Jeff Frederick Leads John Hagar For RPV Chairman
By Greg L | 19 March 2008 | RPV | 26 Comments
Red Virginia is reporting that Delegate Jeff Frederick may have an early delegate lead in the race to become the next Chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia, with 1037 pledged delegates while incumbent John Hagar’s total lags at 907. Of note, Jeff Frederick’s home turf of Prince William County will not select delegates to the state convention until March 29th, which suggests this lead should continue to grow.
Jeff’s credentials extend well beyond his rescuing the 52nd District from the prospect of being represented by Hilda Barg in the House of Delegates. He’s taken a District that Democrats had always considered a potential powerbase and turned it into a conservative stronghold. Jeff’s demonstrated ability to reach out to voters of all persuasions while remaining true to his conservative principles, and his solid record of success makes him a truly compelling choice for RPV Chairman. He knows how to run solid campaigns, build a dedicated and active volunteer base, and win and retain Districts — all skills that seem in somewhat short supply lately within RPV. He also knows how to take the battle to Governor Kaine to the point that Kaine singles Jeff Frederick out as one of the key legislators who have prevented his tax increase schemes from being enacted into law.
The deadline to register as a delegate and support Jeff Frederick for Prince William County residents is March 29th. Delegate forms and information about the convention can be obtained here. If you want to support Bob Marshall for U.S. Senate, or state central representatives for the 1st, 10th or 11th Congressional Districts, you’ll find information about that there as well.
Don’t sit these conventions and mass meetings out. The choices made are far too significant to let them be made by default.
UPDATE: Mason Conservative chimes in with the same conclusion. I’d not be surprised at all if a big chunk of the Republican blogosphere joins in for Jeff Frederick as well.
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26 Comments
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I don’t believe it for a second, this is a neat little PR move in an attempt to get his campaign off the ground. First, there is NO way possible to even get an estimation of delegates. Second, I have never even heard of this supposed blog. Many if not most outside of PWC have never even heard of Frederick. Also, remember, there is NO such thing as committed delegates in Virginia. You go to the convention and vote, period.
With Hager support from all the congressional district chairs, this is nothing more than wishful thinking. In the end, it will be a complete blowout for Hager, with at least a 20 point margin or even more. Republican’s like Hager typically do not want to hurt each other, especially another elected official, but I do believe Hager can probably bring out some big cannons if necessary and this will not even be a race. I could be wrong but this is what I suspect.
“With Hager support from all the congressional district chairs…”
Watch out buddy - many of those district chairs won’t be chairs in a month or so. Many are being challenged by Frederick supporters and are likely to lose. Others, facing challenges by Frederick folks, simply bowed out of their re-elections. Jeff is lining up unit chair after unit chair in support of his campaign: truly a grassroots effort.
Anon 5:23 is obviously someone stuck in their basement with no real idea of what is going on around the state. Frederick’s support is spreading like wildfire.
Go JEFF Go!
Valley, thats just wishful thinking, plain and simple. We will see how many stick with Frederick if Hager needs to pull out out the cannons. I am not convinced he has much support right now to begin with. The “stuck in the basement” comment is sort of funny but simply not true. As I said before, most outside of PWC have never heard of Frederick. If you want a chair that skiped a vote on HB 3202 than magically re-appeared right after the vote than fine, go for Frederick. On convention day Hager probably wins by a 3-1 margin, at least.
I’ve seen the you tube of Frederick ducking out on that vote. A stunning display of leadership. If a guy like Hager is defeated by Mr. AWOL then the Republican Party is headed for marginalization.
Provide the link that shows Jeff skipping a vote on HB 3202. It doesn’t exist.
Oh contraire, video or not its widely known by most in the GA that Frederick took a walk and then re-appeared. I wonder how many of his colleagues in the GA are supporting him?????
“I wonder how many of his colleagues in the GA are supporting him?”
About 25 so far, rumor is, including moderates and conservatives, and even the Majority Leader.
Richmond, only time will tell but I firmly believe thats alot of nonsense. Fredericks people can start rumors but we will see. As I said, we will see how much support he can actually get at the convention. My feeling is that he will lose by about 3:1, especially if Hager decides to actually campaign and reveal the truth. I know plenty of Republicans that don’t want this race to get nasty because Frederick does hold a marginal district and that is important but believe me the potential definitely exists.
This may be a dumb question, but if Jeff Frederick does become RPV Chairman, can he still remain a Delegate? Thanks.
John Hager is a nice guy, but there is no demand for nice guys in this political season we are in.
No, nothing would prevent this. Jeff doesn’t run for positions he isn’t qualified for.
These numbers are somewhat misleading. One person doesn’t equal one vote at the State Convention; it’s all about delegate voting strength in the individual units. Thus, if Jeff is very strong in a unit with few votes and many delegates, those votes are divided among the delegates.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WpPdLb69-qk
Sir, this post is beneath you and your level of knowledge of the political process.
The blog you cite is merely parroting a Frederick for Chairman email sent yesterday morning. The numbers are transparently made up … most delegates never attended a meeting, never heard of Frederick and don’t even know there’s a Chairman’s race — much less have chosen a candidate. To be blunt, Frederick’s numbers are lies.
He may win or may not. I am not supporting him, or Hager … and in fact have reason to be pretty sure there will be an alternative, conservative pro-life candidate in the race long before the convention.
Time will tell, but crap numbers like this should be exploded everytime some hotshot politico uses them whether it is Boyd Marcus, Ray Allen or Jeff Frederick, IMO.
Ciao.
I agree. Marcus and friends has been pushing this stuff with Gilmore as well because Bob Marshall scares them to death. The key to remember in Virginia, is that NO DELEGATES are committed until they actually vote. This is NOT the RNC convention were all delegates are pledged. You do not pledge at your mass meeting to any binding candidate. You pledge to be a delegate of the party.
I cannot state this MORE forcefully.
For all we know, Federick could be winning but to push a random number makes him look amateurish and desperate. Fredericks name ID outside of PWC is next to zero. He has plenty of time to fix this but potentially pushing phoney numbers is not a good start. Hager is the heavy favorite but I would not be suprised to see an alternate type candidate emerge either since Frederick has some problems that Hager could bring up if he wanted and some people don’t like Hager because he used to work with Mark Warner. I still think in the end, Hager will win by a large margin.
I agree that there is probably no 100% solid basis for these numbers, but “lies”? “Phoney” numbers? I think a candidate who has a full time staff, and has been at one function or another in nearly every unit in the state, probably has at least some good faith basis to estimate the relative vote counts, especially when they have been organizing a very large proportion of the people who have been showing up to these unit meetings. It’s one thing to point out that these numbers are soft and subject to change, and that there is no objective basis on which to adjudge their accuracy, but it’s a different thing altogether to allege outright dishonesty. For that I think you owe your fellow Republicans a bit more support.
In terms of name recognition outside PWC, it’s true that average citizens haven’t heard of him, but I don’t think it’s at all the case that the GOP activist base (the people who will actually attend the convention) are unfamiliar with him. Anyone who saw him at the 1st District special nominating convention could tell that a whole lot of people outside his district knew who he was and what he stood for.
As far as Hager being some sort of establishment steamroller who will win by a large margin, I have two words in response: Jack Rollison. Rollison was another old bull of the state GOP, just like Hager. Today, Rollison is chiefly known for having lost in spectacular fashion to the upstart Frederick in a Republican primary where, as here, the energetic and motivated grass roots turned out against the ossified and insular party establishment.
So, I guess what I’m trying to say is, I believe it when Frederick says he’s winning.
Dear aptly named “bull”,
When numbers that are impossible to know or even accurately estimate are proclaimed it is a lie. And in campaigns, it is an old trick for the gullible.
You are either gullible … or you are Jeff Frederick.
Ciao
Bull,
A phoney numbers are phoney numbers. Gilmore’s people are pushing the same exact crap right now. They must take other GOP grassroots voters are real dopes. I have to assume these are phoney because there are NO committed delegates. I have to say I respectfully disagree about name ID. With all due respect, Frederick is a noncommodity out in the Beach area, the valley, and central va. NO one outside of a few committee heads have even heard of the guy. That is why these numbers are essentially bunk. If I polled committee people in my district right now his name ID would be 10% tops. Hager as a former statewide office holder would be near 95%.
I am NOT saying Frederick cannot win but he needs to quit with the deceptive politics and making up phoney supposed delegates. Losing campaigns and campaigns on the rope (see Gilmore) use these type of tactics because they are scared of losing control. We certainly don’t need a chair who uses these tactics. Hager probably has plenty of “stuff” to go after Frederick but he probably has too much class for inter party warfare. No one and I mean no one can actually believe Frederick actually has exact numbers at this point. In a convention, its all about showing up.
Did Jeff come out with any numbers, or was it a blogger, Red Virginia, comes to mind? Was this a ploy to make Jeff look ridiculous? Some doesn’t smell right.
Something doesn’t smell right indeed…and it could be the possibility that the Dems could control every political decision in the coming years. Personally, I and many others I have talked to, feel that a change in direction is needed. Frederick is interesting for now, but we are still in the early stages. The real question is whether Hager will be around long enough, or even capable, to right the ship (capable question applies to Frederick as well).
Answer to question about where numbers came from: They came in a mass email from the Frederick campaign (which I received, though not a supporter of his — nor Hager, for that matter). The blog then posted them and this blog then covered that blog.
Clear?
Ciao
In answer to the question yesterday-yes Jeff can hold his seat if he’s the Chairman, there’s nothing that says that you have to resign your current seat to be chairman. But there in lies the problem for Frederick. He has run as an “independent/moderate” candidate each year, telling his moderate-if not pretty liberal leaning constituents that he doesn’t follow party line.
If you are the chairman of the REPUBLICAN party-don’t you think a lot of the Dems in his district that tend to vote for him are going to be a little pissed off come 2009 when he starts blasting his “independent” mail and tv ads everywhere?
Frederick’s in a very unique place and it will be interesting to see how it pans out…do his colleagues in the GA support him because they want to see him lose in 2009 which means that they can be rid of him, or do they support Hager so that Frederick will lose the chairman seat and then he’ll hold onto his Delegate seat come 2009?
Or maybe Jeff doesn’t care about his seat anymore because he’s planning on running for statewide office and this all a ploy to get his name out there-win or lose.
I’ve said this before-Frederick’s a “good” conservative most of the time and does tend to vote how he thinks his voters want him to, but he’s got a big ego and he gets ahead of himself a lot and that might be his final downfall…pride will kill everyone if they let it.
No doubt Frederick has a big ego, but I am not sure of any elected official that does not have a healthy ego. In defense of Frederick, thats not necessarily a bad thing. A healthy ego becomes a problem for all politicians when it turns to arrogence and Frederick has straddled this line carefully for a while now. Its just something all politicians need to watch.
Fredericks probably looking for the “next big thing” since he has almost certainly figured out its only a matter of time he will lose the seat. I cannot blame him for this and its mostly due to demographic changes rather than his record. One also has to wonder what will happen to his seat when re-districting happens? His “independent” streak is nice when it pertains to his own district but not so nice when trying to save your seat during re-districting.
For the above reasons, I certainly cannot and will not fault him for running for RPV chair. We have heard rumors over the past months, Federick for Chair, Lt. Gov., Congress, what next? His best bet on a permanent job might be to eventually move into Colgan’s district and try to get that seat after retirement. He could get a much higher profile in which to run for a big office one day.
The Frederick campaign has sent around another email earlier today, this time claiming that by “our count” they expect 3,779 delegate votes, versus 3200 votes expected for Hager. They’ve also listed 26 GA members from around the state who have publicly endorsed Frederick. The email also references takeovers of local units and victory over Hager takeover attempts at others (though no details provided, this presumably means takeover of chairmanship by pro-Frederick people).
You can keep dismissing this all as “phoney” numbers or “bull,” but if you do, I’m afraid you’re missing the boat. Denial is not going to change the fact that Frederick is catching a wave of grass roots discontent that some of you plainly do not see coming.
I will be in attendance at the Fredericksburg GOP mass meeting tonight and will report on what I see and hear. Maybe I’m wrong, but I expect to find independent evidence that supports the proposition that Hager is getting overwhelmed by frustrated people like me. And no, in response to the person who apparently styles himself as some sort of sophisticated Euro-type (”Ciao!”), I am not Jeff Frederick. I’m a conservative lawyer who commutes every day into DC…I do not work in politics at all.
I’m not sure if anyone is still reading this thread, but as promised above, I now post my observations of the Fredericksburg Mass Meeting last night.
There were about 20 people in attendance, which is a pretty good number for Fredericksburg. After normal business, candidates or their representatives were allowed to speak. Jeff Frederick was there, and spoke to a very enthusiastic reception. No one spoke on behalf of Chairman Hager. While no straw poll was taken, my sense is that the vast majority of those in attendance intend to vote for Frederick. I get this impression not just by judging the reactions to the talk he gave, but also from the buzz surrounding him after the meeting, when most of those attending took the time to let him know they were supporting him. I couldn’t tell if the Frederick campaign has any systematic way to track which delegates they think will support him.
I don’t offer this example as necessarily representative of what is happening in every other unit, but it does illustrate what I’ve said before about the grass roots thirsting for energetic leadership where, in recent years, there has been little more than residual inertia and stagnation.