There were about 20 people in attendance, which is a pretty good number for Fredericksburg. After normal business, candidates or their representatives were allowed to speak. Jeff Frederick was there, and spoke to a very enthusiastic reception. No one spoke on behalf of Chairman Hager. While no straw poll was taken, my sense is that the vast majority of those in attendance intend to vote for Frederick. I get this impression not just by judging the reactions to the talk he gave, but also from the buzz surrounding him after the meeting, when most of those attending took the time to let him know they were supporting him. I couldn’t tell if the Frederick campaign has any systematic way to track which delegates they think will support him.

I don’t offer this example as necessarily representative of what is happening in every other unit, but it does illustrate what I’ve said before about the grass roots thirsting for energetic leadership where, in recent years, there has been little more than residual inertia and stagnation.

You can keep dismissing this all as “phoney” numbers or “bull,” but if you do, I’m afraid you’re missing the boat. Denial is not going to change the fact that Frederick is catching a wave of grass roots discontent that some of you plainly do not see coming.

I will be in attendance at the Fredericksburg GOP mass meeting tonight and will report on what I see and hear. Maybe I’m wrong, but I expect to find independent evidence that supports the proposition that Hager is getting overwhelmed by frustrated people like me. And no, in response to the person who apparently styles himself as some sort of sophisticated Euro-type (”Ciao!”), I am not Jeff Frederick. I’m a conservative lawyer who commutes every day into DC…I do not work in politics at all.

Fredericks probably looking for the “next big thing” since he has almost certainly figured out its only a matter of time he will lose the seat. I cannot blame him for this and its mostly due to demographic changes rather than his record. One also has to wonder what will happen to his seat when re-districting happens? His “independent” streak is nice when it pertains to his own district but not so nice when trying to save your seat during re-districting.

For the above reasons, I certainly cannot and will not fault him for running for RPV chair. We have heard rumors over the past months, Federick for Chair, Lt. Gov., Congress, what next? His best bet on a permanent job might be to eventually move into Colgan’s district and try to get that seat after retirement. He could get a much higher profile in which to run for a big office one day.

If you are the chairman of the REPUBLICAN party-don’t you think a lot of the Dems in his district that tend to vote for him are going to be a little pissed off come 2009 when he starts blasting his “independent” mail and tv ads everywhere?

Frederick’s in a very unique place and it will be interesting to see how it pans out…do his colleagues in the GA support him because they want to see him lose in 2009 which means that they can be rid of him, or do they support Hager so that Frederick will lose the chairman seat and then he’ll hold onto his Delegate seat come 2009?

Or maybe Jeff doesn’t care about his seat anymore because he’s planning on running for statewide office and this all a ploy to get his name out there-win or lose.

I’ve said this before-Frederick’s a “good” conservative most of the time and does tend to vote how he thinks his voters want him to, but he’s got a big ego and he gets ahead of himself a lot and that might be his final downfall…pride will kill everyone if they let it.

Clear?

Ciao

A phoney numbers are phoney numbers. Gilmore’s people are pushing the same exact crap right now. They must take other GOP grassroots voters are real dopes. I have to assume these are phoney because there are NO committed delegates. I have to say I respectfully disagree about name ID. With all due respect, Frederick is a noncommodity out in the Beach area, the valley, and central va. NO one outside of a few committee heads have even heard of the guy. That is why these numbers are essentially bunk. If I polled committee people in my district right now his name ID would be 10% tops. Hager as a former statewide office holder would be near 95%.

I am NOT saying Frederick cannot win but he needs to quit with the deceptive politics and making up phoney supposed delegates. Losing campaigns and campaigns on the rope (see Gilmore) use these type of tactics because they are scared of losing control. We certainly don’t need a chair who uses these tactics. Hager probably has plenty of “stuff” to go after Frederick but he probably has too much class for inter party warfare. No one and I mean no one can actually believe Frederick actually has exact numbers at this point. In a convention, its all about showing up.

When numbers that are impossible to know or even accurately estimate are proclaimed it is a lie. And in campaigns, it is an old trick for the gullible.

You are either gullible … or you are Jeff Frederick.

Ciao

In terms of name recognition outside PWC, it’s true that average citizens haven’t heard of him, but I don’t think it’s at all the case that the GOP activist base (the people who will actually attend the convention) are unfamiliar with him. Anyone who saw him at the 1st District special nominating convention could tell that a whole lot of people outside his district knew who he was and what he stood for.

As far as Hager being some sort of establishment steamroller who will win by a large margin, I have two words in response: Jack Rollison. Rollison was another old bull of the state GOP, just like Hager. Today, Rollison is chiefly known for having lost in spectacular fashion to the upstart Frederick in a Republican primary where, as here, the energetic and motivated grass roots turned out against the ossified and insular party establishment.

So, I guess what I’m trying to say is, I believe it when Frederick says he’s winning.

For all we know, Federick could be winning but to push a random number makes him look amateurish and desperate. Fredericks name ID outside of PWC is next to zero. He has plenty of time to fix this but potentially pushing phoney numbers is not a good start. Hager is the heavy favorite but I would not be suprised to see an alternate type candidate emerge either since Frederick has some problems that Hager could bring up if he wanted and some people don’t like Hager because he used to work with Mark Warner. I still think in the end, Hager will win by a large margin.

The blog you cite is merely parroting a Frederick for Chairman email sent yesterday morning. The numbers are transparently made up … most delegates never attended a meeting, never heard of Frederick and don’t even know there’s a Chairman’s race — much less have chosen a candidate. To be blunt, Frederick’s numbers are lies.

He may win or may not. I am not supporting him, or Hager … and in fact have reason to be pretty sure there will be an alternative, conservative pro-life candidate in the race long before the convention.

Time will tell, but crap numbers like this should be exploded everytime some hotshot politico uses them whether it is Boyd Marcus, Ray Allen or Jeff Frederick, IMO.

Ciao.

About 25 so far, rumor is, including moderates and conservatives, and even the Majority Leader.