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PRIMARY GENDER GAPS
By RHarrison | 13 February 2008 | National Politics | 61 Comments
I noticed something interesting in the exit polls from the Presidential primaries. As has happened in most recent national elections, most of the people who voted in Republican primaries were men. On the other hand, most people who voted in the Democratic primaries were women. This is not especially surprising.
What is surprising is the size of those two gender gaps.
Using exit polls from CNN, I’ve looked at each state that has had a Republican and a Democratic primary so far. I then noted the gap between the percentage of women voters and the percentage of male voters in each state for each party. The resulting gender gaps are listed below.
Dem Rep
Alabama W +20 M +6
Arizona W +24 M +6
Arkansas W +20 M +2
California W +10 M +8
Connecticut W +18 M +8
Florida W +18 M +12
Georgia W +26 M +4
Illinois W +18 M +14
Iowa W +14 M +12
Louisiana W +20 M +2
Maryland W +24 M +2
Massachusetts W +16 M +14
Michigan W +14 M +12
Missouri W +12 M +2
Nevada W +18 M +4
New Jersey W +16 M +10
New York W +16 M +6
Oklahoma W +6 M +4
S. Carolina W +22 M +2
Tennessee W +18 M +2
Utah W +14 M +2
Virginia W +14 M +6
W = woman and M = Men
A “W +20” indicates 40% of the primary voters were men and 60% were women, resulting in a gender gap of 20%, in favor of women.
As you can see, in every state the gender gap is larger for Democrats than for Republicans, in some cases remarkably so. Georgia, Maryland and South Carolina have differences of more than 20 points between the Republican gap and the Democratic gap. The average spread among Democrats was just over 17%. For Republicans it was about 6.5%.
A couple of caveats. First, there is no demographic information on most caucuses, Iowa being a notable exception. When CNN had data, I included it. Second, CNN rounded all of the numbers off, so these are not exact. Third, I don’t know if these results were adjusted to match the actual results. Given the size of the differences, I doubt any of this matters much.
One possible explanation for these results is that Sen. Clinton is drawing women into the Democratic primaries. Maybe, but the Democrat’s gender gap is below average in New York, New Jersey, California and Massachusetts, states where she did very well. And the gap is well above average in Georgia, Maryland and South Carolina where Clinton did not do well.
A better explanation seems to be that Sen. Obama is drawing black women out to support him. The gender gap is bigger than average in South Carolina, Maryland, Louisiana, Alabama and Georgia, which also have large numbers of African-American voters. Good for Sen. Obama, but most of these folks were going to vote Democrat anyway, so turning them out now doesn’t help him much in the general election. Other than Maryland, he is not going to win any of these states in November.
It looks to me like the Democrats are having trouble attracting men to their candidates. The party is getting more women to vote, but is doing poorly among men. On the other hand, the Republican Party is doing a bit better among men, but has a much more even appeal.
If the Democrats can win the number of men that they usually get and increase the turnout among women, they will do well in November. If, on the other hand, they are turning off men at about the same rate they are gaining women, they could be in trouble.
Keep in mind that primaries generally attract few new voters. Most people who vote in primaries are activists who not only always vote, but who almost always vote for the same party. I’ve seen no evidence that this does not hold in this election. If this is the case, then the Democrats are motivating their female activists, but failing to do so with their male activists. The Republicans do not appear to have the same problem.
Gentlemen, the lesson here is clear: If you need date, be a Democrat.
UPDATE: Obama’s victory in Virginia sure seemed to make these women supporters in Texas awfully happy, although I doubt news coverage of these volunteers sporting the Cuban Flag with Che Guevara on it is the new coverage Obama was hoping for…
The opinions expressed here are solely the views of the author, and not representative of the position of any organization, political party, doughnut shop, knitting guild, or waste recycling facility, but may be correctly attributed to the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy. If anything in the above article has offended you, please click here to receive an immediate apology.
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This could also be women who are voting for Obama because they don’t want Hillary representing them as the first female president. This is a stretch, but I have heard this sentiment among two female voters who I know.
Greg wrote: Gentelmen, the lesson here is clear: If you need date, be a Democrat.
Yeah right, who’s ever heard of a “great piece of elephant?”…sorry, Greg, I like my women, intelligent, clean shaven, and not one who looks at pictures of previous girls and thinks, “Oh yeah, I’d hit that” - lol
[Ed note: no, I didn’t author this excellent post. Give the credit to RHarrison — he earned it!]
John Light 1:51 - Yea, much better with a “great piece of donkey”. A lot more kick! LQ (laughing quietly)
Otherwise, the results show that women are smarter and know what’s good for the country. Yeeeeeha!
I disagree totally with the purported “lesson.” While Democratic women may be more plentiful, I’ve found them to be extremely high maintenance, prone to depression, and more often than not conflicted in their sexual identities. I’ve found Republican women to be much better looking as well as much healthier mentally. These are just my observations, not generalities. I may be wrong. I’ll keep an open mind and continue to research. I’ll report back periodically on the results.
Advocator 3:28 - I’m awaiting your further research report with great expectations and bated breath. It’s refreshing to find a man actually admitting “I may be wrong”, be he Democrat or Republican!
OT, but there’s a good article on p. 17 of today’s WSJ entitled, “The Clintons’ Terror Pardons.” It’s a good rendition on Bill’s pardoning of FALN terrorists, who did not even ask for a pardon, in order to curry favor amongst the Hispanic Congressional causcus for Billary: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120277819085260827.html?mod=mostpop
Unfortunately, I do not believe you can log on to it unless you subscribe.
A more interesting discussion would be trying to explain why Democrats have outnumbered Republicans 2-1 in voting this primary/caucus season. Understanding that will be more important in terms of which party is better positioned for November.
Wow…someone has way too much time on his hands…aren’t there some illegals to hunt down? They gotta be hanging around 7-11 RIGHT NOW!! GO!!
The Democrats are having a hard time attracting men to vote? Hmmm…could it be because most of the potential male Democratic voters are in jail?
This Blog sucks,
Why would most of the potential male democratic voters be in jail? Please explain. Blonde moment here.
Holy crap. I can’t believe the hateful sludge that comes off this site most of the time, but it gets more and more unbelievable. Now we need to bash some women, the mentally ill, people’s gender identities, AND minorities, eh?
Just thought I would check in and see if anything had changed here at all. Yup. Sure has. New all time low even for this place.
I always thought the saying was, “date a Democrat, marry a Republican.”
Gnarly,
Snicker. I had not heard that. Now I know what the problem is!
This blogger sucks said on 13 Feb 2008 at 7:00 pm:
Wow
This blog sucks said on 13 Feb 2008 at 7:00 pm:
Wow…someone has way too much time on his hands…aren’t there some illegals to hunt down? They gotta be hanging around 7-11 RIGHT NOW!! GO!!
The Democrats are having a hard time attracting men to vote? Hmmm…could it be because most of the potential male Democratic voters are in jail?
_____________________
Attention hound. Logs on, makes unreasonable assertions to stir people up and then disappears. By responding to such ridiculous posts just feeds the craving for attention.
Greg/RHarrison,
My apologies, I missed who wrote the article.
Gnarly,
Yes, I remember that saying well from my days in High School. Everybody knows that Dem women tend to be more loose with their morals and Republican women tend to be better moms. Now before all the Dem women on here get their panties in a wad, the word “tend” means that “the vast majority of the time” it is like that…there are the occasionaly exceptions to the rule, such as my grandmother who was raised in a socialist country (England) and voted Democrat.
John
John Light said on 14 Feb 2008 at 9:45 am:
Everybody knows that Dem women tend to be more loose with their morals and Republican women tend to be better moms.
____________________
Wow, you are just asking for the hens to start cackling now!!! LOL
I may have to start selling popcorn for the hen pecking you are about to receive. If the blood gets to running too much, I will bandage ya up for the next round
/\/\3|)iç 64:
LOL - at least I did not say anything about lack of shoes in the kitchen - rofl
MEDIC!!!!! lol
John Light,
Or in the family way!!! That would have REALLY got them after you!!!
You may have to be on your own with this one. I will be there for medical support when you get pecked, but otherwise, I am going to have to distance myself since I am already blamed for being gender biased.
M64 and John Light - Maybe M64’s military stint made him that way. Is your children’s mother a Democrat BTW? - Don’t know where John Light is coming from. As a former Salvation Army Cadet and present Democrat I agree. Our pant(ie)s have loose elastic. But we enjoy life!
Add
And: he he he!
/\/\3|)iç 64 (Winner of the BVBL 40k and 50k post award) said on 14 Feb 2008 at 10:27 am:
John Light said on 14 Feb 2008 at 9:45 am:
Everybody knows that Dem women tend to be more loose with their morals and Republican women tend to be better moms.
____________________
Wow, you are just asking for the hens to start cackling now!!! LOL
I may have to start selling popcorn for the hen pecking you are about to receive. If the blood gets to running too much, I will bandage ya up for the next round
*******************************
Don’t tell me you two tough guys might be afraid of getting hen pecked?-lol
Gosh Advocator and just yesterday or the day before you warned folks not to generalize…….. short term memory loss??!!!
A Chick said on 14 Feb 2008 at 2:07 pm:
Naw, just loosing my eyesight
I am not hen pecked now so it doesn’t matter much. I run the house and my fiancee is happy about that. She will not spend over 50.00 without consulting me first and this is by HER choice not mine.
The previous spousal unit was a Democrat because she LOVED to spend even if we didn’t have it. True definition of such.
/\/\3|)iç 64 (Winner of the BVBL 40k and 50k post award) said on 14 Feb 2008 at 3:41 pm:
I think A Chick was just having a little hen house fun.
WGW,
I know
Whoo ee….
chix,
I always heard to date the dem boys to avoid the teeny weeny problems the Republican boys have. Elephant in name only. ALL TRUMPETTTT no trunk.
Happy V day chix.
Dolph: OMG-do you hear me cackling as I fly by?
Dolph,
Might want to check your facts:
The longest elephant penis can grow up to six and a half feet long.
( http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/194655/penis_size_in_the_animal_kingdom.html )
Una voce: I’m not generalizing. I’m observing. I’m researching. I’m very busy researching.
/\/\3|)iç 64,
Elephants IN NAME ONLY.
Having said that…was *I* discussing male appendages? **innocent look**
I hope you kept reading about marine mammals. That was quite interesting. Not exactly what we discussed several months ago, but interesting none the less.
You know, to quote Flip Wilson,” the devil made me do it!”
M64,
How do you do a heart on here using your secret language? (I have forgotten its name)
Well, maybe the person that commented about college kids at W&M was observing not generalizing……
Dolph said on 14 Feb 2008 at 4:24 pm:
“chix,
I always heard to date the dem boys to avoid the teeny weeny problems the Republican boys have. Elephant in name only. ALL TRUMPETTTT no trunk.”
Well, let me explain that “problem” as delicately as I can. Evel Knievel was a man of good height, yet when he jumped the Snake River Canyon, he looked mighty small. Most things, regardless of how BIG they are look SMALL when in CANYONS
Krutis said on 14 Feb 2008 at 11:33 am:
My children’s mother is a Republican and that is about the most you will hear me say about her out of respect for the boys…I am sure you understand.
To all the women on here, Democrat, Republicans, and those who won’t admit to either party…Happy Valentine’s Day.
To all the men: Don’t forget your mom and if she is no longer on this earth, tell at least one person you know what she meant to you.
JL,
Does that mean that taking your favorite Republican for a romantic weekend to the Grand Canyon might not be such a hot idea?
Perhaps an independent gets the best of both worlds.
A cheer for John Light;
He said what’s right!
For Valentine’s Day and every day:
“Step up and shake the hand
of someone you can’t stand.
You can tolerate it if you try”.
Wow, he is a lenten project if I ever saw one……
Una Voce (sorry Advocator),
There are lenten projects and then there are LENTEN PROJECTS. Your name is One Voice, not JOB.
Krusty,
I got in trouble the last time I tried that. I shook the hand of someone no one else liked. Ted Kennedy. My mother jumped all over me and told me she hoped I washed my hands afterwards. No more handshaking for the dolph. I will keep my lateral fins to myself.
JL,
All the ladies in my family are Democrats. You tell the ladies not to get their panties in a wad? You are lucky you have a monitor to hide behind or you might be getting your ass beat by a Democratic Man. Boy would you ever be embarrassed to get whipped by a liberal!
I think the turn of the tables here, woman, black man leading the charge for President is resulting is a small wave of hysteria (!) among a few white men. Not an opinion, not a generalization, just an observation.
Dolph 7:27 - Rubber gloves are EVERYwhere these days
I had tea at the Whitehouse with Mrs Nixon and Tricia once. Maybe I got contaminated also, but my mother wasn’t around.
Krutis,
My close encounter was not recent. It was when President Clinton was elected and there were events at the Lincoln Memorial. Yours wasn’t either if it was with Mrs. Nixon and Tricia were in the White House. I guess we just all took our chances. I didn’t mind shaking hands with Ted Kennedy. Had I minded, I would not have done it in the first place. I also talked to Dr. Ruth the same day. All was not lost.
Dolph - Memories, memories…. How sweet they are. - Another beautiful day. Hung my clothes on the line yesterday and they smell heavenly. I’m all for using solar power.
JimmyV said on 14 Feb 2008 at 8:31 pm:
“JL,
All the ladies in my family are Democrats. You tell the ladies not to get their panties in a wad? You are lucky you have a monitor to hide behind or you might be getting your ass beat by a Democratic Man. Boy would you ever be embarrassed to get whipped by a liberal!”
Actually you have that a bit backwards…it’s the liberal men who are the ones who are”whipped.” I would say, “bring it on”, but I was raised never to fight a woman.
Krutis,
I second that (clothes lines and solar power comment)!!!!
Have a great day,
John
Krutis said on 14 Feb 2008 at 6:57 pm:
Thank you
Dolph said on 14 Feb 2008 at 6:42 pm:
“JL,
Does that mean that taking your favorite Republican for a romantic weekend to the Grand Canyon might not be such a hot idea?”
No, Republicans lead the way for that type of stuff, look at Teddy R.
Personally, I took my Valentine (a few years back) to Viagara, um, Niagara Falls
JL,
I am a great fan of Teddy Roosevelt and love the national parks. A little cold on Valentines Day to go to my favorite one, which is Yellowstone NP.
I will have to check Niagara out. I have never been there. Do you recommend the American or Canadian side? Please take note of my improved behavior today. **innocent look**
“Never taught to fight a woman”, just denigrate them beyond belief. How impressive.
Dolph said on 14 Feb 2008 at 5:09 pm:
My secret language is American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII pronounced asskey) characters.
I have not seen a heart in them before.
Dolph - I spend my 18- hour June 14 honeymoon at Niagara Falls an eternity ago. It was wonderful. I’ve been back several times; the last was about 7 yrs ago with my grandkids. The place has gradually been going downhill; has become a honkey-tonk town. Best views are from Canadian side. If you get that far north, you ought to go up to Ontario and visit quaint little Niagara-on-the-Lake.
The falls are impressive and a ride on the boat down under is exciting. Don’t expect anything like Yellowstone!
Dolph,
DEFINITELY stay on the Canadian side (I think you need passports now) looking towards the American Side. There are a lot of activities besides the obvious (um, going to the Falls )…it’s like going to a boardwalk at the beach
All that being said, be prepared…when they ask if you want refills on your soda, it will cost you. Also, they don’t do gallons so when you fill up your vehicle, be prepared - lol.
And, if you happen to be driving in New York in the middle of the night and you get pulled over by NYs finest and he asks where you are going, say, “We are going to Niagara Falls to get married and then spend our honeymoon”…what was MY response, well, let’s just say that honesty pays - lol
John
I went at VD and the Falls were frozen. At night they lit them in rainbow lights - it was BEAUTIFUL!!!!
Dolph,
I have never been to Yellowstone…have seem many pictures of it and do hope to go one day. If you ever get the chance, go up to Washington State - Mt. Ranier is incredible.
John
Funny how this thread went from “Primary Gender Gaps” to a “hit-and-run” against me (lol), to talking about our National Parks - who needs Open Threads - lol
Yes John, you were the driver of the hit and run, but that was yesterday and today is today and we are both behaving ourselves.
I totally agree with you about Washington State. OMG. Gorgeous in places! I did go up Mt. Rainer and loved it. We ran into someone from Manassas while up there, of all things. Have you been up HUrricane Ridge in Mt. Olympus or Mt. St. Helens?
Now I need to go back. We were spending 4th of July over on the coast in Long Beach, Washington. Best and longest fireworks in the USA. Long Beach is the sister city of Charlottesville because of Lewis and Clark. Oh…and how about the Oregon Coast???
Yellowstone is my favorite but Washington State runs a real close second. Thanks for reminding me!!!
The first comment (from Nick) fits with several of my friends’ behavior: women who voted for Obama out of distaste for Hillary. With my friends, they did this on Tuesday even though they are learning toward McCain in the general election in November. I don’t cross over and identify myself as Republican, so I voted in our primary. But I was surprised at my friends, most of whom would identify Independent, but they were really riled up by their distaste for Hillary and chose to send a message through voting against her in the Democratic primary. Hillary is polarizing. A lot of women I know don’t like her.
Also, Niagara-on-the-Lake is lovely, since it was mentioned a couple posts up. It has a couple awesome inns. And a couple nice spas, too. Peaceful. Pretty. Polite. Some “good eats,” too. A neat contrast to the boardwalky aspects of the Falls a few miles away. My advice to those who are ever in the area: go to Fort Niagara. It is a cool historic side trip. Even though I grew up amongst transplanted French Canadiens, I still find the difference between the American and Canadian takes on the War of 1812 (and King Phillip’s War, as well) awesomely funny. According to our allies-to-the-north’s presentation at Fort Niagara, 1812 was sounding quite a bit like “the war of Southern aggression.” I buy the American version of that history.
Dolph,
You are right and you are welcome
John