Bob Marshall Tops Poll
By Greg L | 22 April 2008 | Virginia Politics, US Senate | 7 Comments
The campaign of Jim Gilmore has sent out another dubious press release claiming that they have commitments from a majority of delegates who will attend the RPV convention in Richmond in a few weeks. Since these pronouncements fly directly in the face of what many in the Virginia blogosphere say they observed at recent county and city conventions across Virginia, it was time to start a poll of readers to see whether there was any basis for Gilmore’s triumphant claims, or whether this was just another case of Dick Legget providing false information to the media. Although polls here are not scientific, and the sample size still remains somewhat small, if there was some deep devotion to the Gilmore campaign out there that I’ve been missing, I seem to still be missing it.
As of this morning, 53% of respondents are saying that they believe electing Bob Marshall to the United States Senate is the best way to improve that troubled body. The second most popular choice, at 24%, is to blow it up in an airstrike. Clearly the frustration I feel with the actions of the Senate is widely shared. In third place is Mark Warner at 12%, and Jim Gilmore brings up the rear with a paltry 11%. Somehow, if Jim Gilmore has this thing all wrapped up, he’s doing a wonderful job of keeping most of his supporters incredibly quiet.
When Jim Gilmore can’t beat Mark Warner among BVBL readers, he is in deep trouble. I doubt it’s because readers have anything against Jim Gilmore in particular, as I haven’t heard much of anything in the way of criticism of him or his policies, but I also haven’t heard anything about him that sounds like excitement or enthusiasm. Jim Gilmore seems to be little more than a face slapped on a generic Republican candidate, a perception that seems to have followed him since his failed bid for the Republican nomination for President. While being a “generic candidate” in a general election can potentially work, we’ve seen it fail miserably in party nomination contests in Virginia.
An army of passionate supporters is key to winning party nomination contests, and including a humorous option in this poll helps to gauge that passion. Someone who might otherwise pick Jim Gilmore, but cast aside that choice because it feels more rewarding for them to say that stealth bombers should rain down JDAMs on the Senate chambers, aren’t what you’d call excited about Jim Gilmore. They aren’t going to be talking to their friends about his candidacy, phonebanking on his behalf, or doing any of those other critically important things that help a candidate win. In a convention, where a relatively small group of Republican political junkies make the decision, passion is nearly everything. Jim Gilmore seems to have none of it. That doesn’t make him a bad person, it just makes him a rather underwhelming candidate with a poor chance to achieve victory.
Bob Marshall’s 53% to 11% margin over Gilmore in this poll demonstrates that the passion for his candidacy is definitely there. We’ve seen that passion show up in a number of jurisdictions in Virginia, including those with the largest delegate contingents in the state, and Marshall continues to do things that feed right into that passion. Leading those attending the Shad Planking in the Lord’s Prayer after watching Jim Gilmore somewhat violate the bi-partisan armistice that characterizes this event shows that Bob Marshall can easily and comfortably connect with delegates, while Gilmore continues to struggle with this. Marshall does the unexpected because he is consistently so unconventional, and those unexpected events always seem to impress Republican voters.
Meanwhile, Gilmore is left to confront the opinion of many conservatives who seem to think that blowing up the Senate would be preferable to electing him as a means of rescuing this body from the disdain they feel for it. That can’t help.
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7 Comments
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I agree. I was doubtful of online polls at first but they were vindicated in the end when Ron Paul swept the Republican nomination!
The poll I put up at PWConservative came out similar,
Bob Marshall 36 (60%)
Mark Warner 17 (28%)
Jim Gilmore 7 (11%)
Oh come on. A smart guy like you should be well aware that readers of a given blog and people who serve as delegates to a state convention are two radically different groups of people. Some of the delegates are septegenarians who don’t even own computers. You may be right about the lack of passion for Gilmore, but to say that the results of your poll indicate that he hasn’t secured enough convention delegates is ludicrous.
This poll is going to be just about as accurate as those Drudge polls that the Ron Paul supporters bombed. Didn’t you notice they stopped occurring after awhile?
Nothing to see here, just another desperate attempt…
Only the old and the stupid will be backing Gilmore, and that explains why you never hear from them on the blogs; they don’t understand those new fangled computer gizmos…
I think RP4Ever lit ya up there bud
JTB:
Can you put together a paragraph that actually explains your positions on why you do not like Gov. Gilmore rather than throwing around insults… ala most Democrat/ic bloggers?
Hope Bob gets the nomination so I can observe Mark Warner kicking his rear in November. Greg, are you going to start a pool in October, I’ll give my #s now: Warner 62% Gilmore 38%; Warner 67% Marshall 33%.