Prince William Outperforms Again
By Greg L | 12 June 2008 | Local Economy | 36 Comments
The local residential real estate market continued to heat up in May, with the number of sales in Prince William County and Manassas leaping 69% over May of 2007 according to MRIS. This makes four back-to-back months of increasing sales, and the fourth straight month where Prince William has outperformed all other jurisdictions in Northern Virginia. Here’s the regional breakdown:
Arlington: -26%
Alexandria: -9%
Fairfax: +0.5%
Loudoun: +12%
Prince William and Manassas: +69%
(source: MRIS)
This boom is particularly concentrated in areas that had previously seen substantial problems with residential overcrowding and (still) vacant properties. In zip code 20109, sales jumped 187%, in zip code 20111 sales jumped 182%. Over in Woodbridge, zip codes 22191 and 22193 both saw increases of 120%. As the quality of life in these areas continues to improve, it is driving significant interest from buyers looking to take advantage of affordable pricing and the revitalization of the community.
Prices continue to decrease, which indicates that there still is an oversupply of properties on the market, but new listings are starting to slip below the number of pending contracts which should stabilize prices in the near future. Whether the reported decrease in prices reflects a market where lower-value properties are the ones that are selling, or whether there’s an across the board markdown isn’t entirely clear, but what is clear is that the excess supply in the market is abating. With supply and demand coming more in line, this will have a positive effect on prices.
So much for the doom-and-gloom crowd’s warnings that efforts to improve the quality of life in our county would result in an economic disaster. Just how many more months of Prince William County outperforming the regional real estate market will it take before they acknowledge that their predictions were utterly wrong?
A report for April can be found here.
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36 Comments
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Apparently, our “efforts to improve the quality of life in our county” resulted in economic disaster for some of those who were profitting from slave labor and the illegal invasion of our homeland. I have no sympathy for them.
What about Manassas Park?
What % has MP gone up?
I can tell you my Town home was 320-350k in 2006 and they now list for 160-190K and not moving
I think we have the largest drop in VA
Can someone give me the % dercease for MP as well cuase I am down 50%?
When you’re at the bottom, there’s no place to go but up.
The source I use for zipcode level data doesn’t seem to have any residential sales data for zip code 20113 for the past six months. I doubt it’s a case of there being no sales, so I assume there’s a hole in the data collection.
NVAR lumps Manassas and Manassas Park into the Prince William County data, so there’s no data there, either.
The inventory of homes on the market increased in March and April in percentages greater than Manassas, and more than in Prince William County, where the inventory was relatively flat, according to VirginiaMLS.com. The percentage of available to active properties is about 80%, which tells me there is some market activity in the park, and that’s not entirely out of character for the area. From what I can tell, the park lags Manassas City, which itself lags Prince William County a bit. By how much, it’s hard to say.
Funny how that whole supply/price/demand thing works.
“The source I use for zipcode level data doesn’t seem to have any residential sales data for zip code 20113 for the past six months.”
That appears to be a post office box zipcode, did you mean 20111?
The houses are still vacant on my street. I wish some of these new legal home owners would show up here. Still, this is good news for PWC as a whole.
It is about time too. Areas seem to be getting a lot cleaner and who wouldn’t want to live in a clean place, because the cleaner it is, the safer it is.
On another note, during the Manassas City train festival this past weekend, a large fire truck was parked in front of that asinine sign for most of the time. Hooray!! Wish someone would permanently park a big moving van there until that sign is gone.
20111 is the zip code for all of Manassas Park, but also the Yorkshire & Buckhall areas of Prince William County. If stats by zip code, MP is lumped in there. So:
“in zip code 20111 sales jumped 182%”
MP is right, 20113 is a PO Box…
I’m in Bristow and my neighbor across from me moved out a month ago, not 100% sure why since they never really spoke to us, and they have their SFH priced at only $330K…there are townhomes the next block over selling for $300-$315K. All I could get from a real estate agent showing the house to a nice couple was that the family “needed to leave.” They have had that house on-and-off the market for 3 years. I figured it must be a dump inside, but the agent I spoke to said it was nice, however, they still had a lot of their personal belongings in it.
Sure enough, last week when the owner was there to cut the lawn, I saw more than just a lawn mower in the garage. It still had their broken dog house, part of a bed set, a hutch for a china cabinet, and tons of other stuff. Made me wonder what else was left and where in the rest of the house. I keep hoping their lazy real estate agent will have an open house so that I can go through there…just because I’m nosey like that. I was able to determine from a foreclosure site, though, that this house is not a foreclosure, so hopefully that will ensure we get a regular family moving in there and not someone just trying to make a buck and renting to any old tenant.
To Wine Please
Who Cares?
My house would sell also if I slapped a $100k price tag on it.
What was that someone said about the last good news? It had to do with dead cat bounce.
I’m attending a house auction on Monday afternoon. It’s a great looking townhouse, starting bid $10,000. I doubt seriously that I’ll buy the place, which if it goes low enough I could literally put on my credit card. I think this is the primary reason there are sales–people will think of investing in a bad market if the price is low enough. To be honest, I don’t even know if I could rent the place–have you actually driven around Manassas and MP to see how many “For Rent” signs there are?
Driving around town, I see so many empty houses, many with foreclosure signs. I don’t know much about other parts of PWC, but things look pretty bleak here. My impression with Greg L. and most of the readers here is that this story of success is one you keep telling one another over and over again, when it’s pretty clear from the ever growing number of foreclosures and business failings, things are not all well in PWC. I also know that many readers here think this will be temporary, and in a year or two, people will move back in.
But consider this: last December I was talking to the PWC demographer, and he told me that since 2000, the population of PWC had increased by nearly 100,000 residents. He also said that the majority of those newcomers were foreign-born immigrants.
I think it’s safe to say that most of the folks who have left are also immigrants. But who do you think is going to move in now? Do you really believe that upper middle-class white folks are going to start streaming into the county? If so, then you’re engaging in much wishful thinking. PWC has always been attractive to the lower income resident, and with gasoline prices inching toward $5/gallon, I don’t think you’ll find many takers who want to move into neighborhoods that are obviously in decline so far out.
Of course, only time will tell, and I’m here for the long haul. But I think we all need to ask: would you have been so anxious to run out your immigrant neighbors, deflate already unstable home prices, create an atmosphere of hostility and fear and damage the county’s reputation if you thought it might be 4 or 6 years before the empty houses were inhabited again?
Sara said:
“But I think we all need to ask: would you have been so anxious to run out your immigrant neighbors, deflate already unstable home prices, create an atmosphere of hostility and fear and damage the county’s reputation if you thought it might be 4 or 6 years before the empty houses were inhabited again?”
Put the word “illegal” in front of immigrant neighbor. Anti is putting the fear and hostility into the immigrant community. I don’t want boarding houses in my neighborhood. Our reputation is just fine, thank you. People WANT to move here because they know we have the rule of law on our side.
So, to answer your question, in a word - YES!
Correction, MCR. Change the terminology to “illegal alien.” Referring to illegal aliens as “immigrants” degrades the heritage of all but a very few of us.
And yes, Sara, we would rather live among vacant, foreclosed houses and mow the lawns ourselves than have illegal aliens as neighbors.
Advocator -
You are correct, and I always use the term “illegal alien”….. can’t believe I even used the term immigrant. Thanks.
“It’s a great looking townhouse, starting bid $10,000. I doubt seriously that I’ll buy the place, which if it goes low enough I could literally put on my credit card.”
I really doubt that the house will go for anywhere near $10,000.
Two townhouses in Belmont Station in MP have recently sold for $150,000.
As for the rest of your comments, many of the foreclosed houses are the result of mortgage fraud.
On the radio today they said that PWC has the greatest decline in prices of about 30% while DC is the only market that has an increase in prices of about 6%. No matter what the reason these low and lower prices are determing what the value of your house is today and for a few years to come. PWC never has had a very high value to the rest of the Metro area and nothing is happening to change that perception.
Sara,
I don’t know where you got this notion that anyone intended to “run out immigrant neighbors”, but that is not the motivation of anyone I know. What folks wanted to do was get something done about absolutely rampant residential overcrowding, MS-13 gang activity and plenty of other unlawful behavior that was happening partly as a result of an influx of illegal aliens. By discouraging the unlawful presence of illegal aliens, neighborhoods that were under severe pressure, such as my own, have started to bounce back enormously.
It will take time for the glut of unoccupied single family residences to get bought up, but because we don’t have multiple flophouses on ever block, MS-13 graffiti, and frequent problems with criminal activity in these neighborhoods to the same degree we had before, these neighborhoods are attractive to buyers again. Nothing improves a residential community better than a good, safe neighborhood, and we’re seeing that once again.
I think there are plenty of people that want to live somewhere where the streets are safe, the community looks good, and the police aren’t rushing there every evening. As long as the neighborhood is safe and clean, I don’t care where the heck the folks came from, as long as they comply with the law and don’t make a nuisance of themselves. My neighbors don’t all look like me, and I couldn’t care less whether they do or not as long as they’re not harboring fifteen illegals and throwing trash out their windows into the side yard, for example.
There was a house that was on the auction block last weekend starting bid was $75,000. This is a well maintained single family house on ¼ acre lot two levels 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths.
I am waiting to see how much it sold for. We are fortunate that we only had 2 foreclosures on our street and we live in the 22191 zip code. We were shocked that there were not more on our street.
Believe me when my new neighbors move in I will be bringing them a basket of brownies a pitcher of lemonade and a list or a chat of expectations on how we maintain our neighborhood and how we help out a few of our seniors and special needs neighbors.
With new people moving in its time we roll out the old welcome wagon of years ago! If we just let people move in with out greeting our new neighbors and chatting with them for a few minutes we are dooming ourselves to repeat the past!
It’s not an anti immigrant thing. It’s an anti criminal invader thing.
The house across the street from me and the house next door to me were bought by immigrants who filled their homes with criminal invaders. They tore the place apart, had very loud parties that started at 11 PM and went on until 4 AM (when I would call the cops), used their yard as a toilet, drove across lawns, and got puking drunk in public. I did the happy dance when their homes were foreclosed.
The folks behind me were also immigrants. They were friendly, took excellent care of the place, and I was shocked and saddened when they couldn’t hold onto to their home.
The home next to me sold, again to Hispanic immigrants. They are friendly, quiet, and have been working hard to make the place a home to be proud of. They finally moved in this evening and I have never heard anyone move so quietly! The house is a bit on the small side, but they say that’s fine because there will only be three of them living there. I don’t know how it will be living next to them, but getting to know them as they have been working these past two weeks have been a joy! If things go as they have been, I will really like these new neighbors.
BTW, please notice how I refer to illegal aliens. The apologists say the tern “illegal alien” is too harsh, and refers to them as “undocumented workers”. I say “illegal alien” is too soft and inaccurate, and will henceforth call them what they are–”criminal invaders”.
PWC, the land of cheap housing. That’s been the reputation for at least 25 years and it looks as if it will continue. Too bad we don’t have many convenient parks or trails. That would be an amenity that would add to the quality of life. But, no this counties auto-centric built environment was designed by developers like Hylton and their allies like Jenkins and Barg to maximize their profit, not to create a place of lasting value. This lead to the devastation of our natural space and the use of cheap illegal labor. If we want a place worth caring about we will have to fix more than one problem. Then folks will value it, and it will have more value too.
Oh don’t even get me going on parks and trails. PWC/VDOT can’t even build a Parkway that is a “Parkway” nor does it know how to build intricate trails and paths in the woods let alone along major routes including RT1 and major portions of the PWC parkway.
They can’t even arrange for paths leading to the largest HOV lot in the county. People have to sloth through mud and the Parkway get to the Slug lines. People wonder why so many drive…… because there is not any safe alternative.
You can’t even hop a bus in PWC and get to Ft Belvoir or even the Springfield Metro.
errrrrrr
I am a currently Fairfax County renter that hopes to close, in the next week, on a single family home in PWC.
I could have bought in Fairfax, however PWC is on the right track to make my investment only go up.
Being able to work from home was a minor factor in my decision.
I hope your closing goes well, and if it does, welcome to PWC and we hope to see you at a meeting of Help Save Manassas.
Hey Wine Please…About your comment that the realtor was “lazy”. How do you figure? Because she cannot by law or her code of ethics tell you why your neighbor is selling? Or because your neighbor still has items in HIS house. A lot of times Open Houses are for people like you to walk through and be noisy which is a huge waste of time for the Realtor and none of your business ,unless you have a serious intention of purchasing the home.
Funny that because you want to know someone’s personal business that you call the Realtor lazy.
Just curious, where is your justification for this?
Dolph,
I agree with you , we are selling them yes, but amazingly cheap. Besides the cheap price tag there are also a lot of closing costs paid by the seller on a lot of these.
We are seeing multiple offers on a lot of houses throughout the county including Manassas Park and Manassas City. Houses are selling but right behind one sold is another one in our listing inventory (actually usually 2 or 3). Things look better in terms of sales but the prices are dropping and the volume of homes new to the market are continuing to increase right now.
Good news is that most of these homes are going to very excited first time homebuyers that can finally get out of renting.
AnonRE,
I am pleased to learn that first time homebuyers are taking advantage of the fire sale here in PWC. I would much rather see families buying than investors. We all know where things go once a neighborhood becomes mainly investor-owned.
You hit the nail on the head by suggesting that dropping prices and additional homes hitting the market be factored in to this equation. Simple number of houses sold per month is only the tip of the iceberg and certainly does not tell the entire story about what has happened to our community.
I, for one, do not feel that we have quite the rosy real estate picture as portrayed in this thread. ‘7000 foreclosures and rising’ doesn’t bode well anywhere.
Dolph and AnonRE
I just wanted to say it is refreshing to see an intelligent thread here for a change.
I would like to add that I believe that Manassas Park is going to be the LAST place that investors will look.
The simple reason is the tax rate is so much higher here than in PWC that investors would see their profits going to a tax bill in MP so for once I guess I am happy the tax rate is higher.
Really it is just a dumb consequence but if we have owners instead of renters as Dolph said this gives us a bit of a tighter knit community by attracting those that are thus invested in the community.
Also I would mention having the VRE here in MP may help at some point , with MP doing better as fuel costs rise and VRE access as a selling oint however I forsee the new construction behind the VRE and over at Park center reaping those benefits before any owners on Belmont station or Mosely and so forth.
Thanks
Dolph:
That might have been me warning about the dead cat bounce a few months ago. I’m betting that prices are still going to drop another 10% before the year is over. There are too many balloon mortgages scheduled to revert to the higher payments in the next two months, causing more foreclosures over the next six months, putting more houses on the market. I’m keeping my investment in a gold fund until I feel we’ve really hit bedrock, then I’ll snap up a couple of units in my neighborhood and rent them to real, boner fide legal residents who want to contribute something to this fine country.
Rick,
AnonRE is a wealth of information. Did you know in Manassas Park they require they utilities to be on when a property is listed? This burden falls on the realtor often.
Excellent point regarding the tax rate in the Park. Any idea where the Park ranks in the state with the RE tax rate? I believe the are very near the top of the list.
We’ve had a few new owners move in on my block.
AnonRE,
I’m to glad to see you are back. Would you mind eleborating on some of the hoops you have to jump through as a realtor in the Park?
Manassas Park has one of the highest tax rates in the state. (Probably number 1). The reason is that is do not have any commerical business compared to Manassas City/PWC/Fairfax/Loundon…etc. Plus it is small ~2.4 sq miles and does not have any multi-million dollars homes. I think the highest selling house is around $540,000.
The expansion of the VRE is key to bringing residents to PWC. I do not see any office buildings coming to the area anything soon. All the new buildings along 28 and 267 in Fairfax and Loundon are empty.
m,
I go to a great dentist in the office building behind the VRE in the Park. I think the are the sole occupants of the building. I understand the limited square mileage aspect. The City of Falls Church also has an outrageous tax rate too, but they’ve had a commercial base for years. FC probably ranks second only to the Park.
I think VRE will become more sought after as fuel prices continue to rise. Growing up here there was no public trasportion of any kind in PWC. VRE should be an attractive selling point for the area.
I can’t imagine there’s too many houses in the Park selling for $540K. I’m doubting the price you stated. I just think there are very few houses in the Park that would be worthy of such a price given the market now a days.
Yes I will later this evening when I finish work for the day.
“Did you know in Manassas Park they require they utilities to be on when a property is listed?”
How can they do that?
There’s more than a few properties listed in Manassas Park with missing electric meters.
If they do require the lights to be on, as someone who has spent the past two months looking at various foreclosures, it’s a great idea. There have been so many homes that you can’t get a good look at the basements and such because of the lack of power and lighting. If it is a foreclosure, the banks should be paying for the cost of keeping the electric on to be able to show the property. Of course, I have also learned that the banks want to do nothing more than unload the property, creating nothing but headaches for the listing agent and the buyers. But then again, the lending practices of these mortgage brokers and banks got us into this mess, so my expectations should be lower than they are…