http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/26b0d09397

Hope you all had a nice Thanksgiving

However, I fear that Warner will be able to simply bring up the car tax-and the fact it still exists-and each time he does it he will gain votes.

We shall see…

We are forgetting how distant this election will be. By Fall of 2008, we will have a far more dangerous planet with Hillary very close to being leader of the free world. Mark Warner will have to either embrace or answer to her positions all through the campaign. Gilmore will be running with a solid conservative with strong national defense and security positions. He has a background in military counterintelligence and leading the Commission on Terrorism. He will be far more natural on the playingfield that the 2008 race will bring.

I think other than the bottomless pit of money Warner will have at his disposal, Gilmore will be faced with a much more favorable environment in which to run. We as a party just need to recognize he is our best shot, although I’m not oppsed to a nice, healthy nomination contest that will help him sharpen his message and tighten his campaign operations. Once he rolls through that it will give him one more win.

Yep, that’s the way to win elections!

I would not to Clean it Up that unfortunately for Gilmore, he did fail to complete a campaign promise. It may not be fair that he couldn’t do it on his own, but he made the campaign promise, he won the election, and now if nominated he gets to explain time and time again how he could not get his own tax cut through a legislature where his party held majorities in both houses.

Also unfortunately for Gilmore, it doesn’t matter that a couple of decades or more have passed since the GOP won both the va and nj governorships in the same year. They didn’t under his leadership…and so he gets to catch the javelin.

The problem with your description is you make it sound like the good things in the Gilmore years were because of him and the problems and challenges were just bad things happening to a good guy and he had no control over them.

I don’t think the public is going to buy it, and I don’t think it is the foundation of a winning campaign.

I must have missed it. What election has Gilmore ever lost? He has only run winning campaigns. The brief run for the Presidency was just to hike up his profile a little. It certainly worked in that regard because everyone talks about him now. His record at the ballot box has only been a winning one. That is not accidental. He has tremendous candidate skills.
On the car tax, I hope you understand that Gilmore could not eliminate the tax by Executive Order and a stroke of the pen. He needed cooperation from the General Assembly. The only problem is our legislature is ADDICTED to spending increases and while most supported the cut, NONE of the General Assembly members (Republican and Democrat) were willing to rein in their drunken spending binges long enough to complete the cut. These legislators are finding out now that they can’t even build roads because they can’t get their spending increases under control. The last election dealt them a little bit of reality. Time will tell if any of the spending addicts have learned anything.

Budget Deficit? The State Constitution does not allow for a deficit. A Governor must submit and sign a balanced budget. Of course Gilmore never had a budget deficit. That’s what the budget standoff was all about. The refusal of the General Assembly to back down on increasing the budget to the point that it would not balance (our Senate Republicans were the worst culprits). This “deficit” was posturing by the Assembly to keep their spending ways and the press buying into that myth. It happens to some degree during every budget cycle in Richmond. Everyone screams the “sky is falling” to get their way, and then the Budget Conference Committee will suddenly “find” previously hidden money to fill the gaps.

Failure as RNC Chairman? Name any person who could have found a way for the GOP to win the Governorships in New Jersey and Virginia that year? In New Jersey, they had an accidental nominee in Brett Schundler — an ultra conservative young Mayor of Jersey City who beat the establishment in a very low turnout primary. He was against a juggernaut businessman and self-funder who painted himself as a level-headed mainstream manager. Sound familiar? Gilmore still kept that race competitive by raising and pouring millions in to keep it afloat. When the 9-11 tragedy hit, Shundler who was a mayor of a nearby New Jersey suburb was nowhere to be found. He thought that in the heat of the campaign in September it was a good idea to go on a junket to Israel before the tragedy. Then, for security reasons, he was stuck there for almost a month and missing from action during the most horrific event in his state’s history. In Virginia, Mark Earley had no advisors or consultants who would listen to RNC and devise a plan to defeat Mark Warner. When they were brought to RNC to make the final presentation to the political staff on their plan to win, they presented an 18 inch scrapbook of press clippings about Earley mentoring youth. While admirable it was hardly a plan for victory. Gilmore still pressed on and helped get the Earley campaign far more funding than they would have gotten under normal circumstances. The Earley campaign took 5 days (if at all) to fire back responses to Warner’s attacks when it should have taken 15 minutes to make a proper response in a campaign at that level. Hardly Gilmore’s fault, yet he graciously fell on the sword so it wouldn’t be a reflection on Bush’s Presidency.

Hugh Finn – Yes, there are some people who find it acceptable to perform euthanasia on the helpless, but Gilmore is not one of them. Gilmore acted in response to the desperate requests from the BLOOD relatives of Mr. Finn (along with Delegate Bob Marshall) to save a man’s life. Yes, that was controversial and in this instance, Gilmore came down squarely on the right-to-life.

Yes, Gilmore has been part of some controversy and for whatever reason the press attacks him at every turn. It’s become very popular. Gilmore will not get every vote for the nomination. It just bothers me that you just spout these same false attacks the Richmond Capitol Press Corps has been able to spew all these years without being challenged as to their truthfulness.

Why don’t you and all the other so called “Republicans” who don’t like Gilmore and lie about his record just go find another candidate and SUPPORT that person and maybe advance some ideas that will make Virginia a better place? Jim Gilmore and his supporters will be doing that – advancing new, constructive ideas to help move the Commonwealth of Virginia forward.

I can tell there are major problems with Gilmore’s candidacy even getting off the ground from the start. A strong canidate would NOT have two or more delegates in the GA challenging him off the bat. Gilmore is disliked by many of those who should be his biggest supporters. I am not sure if its his personality or what but the grassroots are definitely NOT comfortable with Gilmore right now.

If Marshall and Saxman do run it could be a very intersting campaign. Marshall will get a good solid portion of the social conservatives with his principled stand on abortion and Saxman will get a portion of fiscal conservatives with his cost cutting caucus with Gilmore taking the rest. We could definitely see another 1st district convention situation again at the convention with the votes split to keep Gilmore from getting the nomination and either Marshall or Saxman or whoever else enters thowing their support to the other candidate to keep Gilmore out.

This guy is smart, funny, tenacious, doesn’t have to check the mirror or the wind every morning when he gets out of bed to know who he is, and committed. He’s a pragmatic ideologue. Is there such a thing? There is. How do you tell? He’s a right-winger without the glassy eyes. Bob can calculate the odds of the possible as well as anyone. His biggest strengths as candidate? Five. A solid home base–his committeds will show up to vote. No fear. Nothing to lose. Gilmore. Saxman. Weaknesses? Outside the district, the press and lobby corps, and memberships of the House and Senate, nobody knows him (these folks know him well, most are scared to death of him). Money. And campaign structure (this one he’d have to look up in a dictionary).

Underestimate Marshall at your own risk.–BKD

http://masonconservative.typepad.com/the_mason_conservative/2007/11/the-saxman-fact.html#comments

My point was , in part, that the once mighty Gilmore machine is rusty at best. To get ready for a general election, fighting a few amibitious challengers for the nomination is what his campaign really needs. Of course this is going against conventional wisdon, but I really think this is the case here. It goes without saying that the convention win needs to be decisive.

As far as the challenge from both the left and the right, I make that assumption that those characterizations will be made by the party faithful by reputations more than a real analysis of issues, but I’d say Saxman would have an impossible task to move hinself to the right of Gilmore on taxes or Marshall on anything really.

I’m just happy that Gilmore has a chance to get attacked within the party from both sides, so he can claim to be just about in the mainstream of Republicans when the general election starts. Once the general starts, you’ll never hear him utter a single word about anything other than national security issues and immigration. As you all remember well, once he picks an issue to run on, he’ll focus on it like a laser beam and refuse to vear from his message.

And in regard to a possible Marshall candidacy I think he would do very well, considering in the past few cycle’s conservatives garner a significantly percentage of the vote than moderates

Kilgore (moderate-wouldn’t take a strong stand on abortion)
T M Kaine Democratic 1,025,942 51.72%
J W Kilgore Republican 912,327 45.99%
Vs Allen (significantly more pro-life)
J H Webb Jr Democratic 1,175,606 49.59%
G F Allen Republican 1,166,277 49.20%

And this years senate races
Conservative’s
Frederick Quayle 58.62%
Frank M. Ruff 58.96%
Ralph K. Smith 50.75%
Emmett W. Hanger, Jr. 65.36%
Mark D. Obenshain 70.40%
Jill Holtzman Vogel 48.44% Vs Karen Schultz 47.16%
Richard H. Stuart 50.61%
Kenneth T. Cuccinelli II 50.02%

Liberal Republicans
Nick Rerras 45.52%
Jeannemarie Davis 44.44%
it’s also worth noting neither Rerras or Davis got the NRA endorsment

In terms of electability Gen Pace is the only one with a better chance.

And Marshall would take Prince William and likely Loudoun by a much better margin than Allen or Kilgore simply because they are the only areas where he’s well known.
plus the marriage amendment passed with 57 percent of the vote so that would be of great benefit to Del Marshall.