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Tidal Wave Coming In The House Of Delegates
By Greg L | 12 October 2009 | Virginia House | 27 Comments
It’s been a long, long time since a Governor’s race looked to be generating coat-tails for candidates for the House of Delegates, but 2009 looks like it’s going to break a lot of the rules of conventional wisdom. In several races, Republican candidates are within the margin of error where in years past there wouldn’t be a chance of them being even close. This election, there may well be a shift of between eight and ten seats in the House of Delegates as voters fed up with current Washington-style politics and are poised to revolt. The old adage that in Virginia we don’t hire challengers, but fire incumbents, may be ready for retirement.
Here’s the way the more interesting races seem to be sorting out. If you don’t see it on this list, the race is probably going to be a snoozer.
3rd District - Bowling (D, incumbent) vs Morefield (R): Morefield is gaining a lot of traction against the entrenched Dan Bowling. This district doesn’t care a whole lot for what’s happening in the federal government and Morefield is leveraging that for all it’s worth with a dedicated, high-energy campaign. Outlook: Toss-Up, Potential Republican Pick-Up.
13th District - Marshall (R-incumbent) vs Bell (D): Bell is carrying Barack Obama’s man-bag here in a district that doesn’t care much for someone so focused on repealing the Marriage Amendment. Marshall is in good shape here. Outlook: Safe Republican Hold.
21st District - Mathieson (D-incumbent) vs Villanueva (R): Mathieson is in deep, deep trouble here. Villanueva is running well while the incumbent can’t get it together. Outlook: Likely Republican Pick-Up.
23rd District - Valentine (D-incumbent) vs Garrett (Republican): Valentine is in trouble here after enraging the folks at Liberty University, while the traditional liberal tilt of this district seems to be falling apart. This could be a real interesting race to watch, especially if McDonnell posts great numbers in the area. Outlook: Toss-Up, Potential Republican Pick-Up.
32nd District - Poisson (D-incumbent) vs Greason (Republican): Poisson, who has been underperforming here has his hands full with Tag Greason, who has been agressive and competent with his campaign. The suburban crescent in this District seems in an uproar over national politics, and Poisson has little to run on other than his affiliation with the party of Barack Obama. Outlook: Likely Republican Pick-Up.
34th District - Vanderhye (D-incumbent) vs Comstock (R): Comstock has been running an incredible campaign and has the weak Vanderhye on the run. National politics play a role here, but more significant has been the teriffic campaign Comstock has put together. Outlook: Likely Republican Pick-Up.
35th District - Keam (D) vs Hyland (R): Keam would traditionally be expected to have a strong advantage in this district, but Hyland is keeping this within the margin of error. This is one of those races where McDonnell’s margin of victory could swing the result, although McDonnell would have to win here in order to provide coat-tails. Outlook: Toss-Up, Potential Republican Pick-Up.
41st District - Marsden (D-incumbent) vs Bolognese (R): Dave Marsden has been AWOL most of this campaign cycle while Bolognese has been working hard. Dave Marsden hasn’t earned much loyalty from voters in this district, and the district could be influenced by the statewide ticket races. Watch the take on this race from NLS, since this is his district, and he knows it darned well. Outlook: Toss-Up, Potential Republican Pick-Up.
42nd District - Albo (R-incumbent) vs Werkeiser (D): Albo seems to be running a reasonably competent campaign, which is all that’s needed for him to win when the wind is at his back this year as opposed to in his face as it has been for him the last two election cycles. Meanwhile, Werkheiser is running out of energy and not running nearly as hard as he has in the past. Outlook: Likely Republican Hold.
43rd District - Sickles (D-incumbent) vs Nank (R): In what should be a pretty safe seat for Dems, Sickles seems to rather demoralized and potentially in some trouble. Nank hasn’t blown the doors off with his campaign, but he’s close enough to potentially benefit from a McDonnell wave. Outlook: Likely Democrat Hold.
44th District - McConville (R) vs Surovell (D): Surovell should be running away with it in this district but McConville is surprisingly keeping this a close one. This is one where up-ticket results could swing the results. Outlook: Toss-Up, Potential Republican Pick-Up.
46th District - Herring (D-incumbent) vs Gong (R): Perhaps one of the most intersting candidates this cycle is Sasha Gong, a former Chinese political prisoner with an incredible story. Herring has developed little connection during her first term, but Gong’s campaign hasn’t exactly been agressive. It’s a close affair with lots of voters still in play, and between what will unfold in the next few weeks and the impacts of the state-wide ticket, this could get interesting. Outlook: Likely Democrat Hold.
48th District - Brink (D-incumbent) vs Ringel (R): Most voters in this district don’t know who their delegate is, and Ringel is working pretty hard. Normally Arlington is a write-off for Republicans, but Ringel is making this one worth watching. A strong Republican GOTV effort here could end up knocking off the charter member of the House Homosexual Caucus and shock a lot of complacent liberals. Outlook: Likely Democrat Hold.
51st District - Nichols (D-incumbent) vs Anderson (R): This one seems really close, and getting really heated as Anderson seems to have gained control of the news cycle. With Anderson knocking 15,000 doors before Nichols seems to have noticed and a surprisingly competitive money race, this race has been one surprise after another. Add to that the strong influence here of the state-wide ticket, and you have all the makings for a flip. Outlook: Likely Republican Pick-Up.
52nd District - Lopez (R) vs Torian (D): the race to see who could run the worst campaign runs neck-and-neck here, but Torian’s gaffes are much more newsworthy. The candidates are running about even with each other now, and this is a race where some last-minute effort could decide the outcome. Outlook: Toss-Up, Potential Democrat Pick-Up.
64th District - Barlow (D-incumbent) vs Clark (R): This is another race that shouldn’t be competitive, but it is, and Barlow is beseiged here. Pile on the effect of the state-wide ticket, and this could be a big upset. Outlook: Toss-Up, Potential Republican Pick-Up.
67th District - Caputo (D-incumbent) vs Lemunyon (R): Caputo is running a terrible campaign, while LeMunyon is working hard and doing everything right. The district is one of the Fairfax districts more suceptible to national and state-wide influences, and Caputo’s AWOL campaign is floundering. Outlook: Likely Republican Pick-Up.
83rd District - Bouchard (D-incumbent) vs Stolle (R): Bouchard is getting hammered by Chris Stolle here, and the state-wide impact is going to be substantial. This one ended weeks ago. Outlook: Likely Republican Pick-Up.
86th District - Rust (R-incumbent) vs Miller (D): Although Dems have been pouring a lot of effort into this race, it hasn’t had much effect. Miller isn’t a strong candidate, and Rust has earned a pretty significant following. While Dems tout this as a possible pick-up, that’s not what is going to happen at all. Outlook: Safe Republican Hold.
93rd District: Hamilton (R-incumbent) vs Abbott (D): The embattled Phil Hamilton could have been taken down by a competent Dem, but that’s not who he’s facing this cycle. Abbott is a rather poor candidate running a bad race in this district, and Dems are already expressing frustration at this lost opportunity. Outlook: Likely Republican Hold.
So here’s how all these sort out:
Likely Republican Pick-Up: 6 seats
Potential Republican Pick-Up: 6 seats
Likely Hold (Both Parties): 7 seats
Potential Democrat Pick-Up: 1 seat
Likely Democrat Pick-Up: 0 seats
And that’s why NLS is showing videos and pictures of tsunamis as a preview of his analysis on the House of Delegates races, and saying this:
The Democratic Caucus is trying to decide now who gets left in the hallway to die and who they will try to save.
Democrats are in trouble this election, and they know it.
The opinions expressed here are solely the views of the author, and not representative of the position of any organization, political party, doughnut shop, knitting guild, or waste recycling facility, but may be correctly attributed to the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy. If anything in the above article has offended you, please click here to receive an immediate apology.
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And in other great news Chris Plante returns to WMAL on Monday morning, back in his old slot. So long Mika and Joe! Goodbye and good riddence!
Republicans winning, Chris Plante returning, that just made my day. I was tired of switching over to 570am and having to switch stations before Ed Schultz came on.
Chris Plant coming back, wow that is good news. Did not like Joe or Mika just too slick and worried about offending Dems. I sincerely hope the Republicans have learned their lesson and don’t screw it up this time
The word in the 52nd district community, is most do not like the Democrat. Even Democrats are not happy about him dissing the NACCP, and his flamboyant lifestyle. He does not have the support of his church, they have called him on the carpet more then once on his support of civil unions between gays and support of Roe v. Wade.
Democrat Torian is dodging the 990 tax issue, because for the most part his church has no idea his wife is listed as Assistant Pastor at 100K, which gives the couple a hugh tax break as clergy members, when she really isnt part of the churches clergy. This makes for a major problem for most because if this isn’t tax evasion, it surely is a significant deduction in taxes for the Torians, unlike the taxes us average Joe’s have to pay.
If Republican come out strong for the party and vote Rafael Lopez, this seat could be easily retained. This seat will definitely be retained on party strength, if the Republicans in the 52nd will just vote along party lines. All of Prince William County could be held in the Assembly by Republicans if the party supports and votes. Don’t miss this chance, this is the Republicans chance. Just by coming out and voting!
Here!!!! Here!!!! Joe was somewhat tolerable but Mika or whatever her name is was just plain stupid and so off base for even liberal norms on most of the things she talked about or commented on.
The job for her is on the Kevin Trudeau book infomercial she was on.
He was explaining his book in painfull third grade detail and she was still looking at him like she was a deer in the headlights, commenting all the while “really”,” oh wow”,” oh thats so easy”
I hope you’re right, but we have some areas where the GOP candidates are struggling….and in places where there might not be a coattail effect.
In Southwest, GOP incumbents Crockett-Stark (6th Dist), and Nutter (7th Dist) are in tough battles…with Cleaveland struggling against Mason in the open 17th. In Southside, once again Danny Marshall finds himself in a very tight spot. I’m pretty sure 1 or 2 of these seats will result in GOP losses, but I’ll be optimistic and say a net loss of 1 for the GOP since I really don’t see Valentine losing in Lynchburg.
I think I agree with you on Tidewater except I just don’t see Hamilton (93rd Dist) pulling it out. Everyone knows that if he goes back, he’s going to be practically neutered since the Speaker will likely pull him off of Appropriations and most of the GOP caucus has already thrown him under the bus. I share your optimism on the GOP pick-ups in Virginia Beach where a huge McDonnell margin will be enough to push good campaigns over the top. Stolle (83rd) and even in the much tougher district, Villanuvea (21st) should both win. That would be a net GOP gain of 1 for this area.
The toughest area to predict is NOVA. I agree that the GOP incumbents in tight races should all hold. Rust and Albo always run 1st rate campaigns and this cycle is no exception. I just don’t see all the pick-ups in Fairfax with the poor fundraising and no compelling issues to motivate voters to throw their Delegate out of office. The exception being Comstock (34th), but I still think she hasn’t made the case. The only Dem incumbent I see losing is Caputo against LeMunyon (67th). In Prince William I’m afraid that Torian wins by default to lose the Frederick seat (52nd) for the GOP (big surprise) and for some reason I think the hit mail piece will cause a backlash against Anderson and Nichols holds in the 51st (the toughest race to read because of the unusual dynamics playing out right now).
So, I’m thinking Southwest/Southside (-1), Tidewater (+1), and NOVA (0 net change). So…unless Comstock and Anderson can really ramp it up and finish strong, we’ll see no net change in the House of Delegates.
That’s a lot of sweat and donor money down the tubes. I sure hope I’m being overly pessimistic here.
Torian is in for a rude awakening in the 52nd.
To the tune of $40K in TV ads against him in the final 3 weeks.
I live in Bob Marshal’s district and I have to say that I absolutely love him and really really hope he gets re-elected. Bob is a tireless fighter and doesn’t back down when things get tough. If you have a valid issue, he’ll stand up and defend you no matter how hard the fight is.
PWC needs to get out and vote for him. Bell apparently enjoys a lead in Loudoun and if PWC doesn’t show up, he could win. Then some of us in his district would have the pleasure of having our Representative to the US House of Representative not give a darn about PWC because he’d from Fairfax and our state delegate not give a darn about PWC because he’s from Loudoun.
We need to get out the vote for Bob Marshall!
Well the Republicans have the numbers in the 52nd district, they just need to come out and vote. Most are not comfortable with Torian’s lack of viable answers to solutions in PW, and with him skipping the NAACP’s debate it will be interesting to see what endoresments he receives, if any, being he isnt supported by his church.
With the momentum building in Prince William its a matter of the Republican party just getting out to vote.
With the recent trend in non-national election cycles of down ticket voting, as long as McDonnell holds this lead the other Republicans should do well. We just need to make sure we don’t panic and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with 3 weeks to go.
Sounds like the Redskins, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory
It’s funny that it seems that almost every business in the 51st District has a Nichols sign yet all the houses that have a sign come from Anderson.
Tonight is the Bar Association debate for the 51st and 52nd Delegates at the Verizon Auditorium from 7 to 9:00 p.m. This event is open to the public and there is no charge to attend.
As Dittyman8 pointed out, Nichols is very connected to the business community. He has lived here for 31 years and has a successful lawyer practice with 12 attorneys, he is a developer and small business owner. He gets it.
He has also committed to reforming BPOL. The Business Professional and Occupational License is a tax that all PW businesses must pay after gross revenue hits $100k. Even if your business has a loss, you have to pay PWC. Desparately needs reforming. Nichols gets this stuff. From a business perspective he thinks like a Reagan Republican.
Besides, after Anderson’s bone-head move mailing Nichols social security number to 15,000 homes, it really shows poor judgement and a lack of common sense
from Anderson.
One thing we know for SURE - this election will be PROOF POSITIVE that some voters are TOTAL MORONS, IDIOTS, FOOLS and HALF WITS. Here’s why:
In the 51st we’ve got the Medal of Valor recipient, retired Air Force Colonel (33 years of DEDICATED service), Civil Air Patrol past National Commander and Brigadier General, Rich Anderson.
Running against him, the PROFESSIONAL LIAR, BOTTOM FEEDING DIVORCE LAWYER and DRUNKEN BRAWLER (arrested for ASSAULT on a POLICE OFFICER in N.C.),who helped a SEXUAL PREDATOR commit a CRIME. The RIDICULOUS JOKE, Paul F. (for Fu**ster) Nickles.
BTW, does ANYONE know, in which branch of the military DIRTBAG NICKLES served ? He’s what, 58 or 59? Certainly he must have served his country, after all, there was a WAR going on, unless he’s also a DRAFT DODGER!
C’mon now, HOW STUPID would you have to be to VOTE for this PATHETIC CLOWN?
Once again, for the STUPID people, HOW STUPID would you have to be to vote for a DRUNKEN BRAWLER, LYING, DRAFT DODGING COWARD, not to mention ADULTERER?
C’mon Harry, answer the question.
Hahaha….I think Kevin C. is still in the undecided column on the race in the 51st.
Kevin C. WOW!
Harry? Geesh, your posting doesn’t deserve a response…anyone with half a brain will consider the source–YOU! You don’t seem very credible and actually it’s people like you that will help get Paul relected!
Let Anderson have the support of nut jobs like Kevin.
Gee, does Kevin melt down like this everytime he’s in the losing camp?
It’s pretty telling. My 3 year old does it too.
Its just politics: “…your posting doesn’t deserve a response…”
Talk about STUPID! (Is that you Harry? Posting from one of your many ALIAS screen names? )
IF my posting doesn’t derserve a response, and this is what TOTALLY SLAYS me, WHY are YOU responding?
And, for the record, I have DEMOCRATS wearing Rich Anderson bumper stickers.
Nickles is DONE !!!
Repub Mom’s posting is kind of a, “What’s wrong with this picture?”
Isn’t it?
Vanderhye is vulnerable. She won an open seat 2 years ago against an opponent who ran a weak campaign. Comstock is being much more effective. We’ll see.
Ditty…it’s Nichols, not not nickles as in currency. And, I am not Harry.
I haven’t seen any “DEMOCRATS wearing Rich Anderson bumper stickers.”
WHOEVER: I haven’t seen any “DEMOCRATS wearing Rich Anderson bumper stickers.”
This from someone who REFUSES to take off his/her BLINDFOLD?
You are right about the 35th. Hyland has a good campaign and he is going to upset the Democrats machine there.
The old politics of Washington? Last time I checked, we’ve had a pretty Republican dominated executive and legislative. But you guys put whatever blinders on make you feel better
You’ve missed a good race in NoVA - Mac Cannon (R) challenging 30 year incumbent and Democratic caucus chair Ken Plum in the 36th district. Plum has been virtually ineffective and has very little to show for such a long career in the “business” as he calls it. Mac is running to SERVE the constituents of the 36th and while this tends to be a left-leaning area, I think some people may be surprised. The two candidates could not be more different: young and fresh vs. old and jaded; tall vs. short; fiscally conservative vs. tax raiser; detailed transportation plan vs. no plan; zero tolerance crime policy vs. soft on crime and sides with the criminal and the list goes on. I’m voting for positive change for the 36th and I am voting Cannon for Delegate.
Bryanna said on 14 Oct 2009 at 4:02 pm: “…it’s Nichols, not not nickles…”
So Bryanna, are you the BIRD BRAIN who, apparently, doesn’t have sense enough to recognize a FRAT-BOY, DRUNKEN, ABUSIVE BRAWLER when she SEES one?
Surely that cannot be YOU who wrote, in the local (LOP-SIDED) rag that, “It is blatantly obvious that Del. Paul Nichols is the superior candidate …”
How can someone SO BLIND think ANYTHING at all is, “blatant?”
I suppose you ALSO think that Rich Anderson is SOMEHOW responsible because the DRUNKEN, BRAWLING LOW-LIFE took on a (female) police officer TRYING to do her duty by intimidating her until she called for back-up and the RIDICULOUS CLOWN got EXACTLY what was coming to him, a FACE full of PAVEMENT !!!!!
All Rich Anderson did was EXPOSE Nuckles (That’s short for KNUCKLEHEAD) for what he is!
Maybe you’ve got a “thing” for ABUSERS?
Bryanna(in reference to Nickles): “…and job creator…”
What, are you HIGH?
Name ONE job Nickles has created!
Just ONE!
I SWEAR, whatever you’re SMOKIN’ you’d better PRAY you don’t get caught!
TRY to pay attention, Nickles is the JOKE of Richmond!