The More Things Change…
By Greg L | 27 November 2007 | Virginia Senate | 3 Comments
Jerry thinks the “ousting” of Walter Stosch as leader of the Senate Caucus is good news, and looks forward to Senate Republicans acting more like, well, Republicans. Now At The Podium seems happy as well. Although the leadership shakeup in the Senate does provide some cause for celebration (Mark Obenshain as whip is very good news), I doubt we’re going to see the Senate behave in any substantially different way than before as a result of this change. I’d like to be more hopeful about this relatively minor change, but I don’t see much basis for that hope.
To the extent we do see changes in the behavior of the Senate, the more significant causes will certainly be the ascension of Democrats to the majority, and the elimination of tax-hungry Republican Senators Potts and Chichester who could always be counted on to sabotage the enactment of whatever fundamental Republican principles were offered by the House of Delegates. Those two much more significant changes will inevitably result in more Republican unity, but the opportunity for that unity to make a difference is very much in question.
Governor Kaine has an opportunity here to call the shots for what will happen in the Senate, and it’s just about certain he’ll take advantage of it. Although the Senate has somewhat of an independent streak, regardless of which parties control the Governorship and the Senate, the opportunity to advance his legislative agenda at least through the Senate before it gets gutted by the House of Delegates offers an opportunity to score some partisan points, particularly in Northern Virginia. Getting Democrats to cross over and vote with a more unified Republican caucus is going to be more difficult in this session than ever before.
On some issues, there’s a decent opportunity for this to happen, and immigration issues likely top this list. Democrats representing solidly Republican districts are going to have a tough time explaining to their constituents why they wouldn’t be in favor of the legislative agenda on this topic advanced by Republicans during the last election, and if these proposals get to the Senate floor for a vote, it’s the Democrats that will be challenged with maintaining party unity. Rarely do these bills make it out of committee though, even when Republicans were calling the shots. So as usual, the challenge isn’t going to be getting floor votes, but rescuing legislative initiatives that could garner bi-partisan support from the graveyards that are Senate committees.
With the previous fractured Senate Republican caucus, the result was gridlock. With a new divided legislature, the result will be gridlock. Who controls the Senate Republican caucus isn’t likely to change that very much.
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I’d say that it’s imperative that Help Save Manassas and other “Help Save” groups reach across the isle at this point, in the name of non-partisanship…which is what these groups are supposed to be. There is a good chance that many of the new Democratic committee chairmen will be even more receptive than some of the Republicans in the previous State Senate on the illegal alien issue. It’s time to put partisanship aside and look toward governance in the true Virginia tradition.
Greg I disagree.
I think the most important turn of events was Stuart and Vogel replacing Chichester and Potts. There is nobody left in the caucus that will so openly side with Democrats and the governor. And don’t underesstimate Steve Newman as caucus chair, that is a big development. I think our caucus is more conservative than it was a month ago. Its not perfect and certainly not where I want it to be, but still . . .
and what about the possibility of William Wampler retiring, to be repalced by Terry Kilgore?
Why would Kilgore leave the House? He has senoirity and he’s in leadership. Plus, if any Republican won that seat they would re-districted out in four years anyway.