WashPo’s Fuzzy Math
By Greg L | 13 May 2008 | Prince William County | 38 Comments
Go figure that the Washington Post would misunderstand the budgetary savings that are rapidly accruing to Prince William County taxpayers as a result of the Rule of Law Resolution. In the Post’s latest effort to argue that the rule of law is a bad thing if that means that lawbreakers which belong to a preferred racial or ethnic group will have any reasonable chance of being held to account for their unlawful activity, the Post is arguing that the decrease in ESOL enrollments in Prince William County isn’t actually saving taxpayers any money. Next fiscal year, when the illegal aliens who have left the county don’t show up as students in the school system, does the Post think that we’re still going to be burdened with the cost of educating these unenrolled students?
But Prince William school officials say that the departure of nearly 760 students this school year from the English for Speakers of Other Languages program has not brought a financial windfall to the school system, contrary to an estimate of $6 million in savings cited by Prince William Board of County Supervisors Chairman Corey A. Stewart (R-At Large).
What the Post has ignored here is that discussions regarding cost savings were held in the context of budget discussions for fiscal 2009. No one has asserted that the county can cut personnel or program costs mid-term for ESOL educational programs, but the Post is trying very hard to imply that these budgetary savings are supposed to show up immediately. Nice trick. In a long-term strategy to address taxpayer support for the benefits that illegal aliens provide, if savings don’t instantly materialize, the strategy is labeled a failure? Ridiculous. Too bad the Post is not applying the same standard to neighboring school districts and claiming that the increased costs those jurisdictions will have to bear are similarly non-existent.
The 760 ESOL students that have left the county school system so far this year aren’t going to be enrolled in the county school system next year. In addition to this 5.7% decrease in mid-year ESOL enrollments, it is very likely that efforts to crack down on illegal immigration in the county will further reduce ESOL enrollments next school year. With somewhere in the neighborhood of 4,000 illegal aliens attending Prince William County Schools, if those students return home or relocate to other jurisdictions, the savings to Prince William County taxpayers could amount to twenty two million dollars, not counting budget contributions from the state. By tempering the consistent increase in overall student enrollments, the savings in capital costs that result from not having to build schools, purchase buses, and other capital expenses that are then avoided could amount to over four hundred million dollars. If more than a third of the 12,645 current ESOL enrollments can be attributed to illegal aliens, which is quite possible, these savings will be considerably higher.
Will any substantial part of these savings immediately appear? Of course not. Is state funding being withheld from Prince William County as a result of presumed illegal aliens leaving the school system mid-year? That’s probably not true either, since state funding levels are locked-in on September 30th of each year and it’s not the policy of the Virginia Department of Education to start trying to “claw back” funding commitments to county school systems mid-year. Once the numbers for a school system at the end of September are set, that’s the amount of money the school system gets for the entire year. The Post quotes David Cline as saying that somehow the state may withold two million dollars from PWCPS because of dropping ESOL enrollments, but no one I’ve talked to can figure out how this actually could be happening.
In fiscal 2009, if we have fewer illegal aliens enrolled in the school system, many of whom would be entitled to participate in expensive ESOL programs, it is going to save Prince William County taxpayers tens of millions of dollars. On top of these savings, reduced costs in public benefits and services and other county programs will save taxpayers even more. Just because budget cycles haven’t yet caught up with reality doesn’t at all mean that these cost savings won’t materialize, especially when we’re already seeing demand dropping for these services. The facts demonstrate that potential savings are accruing, and that must be driving illegal alien apologists at the Washington Post absolutely nuts.
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My favorite part of the WashPo article:
“Fairfax School Board members said Thursday they welcomed new students who arrive from the neighboring county. School Board member Kaye Kory (Mason) said some schools in her district have added dozens of new students in the past few months, many from Prince William, which she attributes in part to that county’s immigration policies. Kory said she expects there will be fewer teachers and instructional assistants next year to help those students because money is scarce.
But she said: “It’s not like I can send Prince William a bill.” ”
A bill for what? According to the article, the cost is negligible??? What is it WashPo? Are they costly or aren’t they???
“But the increase in Fairfax’s ESOL population coincides with a rise in enrollment that officials attribute mainly to a slow housing market that is limiting migration out of the county.”
Huh? Anyone care to explain that one to me? Especially in light of the admitted migration into Ffx county from PWC??
I wouldn’t try to decipher the twisted logic of a liberal rag like the Post. The important thing is WE know our county is better off without illegal aliens in it. WE know our schools have more money to spend on educational opportunities for the children of LEGAL residents. WE know our quality of life is higher without illegal aliens in our midst. WE know what we’ve done in this county was right. WE know that that we must continue with the same and other policies that will discourage ILLEGAL aliens from coming here, encourage the ones who are already here to leave, and, by doing so, encourage LEGAL immigrants and residents to come here to enjoy and be a part of our fine community.
Take a look at this report on assimilation.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/shared/news/stories/2008/05/ASSIMILATE13_PBP.html
Mando is completely correct.
I always knew the WaPo twisted things, but this story bordered on blatant lies. The state does not ‘take back’ the money we got last October for those ESOL students. Now of course, next year they won’t get that funding for those particular students, but it cost the county taxpayers FAR MORE to educate ESOL students than the state gives the schools so the NET effect is that we save money!
Secondly, although the students left from different schools which means we didn’t let any teachers go in April due to the loss, it just means the schools have to hire fewer teachers next year. ESOL programs are consolidated by elementary schools if there aren’t enough students in one school. So if school A had 20 ESOL students and 8 left; and school B had 18 ESOL students and 10 left, then they could combine the remaining 20 ESOL students into one class at school A, thus saving the county from hiring an additional teacher for school B. Teachers won’t be let go because even with the decrease in enrollment, PWCS still has overall growth so they’ll always need new teachers next year.
When my 5 kids grow up and move out supporting themselves (I can dream!) , won’t I save money after they move out? According to the Post, I would probably lose money because I wouldn’t get the tax deduction anymore from having them at home. This is completely backwards logic (or lack of logic)
How low will they stoop to twist the story into something completely not true because it is what they want to hear? I think they had the story they wanted to tell and they went and quote shopped until they could find enough to twist.
The Post needs to hire some new reporters.
No, the state doesn’t take back the money but the money follows the kids. If Juan leaves PWC and goes to Arlington County, the state money does go to Arlington to help educate Juan. kapeesh?
I would listen to Dave Cline. He has been around a long time and has absolutely no reason to lie. leave the budgetting to the experts. Money talks and we know what walks. Corey Stewart should just not comment on budget issues he obviously does not understand.
Many people, if you read the various newspaper blogs, think that the savings has already happened and that PWC is sitting on a windfall. Regardless of what is said, they will not be convinced otherwise. Obviously, fewer children to educate generally costs less in the long run. However, there are many variables involved and capital expenditures and staffing expenditures aren’t immediate gains. Beware of unintended consequences.
The money follows the kids? And just how is that, Dolph? Given that state aid funding levels are established at the end of September state-wide, I just don’t see a mechanism for state aid to be readjusted after that cutoff. If you’ve got more info here, by all means fill us in.
I think it’s quite possible that Cline was misquoted here. Given what we’ve seen from the MSM, I’m not going to automatically accept something as weak, unqualified, and unsupported with additional details as a statement saying that he thinks that state aid will be cut by two million this year.
I loved the last sentence that quotes someone from Fairfax County schools as saying, “It’s not like we can send Prince William the bill!”
Good for Corey for standing up against the fuzzy math numbers that were provided by PWC school administrators.
The part that confuses me is that the information provided is inconsistent with what I am hearing from a friend who teaches at Garfield. According to her we have eliminated a number of ESOL teaching jobs at Garfield H.S.
I don’t care if the Illegal Invaders leaving cost us MORE money. It’s worth it.
Adios, mis amigos.
Desperation is a stinky cologne and the Wash Rag is wearing a gallon of it. Connect this story with the useless series on the health care received by illegals who are in the ICE detention system and what do you get? Wheedling (sp?) and whining, spinning and misdirecting. Jail/Prison health care is abyssmal nationwide. Perhaps the illegal alien detainees should be deported immediately to their native lands to get the care that they need. The initiatives are working in PWC. The WashPo knows it. Hence the sobbing. So does the rest of the world, including Europe, who are struggling with illegal aliens. It won’t be long before FFX and Arlexico start turning illegals away.
“If Juan leaves PWC and goes to Arlington County, the state money does go to Arlington to help educate Juan. kapeesh?”
Dolph, you are missing the point. The state only provides a portion of the money to educate “Juan”. The rest comes out of county taxpayer’s pockets. PWC already got the $3000 (estimate) from the state in October for “Juan”. You and I came up with the rest of the $12,000 it costs to educate him. The state doesn’t take away that $3000, PWC already got it and spent it.
Next year, the state will send the money for “Juan” to Arlington, and Arlington taxpayers will have to come up with the rest of the funding for his education.
So YES, PWC loses that $3000, but also we don’t have to come up with the remaining $9,000.
Dave Cline didn’t lie, he stated that we would not receive funding for those students. He was correct in what he said. The Post however twisted what he said into trying to make people believe the county wouldn’t save that much.
The fact, the county taxpayers pay more than half of the cost of educating every ESOL child. So for each child who leaves we save at least half if not more. Like ANY bureaucracy, the schools certainly don’t want to shrink so they are not going to go out of their way to advertise the savings.
“While the numbers of ESOL students have dropped by about 800—resulting in a reduction of teachers by about 40, Johns said, in answer to a question from Stirrup—the overall pupil population is still on the upswing, albeit at a slower rate.” Milt Johns in a Potomac News article
Isn’t 40 teachers quite a bit a savings? That means we have to hire 40 less teachers for next year (and now that the number is 70+, it is more like 43 teachers.
And the Post didn’t mention that or if they did, they would have twisted it into another lie: HEADLINE: PWC fires 43 teachers! Dave Cline, of PWC county schools says “we will need 43 fewer teachers than 2007/8″ Once again, the statement is correct but the headline and resulting story is incorrect.
Well Dolph, surprising as it might seem, there are many of us “dummies” out here who see the illegal alien, school funding, and budget issues just as Corey does.
…and ya know something, even if losing ESOL students were to cost us MORE MONEY, I’d support that tax increase for THAT purpose, without a whimper. Why? …because those who came here without invitation or authority (some of us call ‘em “illegal aliens”) shouldn’t be here in the first place. ESOL funds could be used far more productively, helping those who are Americans and wish to become even BETTER Americans!
“It’s not like we can send Prince William the bill!” - quote from fairfax county schools.
Why would prince william get the bill? Last I checked we didn’t drag anybody from their home of origin and ask them to live in Prince William?! therefore if they leave and go to fairfax, the “bill” should be sent to their home of origin, or even better, paid by the very people using the extra services!
You all can think what you want and pat each other on the back. You see victory. I see a financially gutted school system.
I suppose our values are different. I have always placed quality public education in high regard. I know many people here do not. More’s the shame.
Keep on back slapping and keep asking yourselves why you no longer have a world class school system.
Meanwhile, here is some reading that might shed some light on the state’s responsibility. I will be the first person to say I don’t know all the ins and outs of state funding. It is very complex.
http://www.doe.virginia.gov/VDOE/suptsmemos/2007/inf221a.pdf
http://www.doe.virginia.gov/VDOE/suptsmemos/2007/inf221.html
No Dolph, no “back-slapping” for a “world class school system”…it’s the back-slappers who CLAIM that we have that now — we don’t, and for several reasons — and if you think we do, just check the international test scores.
The issue is, however, how will increased spending to support illegal aliens/children of illegal aliens help us achieve that “world class” status that is so widely claimed?
How much does it cost to educate each ESOL student in PWC?
Freedom,
I never said that increased spending to support illegal aliens would help us achieve world class status. That is really a stetch and a terrible spin.
My concern is over the financial status of the county and the county school board. I have not changed on this concern. It has been pretty much a constant theme. I see a lot of voo doo math justifying this and saying we are paying for that…when in fact, that isn’t really how it is working out.
Municpal funding and educational funding are complex issues and really should be left to experts. I have never claimed to be one.
800 less ESOL students does not equal 40 less teachers, like Johns said.
The propaganda is outrageous. He’s basically taken 800 students divided by 20 students per class and come up with 40 teachers.
Those 800 students are spread out over 80 schools.
And there is not a dollar-to-dollar correlation between cost to educate a student and the decrease in the number of students.
For example, 600 less students at a cost of $10000 to educate each one is NOT a savings of 6 million dollars. Remember, those 600 or 800 students are spread out over 80+ schools.
Dolph, you “…an expert,” nor am I. Obviously, as a taxpayer of the county, I too am concerned about its financial status. The real issue here though, as I see it, is “what is the impact upon illegal aliens upon that ‘financial status’”? My point is this: If the financial impact is positive, GREAT!! If the financial impact is negative, I’ll pay — I just want the flippin’ law enforced!
anon, work at it….work at it hard!!! Regardless, you will not justify our retention of those ESOL students that are here illegally.
The part that really bothers me though is that you would even try…:( How can this be??
Freedom,
Obviously everyone isn’t as generous and you and I are. I am willing to pay higher taxes for more services.
I am concerned that we are losing 85 county jobs, that our neighborhood services agents have to go on grass patrol and even then won’t be able to stay on top of it, and that over all as a county, we just look like we are on the cheap.
I am concerned that we have lost so much money out of the school budget. Prince William has been working on the cheap for a few years now anyway (definitely not ‘world class’ to work on the cheap) as far as salaries go. They have not kept pace with surrounding jurisdictions. They have gone on the cheap with replacing teachers who retire or quit also. Positions have been abolished where they are most needed. The list goes on.
I keep waiting for Dr. Walts to offer to not accept his big raise this year. If only he would say “I will take a 4.8% raise, just like the teachers are getting, and not one penny more,” I would have all sorts of new respect for the guy, but I am not going to hold my breath.
Freedom,
You are so thick headed that it saddens me. I certainly hope you are not homeschooling your children, because you clearly lack the capacity.
You do, however, have quite a gift for reading words that aren’t written - and aren’t even implied - in a post. Was my post written in magic characters only visible to you? Absolutely nothing I wrote indicates in the SLIGHTEST that I want to KEEP ESOL students.
I want the illegals gone, in a bad way. They have destroyed my community. And continue to do so to this day. Route 1 looks like a little border town.
But if you think there is a dollar-to-dollar correlation between the cost to educate a student (any student) and the loss of a few hundred of those students, as has been propagated lately, then you are a fool.
There is indeed a significant cost savings. And there is a big savings in other areas too, like the “free” health care at the hospitals for faux emergencies.
All that said, 600 less ESOL students at $10,000 per student does not equal a 6 million dollar savings.
If you need me to spell out some of the fixed costs for you, I’d be happy to, if you aren’t capable of figuring it out for yourself. A large chunk of the cost to educate a child is a fixed cost that only changes with DRAMATIC enrollment changes. Sorry, but 600 kids is not dramatic.
It is not 600 kids anymore, the schools have released that it has already gone up to 745 and they are expecting another big decrease over the summer. People who didn’t move now but will move to start the school year in Arlington and Fairfax.
The kids were not as spread out as you would think. They were concentrated in certain schools. Since ESOL programs at the elementary level can be combined (and they make changes every year), then it will make a difference. In particular the two elementary schools I am involved with are both losing one ESOL class at the minimum.
Where did the ESOL decrease numbers come from? I missed watching the BOCS meeting last week and this week if there was one. Is that where all the numbers are coming from?
I still see 20 to 25 day laborers in the morning at the Coverstone 7-11 around 8am so I really can’t see any difference there, and it looks like one of the vacant flophouses is having some activity in it but they are real careful about parking on the street and walking in one at a time.
Maybe I should call zoning and see how many flee into the night the day I submit my complaint.
Dolph said, “I keep waiting for Dr. Walts to offer to not accept his big raise this year. If only he would say “I will take a 4.8% raise, just like the teachers are getting, and not one penny more,” I would have all sorts of new respect for the guy, but I am not going to hold my breath.”
Well Dolph, just think what could be done for our teachers AND our education system if we were to able to reward teachers based upon performance. Salary increase can be a wonderful incentive to improve performance…but according to the school board…not for our teachers. Regardless of skill, we’ll give them the same salary increase.
There comes a time when insistence upon the same increase for all, simply means that you don’t have enough money to give and thereby retain quality teachers…quality moves on, where the money is.
smiling and kindly offering anon a blood-pressure pill.
Freedom,
Until there is a fair way to assess teacher performance, merit pay will never fly. Teaching is an art, not a science.
———————————————————————————
I heard today that many kids showed up around November who were not in the count. Their parents were afraid to send them to school. I asked how many and was told about 20%. (whatever that means) There are many elementary schools that have lots and lots of esol students. The money from the state isn’t all that much anyway. Plus there are rumors.
I just think the jury is out on numbers. Money follows kids and often is reimbursable. Too complicated for me to figure out. I wouldn’t be cheering and counting the money yet though. It isn’t that simple.
Well then Dolph, believe it or not, there are those who should no longer be practicing the “art”….and there are those who should be richly rewarded. As with most things, it will work only when someone decides that it should work….and as for “…a fair way to assess…” it will be no more nor less fair than the administrator. Surely the one on the short end of the merit pay spectrum will know for sure that it’s “not fair.”
Way too many excuses as to why it “…just won’t work”…but it does work…and it rewards excellence instead of mediocrity and retains quality teachers while leading non-performers toward a not so artsy and less lucrative career.
However, it’s not easy, so maybe we need to forget about the skill with which our teachers perform….give ‘em all the same pay raise, and kinda like leave it alone, huh?
yea, something like that, Freedom.
There are mechanisms to remove teachers who need removing. There are ways to recognize those who excel. Creating friction and a situation that doesn’t foster sharing and collaboration is not a good situation in teaching.
I agree, there are some who should not be practicing the art. However, setting up those said teachers with a classroom full of kids needing remediation and who don’t speak English and comparing that teacher to one who has everyone on grade level and coming from a 2 parent upper middle class home? I have news for you if you don’t think that wouldn’t happen.
The merit pay idea has been tossed around since the baby boomers came of age. In a perfect world, it would work. The world of school just isn’t that perfect world. Unfortunately, often the least productive in the classroom end up being the administrators. The expression ‘Kicked ‘em upstairs’ was probably invented in some school system. And besides, if I may ask, why do you care how they are paid?
Prince William will never be able to attract and maintain quality teachers until it pays competitively. It hasn’t for several years. It will continue take those who weren’t hired byLoudon, Fairfax, Manassas Park and City of Manassas.
Dolph:
“I heard today that many kids showed up around November who were not in the count. Their parents were afraid to send them to school. I asked how many and was told about 20%. ”
That is absolutely incorrect. There were very few students enrolled in November. Please email Dave Cline at the schools and ask for specifics before you repeat things like this. He is great about responding to requests and should be helpful. BTW, if 20% extra kids had shown in November, PWCS would have been mass chaos.
“Money follows kids and often is reimbursable.”
The state and fed money doesn’t come and go every day depending on where the child is. There are specific times of the year when enrollments are calculated. That is why parents receive those forms about being military, fed gov. employees, etc. The schools have to depend on parents to fill out those forms in a timely and correct fashion in order for the school to apply for and receive funding.
Each ESOL child costs between $2700 and $ 3100 (depending on what grade) to educate ON TOP of what it costs to educate a child with no special needs.
Of that $2700-$3100, the schools receive about $800 from the state and about $130 from the feds…these amounts include ALL the title fundings and special ed fundings. That is IT, we don’t get one dime more.
That means the remaining $1770 comes from PWC Taxpayers!
I would rather lose $800 & $130 and not have to pay the additional $1770, than to spend $1770 just to get $930.
On top of that you can add the regular amount to educate a child and what the state provides versus what the county has to pay. The taxpayers always pay way over half of that amount.
I understand economies of scale but it works in reverse as well. If 1 child leaves 1 school it doesn’t have a big effect because you still need a principal, teacher and a building, but if 20 children leave 1 school, it starts to have an effect. If only 1000 ESOL elementary students left and they were completely evenly spread out over 53 elementary schools, we would need one less teacher at each school and one less classroom at each school.
Anon,
I seriously doubt that you know the exact numbers for the school system nor do I. Since I was speaking in generalities and stated that it was hearsay. I can do without the admonitions. Remember, it is only 20% of the esol population being discussed. My information came from an itinerate teacher who goes to elementary schools with low sol scores. I suppose he/she is as entitled to an opinion as you or I.
Dave Cline and other county employees have better things to do than sit around answering questions for people who don’t really have a need to know. The jury is still out on the savings. Regardless of how much bs is slung, I will take the wait and see approach.
“I seriously doubt that you know the exact numbers for the school system nor do I.”
Actually my numbers of state funding, ESOL costs, etc are accurate because I got them from Dave Cline. So he won’t have to waste time answering your questions, he can simply forward you the same info he sent me!
anon,
And you are aware that some of those figures change daily in a system the size of Prince William?
Now what is it you want me to check on?
Dolph said, “… And besides, if I may ask, why do you care how they are paid? Prince William will never be able to attract and maintain quality teachers until it pays competitively. It hasn’t for several years. It will continue take those who weren’t hired byLoudon, Fairfax, Manassas Park and City of Manassas.”
In response to your question, I care how they are paid simply because we can not afford to (nor should we) pay “top dollar” to EVERY teacher…but we CAN afford to pay top dollar to the best teachers. I fully support competitive pay; I do NOT support rewarding mediocrity equally with excellence.
Dolph, there is absolutely NO WAY that industry…regardless of how artsy or creative that industry might be…can remain competitive if they reward all employees equally. “Pay for Performance” is not new and it has been used widely. Is it easy to implement? No. Is it fun to explain why one person’s salary increase is lower? No. Is it always fair? No. My contention is that rewarding top performers equally with middle-of-the-road performers is not fair either.
In PWC, we have a Superintendent of Schools ($239K/yr) and one Deputy Superintendent and eight Assistant Superintendents (average $150K/year). If they can’t make that system work, without “creating friction and a situation that doesn’t foster sharing and collaboration,” it’s time we find someone who can.
A teacher who cannot accept, who creates friction, who doesn’t share and doesn’t collaborate would be ripe for a 0% increase next year…the increase they could have received would be better applied toward rewarding and retaining quality.
Easy? No. Fun? No. Effective? Definitely.
Nice plan. What you haven’t explained is how you are going to take a system that already has difficulty attracting and retaining qualified teachers in certain areas and implement a pay for performance program.
Currently teachers and other school board employees receive raises according to seniority and COLA. That seems to be working most places in the country. Attempts to implement other types of ‘reward’ systems have not fared well.
A severe teacher shortage is on the horizon. It is already being felt in math, science, speech therapy, social studies, and yes, ESOL, and all special education. As baby boomers continue to retire, there are going to be fewer and fewer teachers to replace and those replacements will not be the same calibur who left.
Current plans that have worked in some areas are paying those with the critical shortage area endorsements more money. The old standard excuses for paying teachers miniumum salaries no longer work. And for the record, lousy teachers should be fired. The question is now though, who is replacing them. Last time I checked, substutue teachers were holding down the fort. The rigors of NCLB simply do not allow for non-certified teachers to be ‘finishing out the year,’ especially when the start date for the sub is November.
No, I haven’t explained how to do it, Dolph….PWC doesn’t have a Superintendent and nine Deputy/Assistant Superintendents to create the daily lunch menu or plan the third grade “holiday” program.
Obviously, as you know better than most, the labor unions and the socialists perpetuate mediocrity…they never have in the past, nor will they ever in the future have any use for competition, the high achiever, or the “fast burner.”
Labor unions and socialists? Since *I* know better than most? What on earth are you speaking of? What on earth do labor unions and socialists have to do with our discussion or with me?
Sniff sniff do I detect an enemy of public education?
If I were going to question the workings of PWC , I would start with why the PWC school board hired a superintendent who needed to bring 3 additional associate superintendents with him. The first 3 of those associate supers listed on the website came from Greece NY with the good superintendent. I bet they have a pretty big price tag also.
What happened to those people who used to head up those various categories? I am amazed that the school board ever approved bringing those people on board. Those imported people were just high ticket items.
Rather than suggesting a plan that has been bantered about for the past 50 years that is highly unmanageable in a school system you might want to determine if it works so well why aren’t all the private schools on such a pay for performance plan? I believe you will find that most districts are far more comfortable paying for seniority. Teachers can make additional money by assuming more responsibilities like sponsoring clubs, coaching, and running after school programs like night school, Saturday school etc.
Welcome to the world of capitalism, Dolph, the private schools ARE!!! …and of course, public school districts ARE “… far more comfortable paying for seniority. Teachers can make additional money by assuming more responsibilities like sponsoring clubs, coaching, and running after school programs like night school, Saturday school etc.” …and teaching skills/commitment be damned.
It’s not always easy or comfortable to achieve.