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Gilmore Wins

By Greg L | 31 May 2008 | RPV, US Senate | 25 Comments

I had to leave early before the results for Senate were announced, but Jim Gilmore eked out a very narrow victory at the Republican Convention today, Bearing Drift reports.  Based on the sticker count I saw, Jeff Frederick should cruise to a pretty substantial victory.

Congratulations to Jim Gilmore for his victory, and Bob Marshall for mounting a truly impressive campaign.  This was a good day for conservatives.

Of note, the Prince William Delegation was provided with only three rows of seating in the back of the floor, which is about the same amount of seating reserved for Colonial Heights.  I wonder if Prince William had not been the source of today’s challengers whether adequate seating would have been provided.



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25 Comments

  1. Big Dog said on 31 May 2008 at 4:37 pm:
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    Compared to Mark Warner, Jim Gilmore was a
    lousy governor. Warner will need to suffer a major
    “macaca moment” for Gilmore to have any real
    chance in November.

  2. Not Jim McGreevey said on 31 May 2008 at 4:53 pm:
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    Warner’s damage has already been self-inflicted. He knows what he did. The rest of the world will, too, before Election Day.

  3. ladyxx said on 31 May 2008 at 4:57 pm:
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    How sad. Maybe Marshal should run as an independent. ;-)

  4. Krutis said on 31 May 2008 at 6:26 pm:
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    Warner knows what he did, you say. The rest of the world (THE WORLD!) will, too, before Election Day.

    What did he do? I’m with Big Dog on this one.

    Gilmore didn’t make himself very well liked during his term, while Warner came out in good shape.

  5. tired of messes said on 31 May 2008 at 6:41 pm:
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    Your right about the seating to the rear for P.W. They have done this for years and especially when we have candidates.

    To bad, back or front or in the middle the votes still count.

  6. 999 said on 31 May 2008 at 6:45 pm:
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    Krutis said on 31 May 2008 at 6:26 pm:
    Warner knows what he did, you say. The rest of the world (THE WORLD!) will, too, before Election Day.

    What did he do? I’m with Big Dog on this one.

    M. Warner gave Virginians the largest tax increase in the commonwealth’s history when it wasn’t needed. He also stated he would never raise our taxes.

  7. Vigilant1 said on 31 May 2008 at 6:47 pm:
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    ladyxx said on 31 May 2008 at 4:57 pm:
    How sad. Maybe Marshal should run as an independent.

    May not be a bad idea. Look what it did for Joe Lieberman.

  8. AWCheney said on 31 May 2008 at 7:00 pm:
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    adyxx said on 31 May 2008 at 4:57 pm:
    “How sad. Maybe Marshal should run as an independent.”

    That is the same logic which cost us the Senate election in 1994 when Republican Marshall Coleman entered the race as an Independent, with the support of John Warner. Splitting the Republican vote just doesn’t work, under the best of conditions…particularly at a time when the Virginia Republican Party is trying to heal the enormous rifts that already exist.

  9. James Young said on 31 May 2008 at 8:07 pm:
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    That idiocy is what switched our support to Frederick, but I find it difficult to believe that it was intentional, Greg. From what I observed, it was a general incompetence. And that alone was enough reason to vote for Jeff. At least, it became the reason for us.

  10. J. Tyler Ballance said on 31 May 2008 at 8:20 pm:
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    The evangelicals, and new Party members that were attracted to the GOP by the Ron Paul campaign, provided a substantial boost to Bob Marshall’s race. The Paulistinians should have been welcomed into their local GOP Committees long ago, but many were at first, shunned by the Party leadership. Hopefully, now with their proven performance, Paulistinians will be accepted and encouraged to fully engage in Party activities.

    The other major part of the success equation was due to the the exemplary performance of emerging superstar campaign manager, Steve Waters. Outspent nearly twenty-to-one, Steve was able to cobble together key Party factions with the help of Bob’s sons and a team of fired-up volunteers.

    Of course, Bob’s secret weapon is his wife, Cathy Marshall. Her affable manner and polished, yet friendly acceptance of every citizen, motivated every supporter to put forth a 110% effort.

    The Bob Marshall team shall be back!

  11. Chris said on 31 May 2008 at 8:23 pm:
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    Yeah Greg, about the seating . . . they put ALL of Fairfax County together with the 11th and from what friends of mine told me was they had to add nearly six or seven rows to fit everyone. I don’t think it was a slight to PWC, it was simply not having enough chairs are being too dumb to count how many people where coming.

  12. Greg L said on 31 May 2008 at 8:34 pm:
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    I thought it was rather bizarre to arbitrarily assign counties that are split between CD’s into one of them. I live in the 10th District, but my vote was tallied in the 11th. Were this not a party convention, I’d think I’d have a Fourteenth Amendment case, but the party can do what it wants under the law.

    And that would include holding registration open longer today to allow Gilmore’s folks to phonebank in Henrico and Richmond counties. Perfectly permissible, but only because it’s a party convention.

  13. i was there said on 31 May 2008 at 8:42 pm:
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    We needed more folks there to vote for Bob! I am sick for losing by 50 or so votes. Church going folk, homeschoolers, and anti-illegal immigration people please come away from the ball fields and other events for a few hours and help us elect solid candidates!

  14. Krutis said on 31 May 2008 at 8:43 pm:
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    999 - How uncouth - to raise taxes when promised not to. Has never happened until Mark Warner did it, huh?

    Do you really think the world cares? Maybe you have your own little world; a globe with only Virginia on it?

  15. Linda B said on 31 May 2008 at 9:00 pm:
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    The districts were seated in numerical order (first in the front through 11th in the back) … I mean, except … what’s this?!? The seventh is right up front. Isn’t that Hager’s district? And the district whose votes were reported late and were just barely enough to give Gilmore the edge?

    1,2,3,7,4,5,6,8,9,10,11 … a funny way of counting … but apropos of the day’s events, I’d say. Marshall was robbed. There should have been a recount.

  16. Lars W said on 31 May 2008 at 9:27 pm:
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    The Prince William seating “slap in the face” was just one of the many ill advised, petty moves made by the RPV staff doing whatever it took to hold onto their jobs.

    Jeff Frederick won with such a substantial margin (better than 60-40), that it was decided to have Hager make a motion for acclamation instead of have the results announced to the convention.

    Way to go Jeff (and Amy) on running such a focused, hard-fought, and HONORABLE campaign.

    Jeff has at least 3 members of his campaign staff that would be outstanding candidates for Executive Director of RPV.

  17. James Young said on 31 May 2008 at 9:55 pm:
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    It’s not “arbitrary,” Greg. It’s the difference between knowing how things operate at a State Convention and under the Party Plan, and how you think they might operate.

    Voting strength is calculated by unit (i.e., counties and cities) as a function of the total Republican voting strength in the preceding presidential and gubernatorial elections, and therefore varies from unit to unit (and Convention to Convention). Delegates serve a representative function, as representatives of Republican voters in their units. You’ll remember that you were elected as a delegate to the State Convention from Prince William County, NOT at the Tenth District Convention. Congressional District don’t send delegates to the State Convention; individual units do.

    Moreover, each unit must vote all of its votes (the “whole-vote” rule). Therefore, each individual’s vote within the unit is calculated as a function of those who show up. For instance, if a county has 100 delegate votes, and ten people from the unit show up (it doesn’t matter how many are elected to go), each person’s vote is worth 10 delegate votes. On the other hand, if 50 people from the unit attend, each person’s vote is worth only 2 delegate votes (it can be subdivided to a maximum of 1/5 of a vote per person). Thus, while about PWC had 408 delegate votes (if memory serves), approximately 300 people showing up and voting on a ballot means that each person’s was worth about 1.33 delegate votes . Now, a county like Caroline County (I think it’s in western Virginia) had about 50-60 delegate votes, but I was told that only two people from that unit attended; hence, each person’s vote was worth about 25-30 delegate votes.

    Additionally, the value of each person’s vote can change from ballot to ballot. For instance, if fewer people voted on the second ballot (for RPV Chairman) — and I suppose that fewer did, as you and perhaps others left — then the value of each individual’s vote in the unit increased. I don’t know what the difference in the number of delegates voting was, but interestingly, Jeff won one more delegate vote than Bob did in Prince William County (11th District Chairman Becky Stoeckel showed me her tally sheet, but I was only interesting in the delegate votes (the only number that matters in the tally), not the raw number voting).

    Someone speculated to me that Hager’s fear of Bob’s strength may have been the reason why two separate ballots were conducted, rather than one, as efficiency would suggestion. The theory apparently was that he hoped that those primarily interesting in Marshall’s candidacy, and presumed to be Frederick supporters, as well, would leave after the ballot for the Republican nomination for Senate. Don’t know if it’s true, but it seems plausible.

    In short, that one or those two people from Caroline County had enormous power to alter the outcome, because of weighted voting and the “whole-vote” rule. I’m told that both people voted for Gilmore; a shift of even one would have made the margin razor-thin, and may well have altered the outcome. Bob may well be kicking himself over that one, if he didn’t campaign there.

    Now, as for where units are seated on the floor, it’s fairly arbitrary, but doesn’t alter the outcome. Past practice — followed today — is to seat units among two or more Congressional Districts (like Fairfax and PWC) with the Congressional District in which a majority of the unit lies, and have the District Chairmen (who almost always attend, unlike some unit Chairmen) report the weighted votes. In the case of both PWC and Fairfax, that is the Eleventh Congressional District. That is why we were seated with the Eleventh District.

    The alternative is to have each unit report their votes individually, which would make the process even more unwieldy and lengthy than it already is.

  18. Interested Bystander said on 31 May 2008 at 10:40 pm:
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    Caroline County in the western part of the state? You must not have driven to the convention down I-95…you would have gone right through Caroline. It’s between Spotsylvania and Hanover.

    Congratulations to Jeff, and amen to Bob running again. (And I agree entirely about Cathy - she rocks!)

  19. Lauren Yoder said on 31 May 2008 at 10:40 pm:
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    I am so disapointed that Marshall lost today. Now I guess I have untell Nov. to deside if I will vote for Gilmore. Gilmore’s lack of respect for Marshall makes me think that it would be best if Warner won so we can get rid of Gilmore forever.

  20. James Young said on 31 May 2008 at 11:24 pm:
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    “IB,” I’m not sure of the county. I think that’s the name I remember, but I could easily be wrong. In any case, it’s a rather typical occurrence that units from the western end of the state have fewer delegates show up in Richmond and hence, their delegates have relatively greater power.

  21. Eric Martin said on 31 May 2008 at 11:49 pm:
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    I was both shocked and disappointed that Marshall lost. The decibel level and sign count was significantly in his favor. 66 delegate votes — just 3-7 people depending on the county and weight– could have pulled it off for Bob. Just think- ONE CAR of you and your family (those who didn’t come) would have made the difference…

    I have many pics if you’d like some, here’s a re-cap;
    http://gobobgo.wordpress.com/2008/05/31/gilmore-wins-va-gop-senate-convention-attendance-is-everything-folks/#comments

  22. Groveton said on 1 Jun 2008 at 12:41 pm:
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    In order to understand the depth of Warner’s tax hike con job you have to understand how monies are distributed by the all powerful General Assembly. Here is an excellent report on the actual impact of Warner’s idiocy:

    http://www.forwardfairfax.com/papers/withdrawals.html

    Some key points from the paper:

    “However, many localities cut both the tax rate and education. In fact, 49 of 136 school divisions, nearly 40 percent, saw their own per-pupil contribution for educating their own children reduced. To do that, the local Board of Supervisors used the large increases in state aid made possible as a result of higher taxes on Northern Virginia.”.

    Later in the paper ….

    “This was not the first time localities had used increased state funds generated by Northern Virginia to lower their own local support.

    The same thing had happened during the administration of Governor Gerald Baliles when many localities drastically reduced their local support for education as state aid increased. It was an action that led to creation of a “maintenance of effort” clause when Governor James Gilmore signed a K-12 education increase into law to ensure that localities did not use increased state aid to reduce their local support.

    But neither Warner nor the General Assembly proposed such a clause in 2004. Nor did any member of the General Assembly propose such a clause on either the Senate or House floors.”.

    And the complicit local politicians …

    “Virginia citizens have a right to expect that legislators elected to serve them in Richmond will work to represent them in key budget and tax battles. Yet no Northern Virginia legislator from Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church City, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, or Prince William County stepped forward to try to correct the imbalance inherent in the 2004 tax increase.”

    The Warner lovers will say that this is just rich Northern Virginia paying its fair share. Forgetting the fact that this is not the lie that was told at the time, as always with Warner, the facts tell a different story -

    You should also look in the appendix to the paper to see the localities that benefitted from Warner’s con job. You’ll see Henrico County (located outside Richmond).

    Prince William County - per capita income: $26,641
    Henrico County - per capita income: $26,410

    Of course, these income figures do not reflect the lower cost of living in Henrico County.

    One can only imagine the residents of Henrico County looking toward Prince William County and saying, “Thanks, suckers”.

    Meanwhile, PWC’s state legislators joined their compatriots across NoVA in standing slack jawed and glassy eyed while Warner bought downstate votes with our money.

  23. Groveton said on 1 Jun 2008 at 12:50 pm:
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    Sorry, I should have cited the per capita income figures. They are from Wikipedia.

  24. 999 said on 1 Jun 2008 at 6:51 pm:
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    Krutis said on 31 May 2008 at 6:26 pm:
    Warner knows what he did, you say. The rest of the world (THE WORLD!) will, too, before Election Day.

    What did he do?

    Suggest you read your own posts before you fly off the handle. You asked a question and it was answered. Sounds like you forgot your medication or took an overdose.

  25. Bryanna said on 3 Jun 2008 at 9:18 pm:
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    As a delegate for Marshall, I believe he did the right thing by not asking for a recount.

    The numbers were close, and the bizarre seating arrangement didn’t provide many of the 10th and 11th Delegation with total confidence that votes were calculated without the possibility of unintentional, human error.

    We will never know if the three ballot boxes were correctly weighted and counted, but I applaud Bob Marshall for walking away. The man has class, and he put the party first.

    It’s important that all Marshall delegates support Gilmore. We can’t afford to risk losing John Warner’s U.S. Senate seat to a Democrat.

    A moment of silence for George Allen, please…

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