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PWC Area House of Delegates Finance Reports

By Greg L | 15 September 2009 | 52nd HOD District, 13th HOD District, 51st HOD District, Prince William County, 50th HOD District | 5 Comments

Campaign finance reports are now available, and in Prince William County races there are only a few surprises.  Most of these are falling in pretty much where I expected, but there are a few surprises here.

13th District

Bob Marshall: $53,808 raised, $101,548 on-hand
John Bell: $85,920 raised, $86,414 on-hand 

Just like in 2007, the radical left is throwing money at anyone who challenges Bob Marshall.  Just like on 2007, it’s not going to matter a whole lot.  Bell hired a bunch of out-of-state people to run his campaign, and they’re chewing through money while producing little just as fast as they can rake in the money.  The surprise here is that Marshall actually has more on-hand.  I guess fiscal conservatism pays off.

50th District

Jackson Miller: $50,607 raised, $114,506 on-hand
Jeanette Rishell: $47,025 raised, $76,419 on-hand

For Rishell to get out-raised in September and be behind at this point in the cycle is rather unusual.  She’s way off the pace from her past two runs, suggesting that Democrats think there are better uses for their money than throwing it down the “moonfruit rathole.”  Her campaign actually spent more this period than it took in (by a whopping $27K), which is a big mistake especially when the “talent” she’s paying for has become a distraction to her campaign and clearly aren’t worth it.

51st District

Rich Anderson: $30,092 raised, $38,407 on-hand
Paul Nichols: $72,948 raised, $130,863 on-hand

No real surprises here.  Nichols has deep pockets to self-finance, and lots of out-of-district attorney friends to help him out.  Anderson needs to pick up the money pace a bit here, and perhaps get some expert tutlage from Bob Marshall who knows how to run well while at a financial disadvantage, but Anderson is still competitive.  The first reporting period Anderson topped the local list for cash raised, and he’s going to need to do something like that again this upcoming period.

52nd District:

Raphael Lopez: $15,780 raised, $13,184 on-hand
Luke Torian: $87,166 raised, $47,219 on-hand 

This is a bit of a surprise.  Lopez is running like he’s a placeholder candidate with a finance report like this, and at this rate won’t be able to afford direct mail without outside help or a sudden turnaround.  Lopez was way behind the pace last period, and this period he’s doing little better.  Meanwhile Torian is working his fundraising pretty hard and building his money lead.  Not looking good here for the Republicans, at all.

Outlook

While money raised is a poor indicator of electoral success in Prince William County, it seems to indicate at this point in the cycle that Marshall and Miller are doing well, the 51st is going to be a competitive battle, and the 52nd is a likely flip to the Democrats.  This doesn’t take into account at all the political dynamics that are happening which weight towards Republicans, and the fact there’s still fifty days left in this election where all sorts of things can happen.  These statistics are indicators, but not good predictors by themselves.  Still, in order to compete, you have to have the resources to do so, and in one case those resources haven’t shown up yet.  



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5 Comments

  1. Disgusted said on 19 Sep 2009 at 10:41 am:
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    Why don’t we hear more about the race in the 52nd? This blog goes on and on about Rishelle, which anyone but an idiot would sense is a liar and a fake, but not a word in weeks about the 52nd. There are PLENTY of conservatives and Republicans in this end of the county. More folks need to understand that Torian is an abismal choice, but he’ll have a chance unless the faithful are motivated. Are Frederick’s supporters throwing a temper tantrum? Let’s get on it!

  2. Amused said on 21 Sep 2009 at 8:00 pm:
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    Frederick himself is throwing a temper tantrum and he’s down to only a handful of “supporters”. He should be ashamed of himself for letting Torian run away with this election. On the other hand, maybe he is helping Torian behind the scene just to get back at those big, mean “establishment Republicans” that threw him out of RPV just because they didn’t like him.

    This is one conservative Republican that is glad he is out of the picture!

  3. fed up said on 22 Sep 2009 at 10:06 am:
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    This is why the RPV is dysfunctional.

  4. fed up said on 22 Sep 2009 at 10:06 am:
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    It was dysfunctional long before Jeff became chair.

  5. Harry said on 29 Sep 2009 at 8:24 am:
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    Frderick moved in to what he hopes will still be Colgan’s Senate district in 2010, Frederick will be running for Colgan’s senate seat since Colgan will not be running next time.

Comments are closed.


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