary).
Underestimate Marshall at your own risk.–BKD
Why do Republicans find it so necessary to keep throwing up the same old tired candidates? I am a lifelong republican but there is no way Gilmore will win the Senate seat. Why can’t others see that? He WAS a failure as a Govenor…I am STILL paying a car tax (yes, 30% of it - but he said he would ELIMINATE IT, NOT REDUCE IT) and there WAS a budget deficit (sorry PWconservative - do you really think ALL the media conspired to fake a deficit??) and how many votes do you think he won with his dumb stance and meddling on the poor Hugh Finn right to die case? His presidential bid got nowhere, he was a failure as the head of the RNC. So exactly what has this tired old politician done to change anyone’s mind that he can win a Senate seat? Get new blood, we’re losing votes and seats every election and this loser will get beat 60% to 40% by Mark Warner. I am so disgusted with the Republican party for pushing up losers. The State has changed and we need to adapt as well in order to win. We’ve got another loser (again) and I’ll save this post and post it again when Warner wins.
Chuck Colgan definitely gets plenty of the conservative vote in PWC and O’Brien lost due to the Fairfax factor.
I can tell there are major problems with Gilmore’s candidacy even getting off the ground from the start. A strong canidate would NOT have two or more delegates in the GA challenging him off the bat. Gilmore is disliked by many of those who should be his biggest supporters. I am not sure if its his personality or what but the grassroots are definitely NOT comfortable with Gilmore right now.
If Marshall and Saxman do run it could be a very intersting campaign. Marshall will get a good solid portion of the social conservatives with his principled stand on abortion and Saxman will get a portion of fiscal conservatives with his cost cutting caucus with Gilmore taking the rest. We could definitely see another 1st district convention situation again at the convention with the votes split to keep Gilmore from getting the nomination and either Marshall or Saxman or whoever else enters thowing their support to the other candidate to keep Gilmore out.
Firstbelegal –
I must have missed it. What election has Gilmore ever lost? He has only run winning campaigns. The brief run for the Presidency was just to hike up his profile a little. It certainly worked in that regard because everyone talks about him now. His record at the ballot box has only been a winning one. That is not accidental. He has tremendous candidate skills.
On the car tax, I hope you understand that Gilmore could not eliminate the tax by Executive Order and a stroke of the pen. He needed cooperation from the General Assembly. The only problem is our legislature is ADDICTED to spending increases and while most supported the cut, NONE of the General Assembly members (Republican and Democrat) were willing to rein in their drunken spending binges long enough to complete the cut. These legislators are finding out now that they can’t even build roads because they can’t get their spending increases under control. The last election dealt them a little bit of reality. Time will tell if any of the spending addicts have learned anything.
Budget Deficit? The State Constitution does not allow for a deficit. A Governor must submit and sign a balanced budget. Of course Gilmore never had a budget deficit. That’s what the budget standoff was all about. The refusal of the General Assembly to back down on increasing the budget to the point that it would not balance (our Senate Republicans were the worst culprits). This “deficit” was posturing by the Assembly to keep their spending ways and the press buying into that myth. It happens to some degree during every budget cycle in Richmond. Everyone screams the “sky is falling” to get their way, and then the Budget Conference Committee will suddenly “find” previously hidden money to fill the gaps.
Failure as RNC Chairman? Name any person who could have found a way for the GOP to win the Governorships in New Jersey and Virginia that year? In New Jersey, they had an accidental nominee in Brett Schundler — an ultra conservative young Mayor of Jersey City who beat the establishment in a very low turnout primary. He was against a juggernaut businessman and self-funder who painted himself as a level-headed mainstream manager. Sound familiar? Gilmore still kept that race competitive by raising and pouring millions in to keep it afloat. When the 9-11 tragedy hit, Shundler who was a mayor of a nearby New Jersey suburb was nowhere to be found. He thought that in the heat of the campaign in September it was a good idea to go on a junket to Israel before the tragedy. Then, for security reasons, he was stuck there for almost a month and missing from action during the most horrific event in his state’s history. In Virginia, Mark Earley had no advisors or consultants who would listen to RNC and devise a plan to defeat Mark Warner. When they were brought to RNC to make the final presentation to the political staff on their plan to win, they presented an 18 inch scrapbook of press clippings about Earley mentoring youth. While admirable it was hardly a plan for victory. Gilmore still pressed on and helped get the Earley campaign far more funding than they would have gotten under normal circumstances. The Earley campaign took 5 days (if at all) to fire back responses to Warner’s attacks when it should have taken 15 minutes to make a proper response in a campaign at that level. Hardly Gilmore’s fault, yet he graciously fell on the sword so it wouldn’t be a reflection on Bush’s Presidency.
Hugh Finn – Yes, there are some people who find it acceptable to perform euthanasia on the helpless, but Gilmore is not one of them. Gilmore acted in response to the desperate requests from the BLOOD relatives of Mr. Finn (along with Delegate Bob Marshall) to save a man’s life. Yes, that was controversial and in this instance, Gilmore came down squarely on the right-to-life.
Yes, Gilmore has been part of some controversy and for whatever reason the press attacks him at every turn. It’s become very popular. Gilmore will not get every vote for the nomination. It just bothers me that you just spout these same false attacks the Richmond Capitol Press Corps has been able to spew all these years without being challenged as to their truthfulness.
Why don’t you and all the other so called “Republicans” who don’t like Gilmore and lie about his record just go find another candidate and SUPPORT that person and maybe advance some ideas that will make Virginia a better place? Jim Gilmore and his supporters will be doing that – advancing new, constructive ideas to help move the Commonwealth of Virginia forward.
The problem with the Republican Party at both the state and national levels is readily apparent on this blog. Republicans are just too damned smart for their own good. Having the intelligence to think critically, they are only too quick at criticizing each other and the candidates with whom they do not agree 100%. Democrats, on the other hand, rely on their sheep-like herding instincts in picking and following their leaders. Consequently, very little internecine bickering is heard from the herd. The HILLARY!/Obama thing is a bit of an anomaly, due to the polarizing effects both individuals have. Even those polarizing effects are gut reactions, rather than reasoned criticisms of their positions. Democrats do not have to come up with reasoned arguments against their Republican opponents. Republicans do it for them.
Advocator - I think part of the Republican trait of criticism within the party comes from mentality that conservatives will police their own a little more thoroughly than liberals.
I appreciate the last 3 comments for not-so-common sense explanations.
Agreed, Rob. It would behoove them to savor their vitriol for the Democrats rather than each other. The self-righteous policing should be confined to the primary/convention ballot box. Instead, they end up eating their young. It’s no wonder they just trot out “the same old tired candidates,” to borrow firstbelegal’s phrase. No one wants to stick their neck out for fear of getting their head chopped off by the hypercritical “I be mo’ conservative dan you” types. Like I said, the Democrats have a natural advantage in this area by being just too damned stupid to recognize and argue the nuances of being a socialist or liberal. They just vote for whomever the Party puts up, yellow dogs, communists, abortionists, whatever.
absolutely right, advocator. Much better to send up the obvious choice with no critical review of the candidate and the candidacy and let the democrats vet the candidate-and their baggage-for the public.
Yep, that’s the way to win elections!
I would not to Clean it Up that unfortunately for Gilmore, he did fail to complete a campaign promise. It may not be fair that he couldn’t do it on his own, but he made the campaign promise, he won the election, and now if nominated he gets to explain time and time again how he could not get his own tax cut through a legislature where his party held majorities in both houses.
Also unfortunately for Gilmore, it doesn’t matter that a couple of decades or more have passed since the GOP won both the va and nj governorships in the same year. They didn’t under his leadership…and so he gets to catch the javelin.
The problem with your description is you make it sound like the good things in the Gilmore years were because of him and the problems and challenges were just bad things happening to a good guy and he had no control over them.
I don’t think the public is going to buy it, and I don’t think it is the foundation of a winning campaign.
I would submit that these are the nit-picky discussions that we will have primarily among Republicans only. Once he’s nominated, this race will be about the safety and security of this country. GIlmore will make sure of it. He will stay on message like a laserbeam. In that arena he has the upperhand. A rehashing of past state budget battles will just not take the forefront. Has that ever been the case when our former Governors run for the US Senate?
We are forgetting how distant this election will be. By Fall of 2008, we will have a far more dangerous planet with Hillary very close to being leader of the free world. Mark Warner will have to either embrace or answer to her positions all through the campaign. Gilmore will be running with a solid conservative with strong national defense and security positions. He has a background in military counterintelligence and leading the Commission on Terrorism. He will be far more natural on the playingfield that the 2008 race will bring.
I think other than the bottomless pit of money Warner will have at his disposal, Gilmore will be faced with a much more favorable environment in which to run. We as a party just need to recognize he is our best shot, although I’m not oppsed to a nice, healthy nomination contest that will help him sharpen his message and tighten his campaign operations. Once he rolls through that it will give him one more win.
Clean it up, you may submit it and you may well be right.
However, I fear that Warner will be able to simply bring up the car tax-and the fact it still exists-and each time he does it he will gain votes.
We shall see…
[…] Black Velvet Bruce Li […]
I saw on Gilmore’s website he doesn’t have any Pro-Family positions in his Issues Section
Gilmore or Marshall — Gee, maybe the republican party should just concede now and donate the cash to improve transportation, education or address the illegal immigration situation. That might help carry the other Repubilcan candidates if they did that….
For a no-nonsense lesson on Congress, check this link out:
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/26b0d09397
Hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving