Comments on: A Few HOD Races To Watch

By: FED UP

FED UP — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:01:13 +0000

EVERYONE NEEDS TO GET OUT AND VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

By: zuzu

zuzu — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 20:11:13 +0000

Thanks for the reassurance CF & GL. I’ll definitely be there in support of McDonnell, Cooch, Miller, & Bolling. I was just wondering because it looks like they (the opposition) really hit Manassas hard over the weekend with all the Deeds signage that’s been plastered around town. Interestingly, several hispanic members of SEIU came to my door over the weekend.
I don’t know why they came to MY door because I’ve been a registered Republican for 28 years (maybe an admin error).
I played along as an Independent and they said they’d be at all polling places tomorrow. They wanted to know if I was registered to vote (what if I’m not…did they have an “alternative plan” this late in the game?) and if I’d be voting on Tue and if I knew who I was voting for, etc. Then I asked them if they had a permit to “solicit” in my neighborhood, at which point they turned and walked away, ignoring my repeated question. I called my neighbor and told her what was going on and she went out and asked them if they had a permit to solicit in our community. A few minutes later, they left the area. Adios!

By: Casanova Frankenstein

Casanova Frankenstein — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:31:46 +0000

You’ve got bad intel, zuzu.

Not even close.

Right now, the GOP has 53 seats plus 2 indies who vote with them. That’s 55. Add these gains and they’ll be between 64 and 69 seats.

I think we should aim for 70 seats after redistricting come 2011.

By: Greg L

Greg L — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:31:27 +0000

The Miller-Rishell race is close in the sense of whether Miller will win by over twenty points or under from what I’ve been hearing.

Still, don’t get cocky and feel you don’t have to go to the polls because the race has already been decided. It hasn’t. Fight right up to the last minute to make sure it’s decided the right way.

By: zuzu

zuzu — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:08:06 +0000

I hope this isn’t true but, I just heard that the race between Miller & Rishell is very close….what’s up with THAT?

By: Gnarly

Gnarly — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 05:05:46 +0000

I sure hope you’re right Greg…I really do.

By: Greg L

Greg L — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 03:00:44 +0000

Oh yeah, that was quite a typo. Meant to say Danny Smith.

By: Ron

Ron — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:52:53 +0000

“Hyland will add a fourth, and we might have one more from among McConville, Bolgnese, or Keam. Maybe 2.”

Keam? He’s the Democrat running against Hyland! Did you mean someone else?

By: Greg L

Greg L — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:53:49 +0000

Gnarly, that’s an interesting asessment that the Dems would take a lot heart from. I’m seeing things a little differently, and NLS and I seem to be seeing things along the same lines.

Comstock, Greason and LeMunyon will win, providing the first 3 pick-ups in Fairfax and Loudoun. Hyland will add a fourth, and we might have one more from among McConville, Bolgnese, or ~~Keam~~ Danny Smith. Maybe 2.

In PWC, it will be a full Republican sweep providing a net gain of +1. Torian is wilting.

Elsewhere, Stan Clark takes Barlow, Morefield takes Bowling, Stolle takes Bouchard, and Villanueva takes Mathieson. Hamilton is going to hang on.

Bury and Nank are competitive, and put two more potential pickups in play. Add the above folks to the list, and that’s one heck of a lot of competitive races for Dems to defend when the wind is in their faces. They can’t adequately concentrate effort across eighteen different races no matter how much late union money gets throw their way, and most of the big money is getting siphoned off by Deeds, Wagner and Shannon who can’t afford to lend any resources. Meanwhile, a lot of money that might have been needed to seal the deal for McDonnell, Bolling and Cooch is getting pushed downstream to HOD races where the fights are close and winnable. Republicans have resources to push down-ticket, while Democrats have none.

That makes nine pick-ups that look pretty solid now, and the potential for at least five more. A pickup of between nine and fourteen is huge. I’m projecting eleven, conservatively.

By: Gnarly

Gnarly — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 00:23:39 +0000

I still think the only possible gain in NOVA will come from either one or all picking up for Rs (Comstock, Greason, and LeMunyon….with the latter being the most likely). PWC will be a wash with an R pick-up in the 51st with Anderson and an R loss with Torian winning the 52nd.

Then we come out of Tidewater with a Hamilton loss for Rs but 2 R pick-ups at the beach for a net change of plus 1.

Then across Southside/Southwest I hate to say, but one of the incumbent Rs will lose, but we hold the opens and pick-up the 3rd in the coalfields. giving a zero net change. All Central and Piedmont Rs will hold.

This is far more pessimistic than all the predictions I’ve seen for GOP pick-ups, but I’m predicting a 2 or 3 seat pick-up for the GOP in House seats this cycle. I’m just not sure why I’m so pessimistic about it. I just see it that way right now.