The DPVA is now officially falling apart. House Homosexual Caucus leader Delegate Kris Amundson, who has been in office for nearly twenty years and a potential contender for House Majority Leader if the Democrats took over the Virginia House of Delegates this election has announced that she will not seek re-election in the 44th District. With a lackluster candidate at the top of the Democratic ticket who can’t provide huge financial support for House elections, the lustre seriously coming off Obama The Messiah, significant tensions between Northern Virginia Democrats and the House Minority Leader and a three way race, Kris Amundson decided to throw in the towel, even suggesting that Fairfax County is a difficult place to live in, and serve as an elected official.
Maybe she should have thought of that before supporting so many of the tax hikes that help make it so expensive.
Democrats will be able to put in a last-minute candidate for this seat, although having a newcomer in this race instead of Amundson will significantly improve Jay McConville’s chances, which were already looking pretty darned good. With the loss of the 44th District to a Republican, the chances for Democrats taking a majority in the House of Delegates shrink to mathematical improbabilities. McConville is a strong candidate with a lot of momentum at this point, and Democrats are already somewhat on the defensive in Fairfax County after a strong candidate recruitment effort by the FCRC that has left Democrats in the dust and set up some good election battles in places where Democrats would much rather not face opponents at all.
I find it awfully strange that Amundson waited until now to announce she wasn’t going to run. It’s too late for Democrats to select a candidate through a primary, it’s very late for a campaign to start getting up and running, and about the only Democrat with any visibility here is Scott Surovell, the same guy whose best comeback for McConville’s criticism of Amundson’s utter failure over nearly two decades to get a single transportation improvement in her District was that George Bush was a bad guy. The dems here are in a world of hurt, and not only has the FCDC dropped the ball here, but Little Dickie Cranwell the DPVA Chairman seems to have been so distracted by the primary battle for Governor that he forgot there were races in the House of Delegates happening as well.
Insiders tell me Amundson just didn’t want to do the hard work of campaigning when the outlook in her race was bleak, that even if she won she would again be unable to get any of her bills passed because the Republicans would retain the majority in the House of Delegates, and her rather difficult relationship with Ward Armstrong. I think she could have figured all of these things out long ago, and the timing of this announcement suggests something else might be at work here.
Regardless of her true motivation, this surprise does demonstrate that the DPVA has lost their momentum, cracks are developing within the party, and things are looking better for Republicans now than they have in the past several years. It’s going to be a good year, folks.
UPDATE: Mason Conservative musters far more gracious towards the far-left Amundson than I am able to stomach, but chimes in with this interesting analysis:
Pat Herrity carried Mount Vernon district in his special election razor-thin loss to Sharon Bulova. Lastly, I think incumbency and personal popularity like that Admundson enjoyed tends to hide the problems in a district. And there are problems in Mount Vernon stemming from crime issues along Route 1 and other things. With this now an open seat, McConville will lose the burden of having to convince voters to dump Amundson along with arguing for himself. Now he just gets to go out, work hard, hit the doors, and advocate for himself and his issues. It makes things much easier.
UPDATE 2: The Washington Post is reporting that indeed, less than 24 hours after Amundson’s announcement, FCDC Chairman Scott Surovell has magically been chosen as the replacement candidate. Isn’t it nice that Amundson’s mouthpiece over the last several weeks suddenly gets to be the candidate in this race without subjecting himself to the difficulties of having to run in a primary to become the nominee? This is the way succession is managed in North Korea. Funny to see it be the means of succession Democrats would try to use in Fairfax County.
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