The Recovery Starts Now
By Greg L | 14 March 2008 | Local Economy | 52 Comments
The DC Examiner reports that the number of residential foreclosures has finally stopped rising, and has dropped almost 24% in one month in Prince William County, an improvement that tops the rate of improvement in all other areas of Northern Virginia. This comes at the same time that enforcement of the Rule Of Law Resolution has started to take effect, and data floods in to demonstrate that illegal aliens are leaving Prince William County. We may well be at the point where the property owners start seeing a reversal in the slide of their equity, and the long-awaited real estate market stabilization is may now be at hand.
The first indicator of a recovery in the residential real estate market locally was certain to show up in the foreclosure rates, which have created an oversupply in the market. Once this added market supply is removed, the residential real estate market can return to the sanity that previously prevailed, and significantly improve not only the equity positions of homeowners but municipal budgets that rely on property assessments for their financing. With the dramatic improvement of the quality of life in county neighborhoods resulting from the Rule Of Law Resolution in Prince William County, we once again are an attractive area for Virginians to make their home. We’re now at that point where economics and policy have come together, and the market may be in for a dramatic and rapid recovery.
If you’re planning on coming to Prince William County, you better act quick. This may well be the market bottom. Once the foreclosures have flushed out, which may have largely happened from the looks of this article, things are going to turn around pretty quickly.
The opinions expressed here are solely the views of the author, and not representative of the position of any organization, political party, doughnut shop, knitting guild, or waste recycling facility, but may be correctly attributed to the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy. If anything in the above article has offended you, please click here to receive an immediate apology.
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Does he really so loco to think that it’s over based on one fluctuation?
Nice try, but this is just what we call a “dead cat bounce.” When gas hits $5.00 a gallon, the real panic will ensue. Read all you can on the Great Depression. Where we are headed will make that look like a cake walk.
Only God and the Red Chinese can save us this time.
I really hope you’re right. We bought in 2006 and put down nearly 40%….I think we’ve lost just about every penny of that now…
I read that foreclosures were down lightly nationwide in January. Some of this is in no doubt due to the help that the Feds are currently giving to qualified homeowners.
Jail counts 313 illegal immigrants since July
The Prince William/Manassas Regional Adult Detention Center (ADC) has completed checking the immigration status of the jail population in conjunction with its 287g agreement with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
On July 10, 2007, the Adult Detention Center began implementation of the 287g program, which authorizes trained staff to investigate inmates’ legal status and to begin deportation proceedings if necessary. Since July 10, the staff has issued immigration detainers for those inmates who were currently incarcerated and those inmates committed to the ADC. During that time a total of 313 individuals have been issued immigration detainers.
http://www.gainesville-times.com/news/2008/mar/13/jail-counts-313-illegal-immigrants-july/
In the words of Clay Davis: sheeeeeeeeeit
We are still thick in the meat of this bad real estate market folks. Half the ARMs haven’t even reset yet, mine included. I am now no doubt upside down as well marine wife and I bought at the low point. I can’t even imagine what you and others that bought at the top are feeling. I feel for all of us. The tasty icing on the cake is that my tax assessment is a good 100k more than I could sell for too…
No folks, there is a lot more pain to go for those of us in PWC and the 2 cities. Fairfax has leveled out. We still have a ways to go.
When gas hits $5.00 people will pay it and cut back in other areas. People will carpool and use mass transportation. No one will like it but the handwriting is on the wall. Enough of the chicken little talk.
I do think we have seen the worst of it. Recovery may be slower here than in other areas, however, due to the median income disparity between us and Fairfax County.
I hope some lessons were learned by our government officials. The overbuiliding that was allowed to occur should not be repeated. Planned communities with open space and green buffers are the way to go. PWC has fewer parks and open space than Fairfax or Loudoun. The past few years around here have been a veritable land grab of development, resulting in a lot of ugly communities and poorly constructed buildings.
Lenders should not be allowed free reign to offer loans to persons without income statements or proof of residency. Consumers are (or will be) footing the bill for many of these predatory lending practices, so it IS our business to dictate how these loans can be issued.
I disagree that the state of the housing market was sane prior to the collapse. Just like with the high tech stock bubble, we convinced ourself that there was a new paradigm, and that the economy in NoVA was recession-proof. Hopefully everyone has learned a lesson that will stick in our memories for a long, long time.
UFB. So off the mark.
Just my opinion, but I’m beginning to sniff some potential change in the wind. Speculators are beggining to buy up some of those foreclosed on properties that have recently gone to auction. I know one of them personally and he bought more then a few just over the last couple of weeks. This same person began snapping up homes just before the market went through the stratosphere and made a killing. Didn’t see him for years and now he’s back. For whatever it’s worth, I consider that a good omen.
Dead cats bounce 1st, then stink like hell. Hold your noses, folks. We’ve got another 10% to lose. Speculators are looking to become slum lords, then sell out to the gubbermint at inflated prices.
Love the Clay Davis reference … miss The Wire.
National news reported the other day that another ARM bump-up is due in May. Lots more foreclosures to come and there is virtually nothing being done (or should be) for those who chose to play the market and got burned.
We are still in the beginning of this mess Folks.
Where are the indictments for all these Liar Loans - the mortgage brokers and lenders knew that they were lending to shaky borrowers, but in their greed, they did not slow down.
Enron was much smaller, and more contained - but there were indictments.
These people who are buying up a lot of houses are not our friends. They are going to make them livable and then rent them out. Go do a drive by through Irongate. Back in the day Irongate was all young folks with a kid or 2. Home ownership. Then the investors came in. The rest speaks for itself. Same with Georgetown South.
I see the same thing happening with the single family homes. Then we are right back where we started.
Yep its already happening in my neighborhood. Section 8 housing is taking over and a 5 year old development is sliding quickly into ghetto status. You will see people buying up condos and homes and renting them out as this moves on in intensity through the rest of this year. I’m not as concerned for the ‘value’ of my home as I am the condition of the development and the types of people moving in. My condo association ignores all of the offenses and brushes me off like a fly. Legal action appears to be the only thing that will motivate them to do what I pay them to do.
The good news on the housing market (buried on page 11 of the Examiner and not reported in the MJM at all) is welcome but does not mean the time to celebrate has arrived. By the same token, the world is not coming to an end with an economic collapse worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. The Savings and Loan Crisis of the 80s and 90s brought on similar fears and caused a mild recession. However, the government bailed out the crooks and morons who caused that crisis to avoid an economic calamity. They’re in the process of doing the same now.
Today started well for the stock market as futures and early trading rallied with the low inflation number. However, Bear Stearns admitted that they were essentially broke. To avoid a liquidation that would have dumped billions of dollars of their securities holdings on the market all at once and caused a market debacle, JP Morgan and the New York Federal Reserve Bank announced a bailout. As I write this, the DJIA is down about 200 points. Expect more of this sort of thing for while. It’s essentially the same story we saw play out in the 80s and 90s; just with a different cast of crooks, idiots and officials bailing them out at our expense.
Illegal aliens, speculators and “take-the-money-and-run” mortgage brokers all contributed to creating the current weakness in PWC’s housing market. However, the main culprit in exacerbating our situation beyond the extent most other areas face was our own Board of Supervisors’ practice of approving virtually every residential comprehensive plan amendment and rezoning that came their way. It’s simple supply and demand. The BOCS allows the development industry to increase supply however much they want; that supply exceeds the demand; and prices tumble. All the while, the developers and associated businesses cashed in on a windfall at our expense for several years.
Making matters worse was the rampant hiring of cheap, illegal alien labor in the construction industry. Those folks have to live somewhere so they turned homes in our neighborhoods into boarding houses. Residential development does not pay its own way in taxes (even for houses occupied by legal residents). The developers and their accomplices on the BOCS rubbed salt in our wounds by requiring us not only to pay higher taxes to support public services for the occupants of the new homes, but also to subsidize their cheap, illegal alien labor through their use of public services, free medical care at our hospitals, and overcrowding in our schools.
Several posters to BVBL, including myself, have pointed out the outrageous contributions developers and associated industries have made to BOCS members. Check out www.vpap.org. In particular, Covington, Nohe and Jenkins received on the order of $100,000 each in campaign contributions in 2007; an election in which they had no credible opposition in the primaries or general election. They vote most consistently in favor of developer interests.
The developers’ representatives on the BOCS have been trying their best to open the Rural Crescent to residential development, exemplified by recent actions such as Fireside Wesleyan Church. That episode was made even more detestable by the pro-developer supervisors exploiting well-meaning church people to achieve their agenda. Witness also their success in reducing land targeted for parks. An acre open to the public as a park is an acre a developer can’t build on.
Don’t be excessively concerned about the economy, or the housing and stock markets. They’re in bad shape now but that will pass. It always has. However, when the economy and markets perk up, residential development will follow suit. With that will come demand for cheap labor. Those laborers will again need housing.
Watch for the developer-friendly members of the BOCS to accommodate residential comprehensive plan amendments and rezonings, and weaken enforcement of laws aimed at illegal aliens. We’ve seen some unanimous votes and citizen-friendly rhetoric over the past year or so. That’s easy in the weak construction market. However, don’t expect that consensus to continue when the development industry, the main contributors to several of our BOCS members, again wants cheap labor. The illegal aliens’ best friends are not the leaders of Mexicans Without Borders, but the development industry, the Chambers of Commerce, and supervisors who permit this to go on. Remember that there is no new history, only repetition of what we’ve seen before.
Thank you, Concerned, for a most articulate, erudite, and illuminating post.
@ Concerned
I agree 99%. The 1% disagreement is with speculators. Not all of them are crooked. If I had the capital right now, I’d be one. Some of the houses going on the block right now are great investments. The cash cow for the slum lords is seeking greener pastures and any short term profiteering to be done in the housing market within the next year or two won’t be what it has been for the past few years.
Speculators are not in the business of owning empty properties. Concerned does illustrate the cycle very well in his post. As the property goes unrented, desperation sets in and the owner will lease to whomever has the cash in hand. Over the past couple of months I have watched a property owner in my development try to sell his house. When that didn’t work, the “for sale” sign was replaced with a “for rent” sign. I saw some nice cars drive up to the house, but there were no takers. Then a work van pulled up one day. A second one followed. The sign came down, and now there are three white work vans in the driveway. A similar house down the street has been on the market for about six months. I noticed recently that a “si habla Espanol” sign was added to the top of the real estate sign. At least they had the courtesy to keep the screen door closed
I don’t believe the article. As park’d pointed out there are lots ARMs out there that haven’t reset yet. Plus there are LOTS of short sale/third party aprroval homes on the market that will fall into foreclosure in the near future.
park’d said:
“I’m not as concerned for the ‘value’ of my home as I am the condition of the development and the types of people moving in.”
This too is my greatest concern. I fear that my community will soon become another Georgetown South.
You bet that Spculators and Investors who swipe up these houses are not what is good for the Community. Here comes your slum Landlords. We have them now and the County seems to have a hard time controlling the messes.
Now we will see them buying these and do a quick add ons,so that they can rent out to 3/4 familys. Look at the McMansions that are currently in our older neighborhoods. No way the County will deal with this.We have tried in old Woodbridge but got no where with Barg for many years and it doesn’t seem like we will get anywhere with Principi.
Have you seen the updating on the Land Use and Housing being done for the Comp. Plan? In here it talks about 3 little housing be aloud on a single family lot.
I wonder why? Look at whos on the Committee, Kopko for one and Granville-Smith representing Woodbridge, but he is from the Werstern End.
Seems the Comp. Plan will tear our County apart.
Maybe I’m looking through rose covered glasses, however, the way I see the flop house gravy train is over for at least a year - hopefully forever. Both crooked and legit speculators have to see this or they probably wouldn’t be in the position to be buying these houses up. So why are they buying them now? My guess is to fix them up and flip them. The guy I know that does it does not rent. He fixes them up and sells them.
Am I’m being too much of an optimist?
Dolph, I thought Georgetown South was now gov’t subsidized? Do you know?
http://www.azstarnet.com/altsn/default/newsletterclickthru/229617
“Firm helps Mexicans get jobs in Canada”
Mark Granville-Smith, developer and president of the Prince William County chapter of the Northern Virginia Building Industry Association, is a much greater threat to our quality of life and property tax bills than is John Steinbach of Mexicans Without Borders. Granville-Smith views the Rural Crescent as an inventory of land awaiting use by him and his developer associates. He argues that residential development is a plus for the County’s finances by ignoring its costs and citing only the revenue side. He fights for greater density and a free hand for all developers. Worst, he is a member of the committee charged with revising PWC’s Comprehensive Plan.
Steinbach is a “useful idiot” for people like Granville-Smith. Steinbach comes across to me as someone who is misguided in his views, but sincere and highly moral in his philosophy. Developers such as Granville-Smith can hide in the shadows and let others, such as John Steinbach, argue their cause for welcoming cheap, illegal labor from a moral, rather than a profit, perspective.
Tom Kopko played a significant role in helping defeat the Brentswood development in 2006. I would be surprised if he’s throwing in with the developers in the Comprehensive Plan revision.
Prince William County needs a blend of development that includes residential and non-retail commercial. When we get an appropriate mix, the revenue-positive commercial subsidizes the revenue-negative residential. Our community can grow, improve public services (including expanding parks and open space), and hold the line on property taxes for citizens. PWC has a long way to go to get enough non-retail commercial development to make up for the excess of residential development we got in the past.
Moreover, the jobs that development creates should go to those legally eligible to work in the United States at livable wages with ALL taxes due by employer and employee alike being paid.
Developers prefer residential development because it’s usually more profitable (especially in PWC). They can throw up the units, get out of town and leave us holding the bag of higher taxes, and congested schools and roads. Our choice becomes paying higher taxes to sustain our levels of public services or allowing those levels of service to deteriorate. That imbalance of residential development crowding out commercial development was the cause of our tax and quality of life problems in the years leading up to the housing market collapse, as well as a major cause of the collapse itself.
If we allow the Board of County Supervisors to cater to the demands of the development industry again when the economy and markets improve, we’ll be right back where we were in terms of rising taxes, deteriorating quality of life, and the problems associated with illegal aliens as that industry re-erects its “welcome” sign to cheap labor.
There were five pages of foreclosures in the Potomac News yesterday. I hope we’ve seen the worst of it, but I doubt it.
Anonymous said on 14 Mar 2008 at 4:11 pm:
We haven’t, there are more coming. I hope the Gov’t doesn’t bail them out either. I hope the lenders and home owners have to suffer the consequences of their actions. Why should I have to pay for someone else’s mistake and greed??
I absolutely agree, /\/\3|)iç 64.
I have seen numerous posts that are critical of the lenders…and there is no doubt that thirst for commission led lenders to approve loans that had no business being approved at all. However, let’s not forget those individual buyers who were so stupid as to buy more than they could afford.
Real Estate is not the only area in which this applies, either…we see TV commercials advertizing furniture, “buy today with no payments until 2011.” Can you believe that??? Do you think it’s possible that maybe something ELSE will come up between now and 2011 that demands a piece of that income? Just this afternoon, on the radio, a commercial for a college loan…the claim was “up to $40,000 in just 10 days for a college loan.”
It used to be that we used credit to buy necessities, not luxuries, and we’ve somehow gotten away from that toward the mindset that if you want it, buy it. It’ll work out somehow. Don’t you think it about time that we start mandatory training of financial responsibility in the school system? If it’s not done in the schools, there’s no other place — training at home obviously won’t make the situation any better.
it is our entire society that has caused all this credit mess.
It only costs $10 per month to buy that stereo.
It only costs $100 per month to buy all that furniture
It only costs $350 to lease that bmw/nissan/kia/honda.
People of today do not save to purchase items, they buy them on credit so that they can have it now. Some of my neighbors laugh at me, because both my cars are pre 2000 models - oh how can I drive cars that are ’so’ old. But, I own my cars - not lease them, or flip in and out of cars every year.
Another thing, is that there is too much disposable income - if you have enough money to go out to eat 2 or three nights a week, well then, you have too much money - give some to me, or save more for your retirement.
Some people find paying 23% interest acceptable, but waiting 6 months to buy something is unheard of.
Freedom said on 14 Mar 2008 at 4:59 pm:
The home can not teach it because the parents do not know how to teach it. I think they should just learn to tell the kids no. I told my kids no on more than one occassion.
I have room on my credit cards for “emergencies” which do not include the latest video console or game. It doesn’t include that evening out with the Mrs. It doesn’t include that new “toy” in the phone kiosk. It does include the emergency road repair on a trip though. I do rent to own some furniture, but I pay more than the minimum amount. I have it figured out to how much it would have cost and I pay the bill ahead of time so I am only paying the original amount. Works pretty well.
I am making sure my cards are at their bare minimums in this time of economic uncertainty. On card has a 1,750 limit but only has 50.00 on it. I want to make sure there is a cushion for an emergency. If you can not afford it, don’t get it.
Concerned is correct, and it goes further than that. The Land Use committee also has Tom Burrell on it who has been quoted in the paper as saying “Developers shouldn’t have to pay proffers, it’s not fair.” and Chuck Rector, another developer, although he is commercial. Yes, all stakeholders should have been involved in the process but Granville Smith is particularly irritating as he has actively tried to take down the rural crescent twice.
This committee bears watching considering they are holding meetings that citizens don’t know about and don’t attend. The public will be shocked when the committee’s results are presented to the Planning Commission…..high density is coming to every neighborhood in PWC unless citizens are involved in communicating to the board that enough is enough. We don’t want high density and you can’t fool us by making up stuff about “centers of communities” where you try to hide the real agenda which is more and more homes with less and less pavement to get people moving.
Pat Herve,
You are right. Of course there are some items that have to be purchased on credit. The other issue that needs to be addressed is the cheapness of many items being made these days. People do not think twice about tossing an $80.00 DVD or CD player out if it starts to act up. Back when the majority of goods were made right here in America, they were made to last, and people kept them for years. Now that most items are made in Red China, the quality has gone way down.
I purchased a snow shovel back in 1996 during the back to back snow storms we had, I believe I paid something like $40(I can’t recall the exact price, but I do remember it was pretty expensive), but it was made here in America and it was solid. I still have it. I wonder about the folks who at the same time purchased the cheapo ones from China and how many more they have had to purchase over the years.
I usually keep my cars 8 to 9 years or more before I decide to buy again, and I buy only Ford or GM products.
COM,
We throw them away because it costs more to have one fixed than it costs to just buy a new one.
China is going to be our undoing.
Dolph,
Exactly, because people do not value such items any longer. We have become a disposable society. But, if they were built better, meaning, if they were still built here in America, they would last. However, we would rather buy multiple numbers of one item then to spend more money on just one.
On a similar note, people complain about the cost of one gallon of gas, but will gladly spend $4.00 on a cup of coffee from Starbucks, or will spend two dollars for a 16oz bottle of water.
Thank you Concerned for your comments. I’m not so positive about the economy though. Have you heard of peak oil. Interesting stuff.
I’m afraid that even though the market has hit rock bottom, it is going to take quite a long time to recover. There is almost 2 years worth of inventory in Prince William County. There is also an abundance of inventory in Fauquier and Loudon Counties. Fairfax is faring better, but there are still more foreclosures coming their way too. Many ARMS have not yet reset. So while this is a glimmer of hope, you might want to fasten your seat belts because it will be a bumpy ride for quite a while.
In addition to more bank owned properties, look for numerous short sale properties. Shorts are gaining in popularity and lenders would actually rather deal with a short than a foreclosure. Shorts are difficult and tedious work, not to mention extremely frustrating for all parties involved. Not all REALTORS are handling this type of work because the commissions are low and work long. But it can be done and is better for the seller. Sellers get dinged on their credit, but it doesn’t show as a foreclosure.
Of course, many of our more culturally diverse neighbors really don’t care about their credit.
“I usually keep my cars 8 to 9 years or more before I decide to buy again, and I buy only Ford or GM products.”
My suggestions to make a car last a long time:
1)Check the oil level at least once a month and add oil if it’s low. Change the oil as often as specified by manufacturer recommendations, using API SL or SM certified oil. (Off-brand oil that does not meet API specifications is available; check the label to avoid using this stuff.) If you have a diesel rig you should make sure to use a diesel engine oil. API CI-4 Plus is the latest spec for diesel engine oil.
2)Change the coolant (I do it every 3 years). Coolant looses it’s corrosion protection as it ages, which can cause your engine’s cooling system to rust, and older coolant formulations have silicates in them which can fall out of suspension and damage water pump seals, making them leak. The silicates form abrasive particles much like sand. If you need to top off the cooling system use premixed coolant or mix the coolant with distilled water (half water/half coolant). Continually topping off a cooling system with tap water will result in mineral buildup.
3)Change the transmission fluid and the filter. Many owner’s manuals claim the transmission fluid is a “lifetime” fluid and never needs to be changed. Yea, right. I’d do this every 50K at least, “lifetime fill” or not. Transmission fluid is cheap, transmissions are not.
4)Bleed the brake fluid every 4 years. Brake fluid absorbs moisture. This can promote corrosion in the braking system. If the car is a stick shift it probably has a hydraulic clutch that uses brake fluid too and it should be bled as well.
5)Rinse the underside of the car after salt has been used on the roads in winter.
6)Most car batteries, even ones sold as “maintenance free” can have water added (use distilled water). This makes them last longer and reduces the chances of an internal battery explosion. Submerged plates won’t spark and explode–there’s no air for that to happen, but they can if they’re exposed to air because the electrolyte level is low. The vent caps (usually there are two per battery, each covering three cells–they usually have the warnings printed on them) can be pried off with a screwdriver, then add water until the electrolyte is level with the bottom of the well.
7)Have the battery tested at least twice a year and at the first sign of any battery problems. A bad battery can kill a starter or alternator. Don’t be cheap and continually jumpstart a car because you don’t want to buy a new battery. You’ll soon be buying both a new battery and a new alternator.
Addendum to #6: Typically in this climate, a car battery will be low on water (electrolyte below the bottom of the wells) after about 1.5 years. It also depends on your car–some cars have higher underhood temps than others. If you replace the battery, don’t forget to transfer the battery insulator/wrapper (if it has one) to the replacement battery–it’s there to protect the battery from the heat and make it last longer.
With all due respect, folks, I don’t know how anybody can believe we have started a recovery with headlines like this one:
Stocks Drop As Investors Fret Over Bear Sterns
The Dow Closed Down More Than 194 Points on Friday
By TIM PARADIS
AP Business Writer
March 14, 2008
NEW YORK (AP) — Stocks have suffered another big drop after a plan to alleviate a liquidity crisis at Bear Stearns Cos. touched off concerns about the severity of the credit market’s overall troubles.
Friday’s plan by the New York Federal Reserve and JP Morgan Chase & Co. offers Bear Stearns relief from a sudden liquidity crunch that analysts surmised could have felled the investment bank. But the company’s position on the precipice of financial disaster has left many investors shaken and spoils some hopes that the moribund credit market is on the mend.
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/story?id=4454073&page=1
This is extremely disturbing news. What’s happening is, investors are bailing out of the market and the Feds are having to bail out the investment houses.
Could runs on banks be next?
They should just let bears sterns go out of business. I do not understand why the feds are bailing them out.
BSC practiced bad behavior - and they are being bailed out - they should be punished - they were raking in the dough, and paying their big bonuses on wall street - all the while they were creating a mess of our banking system. Lets just watch - BSC will still pay out their bonuses for outstanding performance - and we need to pay these bonuses to attract high quality individuals to work here
The same thing Bernanke asking the mortgage lenders to remove principal from the loans that are in trouble - I chose my house and mortgage because I could afford them - where is my principal reduction? I would gladly have it reduced - I also overpaid for my house.
To add to the ongoing problems, the COMPOST has a story today that covers the increase in foreign home buyers in America due to the lower value of the dollar. I can’t imagine these buyers will be living in these homes, so many of these homes will be rental units.
Concerned wrote…”Mark Granville-Smith, developer and president of the Prince William County chapter of the Northern Virginia Building Industry Association, is a much greater threat to our quality of life and property tax bills than is John Steinbach of Mexicans Without Borders. Granville-Smith views the Rural Crescent as an inventory of land awaiting use by him and his developer associates.”
Concerned,
WOW–Spot on! You definitely have your finger on the pulse of Prince William!
Mark Granville Smith is also on the Board of the Prince William Regional Chamber of Commerce and has recently teamed up with the another Board member who chairs the Economic Development Council named Miles Friedman.
Miles Friedman is using the churches in an affordable housing scam that is county funded to bring sewerage to the rural crescent. Thankfully Wally Covington is on to it, but I just don’t know if he can stop it. The county has aready given Friedman a quarter of a million dollars of which he paid himself $160k in consulting fees. Talk about a conflict of interest and bad use of our tax dollars!
Gerhart, the county CXO is aware of this, and Friedman and Partners recently merged with MDA Technology, another board member of the Economic Development Council and Prince William Regional Chamber.
They’re going after the rural crescent. You betcha.
Add Nohe to the list, another PWCRC Board member and strategic operative!
Can you say FOIA!
Concerned said on 14 Mar 2008 at 11:38 am:
The good news on the housing market (buried on page 11 of the Examiner and not reported in the MJM at all) is welcome but does not mean the time to celebrate has arrived. By the same token, the world is not coming to an end with an economic collapse worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s. The Savings and Loan Crisis of the 80s and 90s brought on similar fears and caused a mild recession. However, the government bailed out the crooks and morons who caused that crisis to avoid an economic calamity. They’re in the process of doing the same now.
Concerned can you tell us what was the First S&L in the DC area to go out of business in the 60’s which is when the S&L failures started? I doubt it but it was Republic Savings and Loan which operated in Md and DC. Can you tell us why the S&L failure happened? It was the tax scam started because of the Tax Laws which promoted fast write off of investments which the public wants but not to pay the price for what it truly costs
You whine like Stewart and Frederick, Marshal ,Cattigan and all the other I am better then anyone else but know nothing. It is the PUBLIC’s falut for being greddy and STUPID. Stewart at one BOCS meeting said he wished someone had told him that this was going to happen to Real Estate. Only a fool would have believed that this was not going to happen. The more greedy one is the bigger the fall as well. We have a couple more years to go before we will see any real recovery in the RE Market.
You like Stewart and the other no growth better then anyone else people do not believe in Law or rights of people. If you want to stop growth it can be done very legaly. Just limit one car per house and growth will come to a halt in PWC. There is nothing in the Constitution that would limit the BOCS to pass and inact such a law. Of course you would not do that for it would effect the value of your house. You blame developers for building then you must not want people to have children who want to live in N VA. I have lived here for over 60 years and have never complined about people moving in nor have I ever had the pompus attitude that I am so good that I should be able to tell others if they can be allowed to come here and live either.
The proffer system is a FAILURE but you and Stewart, Frederick and like minded people just keep on doing the same thing for the past 30 years. When will you learn that it does not work to have just a few people pay for the cost of all. When will you apply the cost to everything including commercial and industrial capital improvment costs/ When will you not call Proffers a Capital Improvment Tax so the Federal Government will pay for these roads and schools and such and give that back to the citizens as a refund on their taxes ? Oh helping the people is not on your agenda nor is it on that of Stewart and the BOCS !!!!!
The BOCS allows the development industry to increase supply however much they want; that supply exceeds the demand; and prices tumble.
The Constitution of the US and of Virginia is what allows any person to build on their property as dictated by the laws of each county and city. Of course you do not believe that the Laws should rule you want a lynch mob mentality when only what you think is right!!!!!!!! I have no doubt that if you owned a piece of land and the government told you you could not build because they did not want any more houses you would be madder then a wet hen. Of course you can lie and say it would make you happy to be told that.
You nor Stewart or Frederick donot want to solve the payment for Capital Improvments which could be done very easily.
The developers and their accomplices on the BOCS rubbed salt in our wounds by requiring us not only to pay higher taxes to support public services for the occupants of the new homes, but also to subsidize their cheap, illegal alien labor through their use of public services, free medical care at our hospitals, and overcrowding in our schools.
NO one has made the money off of houseing TAX FREE as have the home owners. The first town houses in Ashdale sold for the low to mid 20’s when built and now sell for over 200K. No one paid a penny on that profit it was all tax free. They sure got the benefit of all the increases in amenities in the county which helped increse the value. At least the people who sell their land pay Fed and State Taxes on that profit and the builders pay taxes on all the profit you claim they make but that is how it should be.
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The developers’ representatives on the BOCS have been trying their best to open the Rural Crescent to residential development, exemplified by recent actions such as Fireside Wesleyan Church. That episode was made even more detestable by the pro-developer supervisors exploiting well-meaning church people to achieve their agenda. Witness also their success in reducing land targeted for parks. An acre open to the public as a park is an acre a developer can’t build on.
If you want an acre of land for a park then you buy it. how would you like it if I just said I want have of your property to be used for the public but I will not pay you for it just take it?
How would you like it if the government passed a zoning that only allowed you one parking space on your property and none in the street and took away the value of your land? You would be PISSED but it seems that is OK when it happened to the people in the Rual Cresent.
It was a great statement you said as listed below to bad you do not know your history and are willing to repeat it over and over and never get it right.
Remember that there is no new history, only repetition of what we’ve seen before.
people will car pool?! what country do you think you live in?
PWC and the cities are in deep trouble. You chose to pin it on the illegals. Well, guess what: they didn’t get you in trouble. You did. Tood bad they had to be driven out because of your failure to properly analyze the situation. They are human beings, families, kids. I used to think like you guys, but i got to know them and I got wiser and more humane. Try it. You’d feel better and their lives wouldn’t be ruined.
Pat.Herve said on 15 Mar 2008 at 7:21 am:
They should just let bears sterns go out of business. I do not understand why the feds are bailing them out.
They had to be bailed because their failure would shake the very foundation of our financial system:
Wall Street Domino Theory
By JENNY ANDERSON and VIKAS BAJAJ
Published: March 15, 2008
The Federal Reserve’s unusual decision to provide emergency assistance to Bear Stearns underscores a long-building concern that one failure could spread across the financial system.
The sudden collapse of a major player could not only shake client confidence in the entire system, but also make it difficult for sound institutions to conduct business as usual.
“In a trading firm, trust is everything,” said Richard Sylla, a financial historian at New York University. “The person at the other end of the phone or the trading screen has to believe that you will make good on any deal that you make.”
“You get to where people can’t trade with each other,” said James L. Melcher, president of Balestra Capital, a hedge fund based in New York. “If the Fed hadn’t acted this morning and Bear did default on its obligations, then that could have triggered a very widespread panic and potentially a collapse of the financial system.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/15/business/15risk.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
http://www.svherald.com/articles/2008/03/15/news/doc47db75d0ed18d754346832.txt
“Feds accuse local man of hiring illegal workers”
Here is an example of the “aiding and abetting” that occurs:
“Rubio is alleged to have contacted an alien who worked for the company while the Form I-9 inspection was being conducted, with the intent to tip off the alien that an inspection was under way. Rubio allegedly told the alien to ‘get out of town’ along with the rest of the group, otherwise the group will likely be arrested by immigration agents due to the alien’s lack of status in the U.S.,” the release says.”
JPMorgan is now buying Bear Stearns for $2 a share. It closed on thursday at 57, closed on Friday at 34 - now, before the markets even open on Monday, JPM is offering $2 a share - now, that is putting them out of business.
We will never have a perfect model of risk
By Alan Greenspan
Published: March 16 2008 18:25 | Last updated: March 16 2008 18:25
The current financial crisis in the US is likely to be judged in retrospect as the most wrenching since the end of the second world war. It will end eventually when home prices stabilise and with them the value of equity in homes supporting troubled mortgage securities.
Home price stabilisation will restore much-needed clarity to the marketplace because losses will be realised rather than prospective. The major source of contagion will be removed. Financial institutions will then recapitalise or go out of business. Trust in the solvency of remaining counterparties will be gradually restored and issuance of loans and securities will slowly return to normal. Although inventories of vacant single-family homes – those belonging to builders and investors – have recently peaked, until liquidation of these inventories proceeds in earnest, the level at which home prices will stabilise remains problematic.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/edbdbcf6-f360-11dc-b6bc-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Home builders will always need inventory, and though the housing market in PWC is in great turmoil, it doesn’t mean that land in PWC isn’t ripe in their eye for future planning and that includes the rural crescent.
We don’t want irresponsible investors to pick up foreclosed property and rent to illegals, or to allow further deterioration of existing properties to occur, but at the same time we must also keep our eye fixed on greedy HOMEBUILDERS like Granville-Smith and other NVBIA members now and in the future.
We don’t need any more development in NOVA. Period!
Patriot…I disagree. Prince William places the burden of financing government on the shoulders of it’s residential property owners it’s a problem. I am forced to seek services outside the county all the time. I agree that we don’t need residential development (though Manassas Next is claiming Manassas welcomes home builders).
We need to sell off the land at Innovation, provide more opportunity to work in the county, less commuters on the hwy, and see a big increase in commercial tax dollars.
I don’t want to pay more in taxes..my home value dropped and I shouldn’t have to pay the same as I did 2 years ago when my home’s value was substantially greater.