Campaign finance reports are now available, and in Prince William County races there are only a few surprises. Most of these are falling in pretty much where I expected, but there are a few surprises here.
Bob Marshall: $53,808 raised, $101,548 on-hand
John Bell: $85,920 raised, $86,414 on-hand
Just like in 2007, the radical left is throwing money at anyone who challenges Bob Marshall. Just like on 2007, it’s not going to matter a whole lot. Bell hired a bunch of out-of-state people to run his campaign, and they’re chewing through money while producing little just as fast as they can rake in the money. The surprise here is that Marshall actually has more on-hand. I guess fiscal conservatism pays off.
Jackson Miller: $50,607 raised, $114,506 on-hand
Jeanette Rishell: $47,025 raised, $76,419 on-hand
For Rishell to get out-raised in September and be behind at this point in the cycle is rather unusual. She’s way off the pace from her past two runs, suggesting that Democrats think there are better uses for their money than throwing it down the “moonfruit rathole.” Her campaign actually spent more this period than it took in (by a whopping $27K), which is a big mistake especially when the “talent” she’s paying for has become a distraction to her campaign and clearly aren’t worth it.
Rich Anderson: $30,092 raised, $38,407 on-hand
Paul Nichols: $72,948 raised, $130,863 on-hand
No real surprises here. Nichols has deep pockets to self-finance, and lots of out-of-district attorney friends to help him out. Anderson needs to pick up the money pace a bit here, and perhaps get some expert tutlage from Bob Marshall who knows how to run well while at a financial disadvantage, but Anderson is still competitive. The first reporting period Anderson topped the local list for cash raised, and he’s going to need to do something like that again this upcoming period.
Raphael Lopez: $15,780 raised, $13,184 on-hand
Luke Torian: $87,166 raised, $47,219 on-hand
This is a bit of a surprise. Lopez is running like he’s a placeholder candidate with a finance report like this, and at this rate won’t be able to afford direct mail without outside help or a sudden turnaround. Lopez was way behind the pace last period, and this period he’s doing little better. Meanwhile Torian is working his fundraising pretty hard and building his money lead. Not looking good here for the Republicans, at all.
While money raised is a poor indicator of electoral success in Prince William County, it seems to indicate at this point in the cycle that Marshall and Miller are doing well, the 51st is going to be a competitive battle, and the 52nd is a likely flip to the Democrats. This doesn’t take into account at all the political dynamics that are happening which weight towards Republicans, and the fact there’s still fifty days left in this election where all sorts of things can happen. These statistics are indicators, but not good predictors by themselves. Still, in order to compete, you have to have the resources to do so, and in one case those resources haven’t shown up yet.
The opinions expressed here are solely the views of the author, and not representative of the position of any organization, political party, doughnut shop, knitting guild, or waste recycling facility, but may be correctly attributed to the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy. If anything in the above article has offended you, please click here to receive an immediate apology.