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Early Polling Observations
By Greg L | 3 November 2009 | Virginia Politics, Manassas City, Prince William County | 38 Comments
Party and campaign operations folks are telling me this morning that turnout in traditionally Republican-leaning precincts in Prince William County are ranging in the 8-9% range, while Democrat-leaning precincts are hovering in the 3-4% range. Although I expect this gap to narrow throughout the day, the gap should widen back up in the last two hours of polling. The feeling on the ground in many Democrat precincts is that Republicans are at least holding their ground, while in Republican precincts they strongly outnumber Democrats.
The intensity levels seem to follow this disparity as well. I’ve seen a number of Republican voters stick around to chat after they’ve voted, but hardly and Democrats seem to be interested in doing so. Some have told me they intend to do their own personal get-out-the-vote effort among their friends and co-workers today in order to send a strong message to Washington, which I haven’t seen happen a whole lot before. Among the voters I spoke with, their motivation clearly has a lot to do with concerns over the policies of Congress and the Obama administration and few have mentioned much at all about either their local delegates or state-wide candidates.
It also seems that Democrats have had some difficulty in finding enough volunteers at various polling places. While I haven’t yeat heard of any completely unmanned polling places, staffing both inside and outside the polls is a huge rarity, while that’s pretty much the norm for Republicans. Republicans have plenty of large signs (4×4’s and 4×8’s) up at polling places, and Democrats have none. Democrat election operations seem to be weak across the county, and they don’t seem to have the ability to rotate poll workers in and out at anywhere near the same frequency they have in the past.
All this indicates that the huge margins predicted for Republicans in pre-election polling seem to be developing, and a sweep of state-wide and many House of Delegates races is absolutely going to happen.
UPDATE: Providing a Democrat perspective on what’s going on today, NLS is saying “It’s worse than anyone thought.” and “This might be the largest margin for a Virginia Republican in the state’s history.” From his perspective, the Deeds campaign has alienated core Democrat voters by playing to the middle, dramatically undermining the turnout of voters who would be expected to vote a straight Democrat ticket. I’m not so certain Deeds’ attempt to “pander to the middle” is the cause of all of this, although abandoning core principles is a bad strategy that hasn’t worked for Republicans either when they tried it. More likely, no one on the Democrat ticket this cycle is anywhere near as compelling and engaging as Obama was, and if voters just plain don’t like you or your running mates personally, they’re not going to come vote for you. Unfortunately, personality is a major factor for candidates these days, and when you have none you tend to lose a whole lot of voters.
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Is it true that the Republicans are handing out voter guides at the polls that do not include Bob Marshall’s name?
I voted at Bennett precinct around 8:00 this morning – very light turnout and the Republicans handing out lit told me it had been light all morning. Just helped my mom vote at Heritage Hunt (around 11:00) and they had a strong turnout. We had to wait in line.
The poll numbers look good but don’t take anything for granted. Get to your voting place and vote for our Republicans!
K - I didn’t look at the voter guide at Bennett but the one at Heritage Hunt had Bob just as prominently as the three others.
I voted around 11:00am…saw Rishell greeting voters and handing out lit herself with one other person at Baldwin.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Bennett had Marshall’s name. I can’t imagine they would have left any republican off. Note they can’t really leave people off ballots anyway, so the question would be whether they highlighted a vote for the position or not — but Marshall is definitely selected on the sample ballots.
I voted at Victory Elementary this morning about 9:15 am. There were a few other people there, but no wait. Someone offered me a republican voting guide on orange 8 1/2 by 11 paper, and it DID include Bob Marshall’s name. There was also another woman outside, handing out smaller, white pieces of paper. I don’t know what it was–she didn’t offer me one (?) though I saw her offer it to other people, including those who had already taken an orange Republican guide…
Thanks for the feedback - it was mentioned by someone at the polls, but without any specifics.
I voted at Jennie Dean at approx. 10:30 AM. Light turn out but I heard the voters were steady. PLEASE do not sit back and think that the conservatives have this one in the bag! GET OUT THERE AND VOTE!!!!!!!
At the Signal Hill Precinct (where Delegate Marshall lives, actually), they were handing out the orange GOP sheet and it did have Marshall on the list. There were no Marshall signs and few GOP signs in front of the voting location, though…
I’m heading to Sinclair in about 5 mins. to vote so I can check out the lunch rush (or lack of).
From the News & Messenger:
“Nearby a volunteer with House of Delegates candidate Jeannette Rishell handed out flyers in support of her. The volunteer, who asked not to be named, said it was her first time volunteering on Election Day.”
LOL–please don’t tell anyone you saw me here with a handful of Rishell flyers!
http://www2.insidenova.com/isn/news/local/article/steady_stream_of_voters_at_the_polls/46390/
I just voted in the Baldwin district in the City, and I walked right in and right out in about two minutes.
I voted at Mullen this morning. They only had three judges one for each line instead of two. Was one person ahead of me and one behind me in line
Lowell just posted this…
UPDATE 2:52 pm: Dan Kalbacher tweets, “A very reliable source on the ground in Lancaster County just informed me that Crabill’s crazies are coming out in droves! Uh oh….” Also, cvilletomorrow tweets, “At 1PM Albemarle Co. is at 25.9% voter turnout & City of Charlottesville reports 18.6%.”
C’mon people in the 99th!!! Write-in HAM SANDWICH!!!
Total Dem meltdown apparently happening in VA House races
From Not Larry Sabato’s tweets:
http://twitter.com/notlarrysabato
ALERT ALERT: REPUBLICAN PICKUP IN HOUSE OF DELEGATES NOW A MINIMUM OF SIX SEATS.
about 2 hours ago from web
SIX SEATS ARE GONE- ANOTHER NINE ARE IN PLAY FOR GOP PICKUP.
about 2 hours ago from web
Vote Vote Vote- Save as many Delegates as you can!!
19 minutes ago from TwitterBerry
Counting the 2 indies that caucus w/ the GOP, a 15 seat pick-up would put the House at 70 GOPers… I’ve thought this privately, but never said it because I thought people would say I was insane.
Big question of the day — will McDonnell carry Fairfax?
Let’s not get to sure of our selves. Keep plugging for Vote Republican.
There has been alot more activity this year than we have seen in the past. Alot more money coming in from the State. And thats what our Candidates need if they are going to win.
We also need many from the Womens Clubs to pull a share at the polls and even the phone calls. Some have really been lacking.
Maybe a good list of those that worked would help. Not just the ones who goes to the free socials.
All our Prayers for all of the Republicans this day. We can pull it off.
Lowell @ Blue Virginia is writing off Nichols.
“Del. Paul Nichols (D) stands only a slightly better chance of winning than his Prince William colleague Jeanette Rishell. Unfortunately for Nichols, Rishell would be lucky to get 40%.”
Agreed. Let’s make all this happen. And it will ONLY happen if people actually vote!
” Unfortunately for Nichols, Rishell would be lucky to get 40%.”
I’d put her prospects at 35% tops
Voted at Sinclair around 1:00p. The parking lot was quite full but there were only two other voters in line with me. Forgot to check the roll number. Democrat signage was VERY weak there.
O/T Speaking of the parking lot at Sinclair. I can’t believe they did all that parking work at Sinclair and then left the satellite lot a dead-end. When I was trying to park, it was just like old times with the “shuffle” that went on in the past. They should have put another entry/exit curb cut back out to Garner next to the adjacent church driveway.
How many seats were we voting for? I had 4 on mine.
“Big question of the day — will McDonnell carry Fairfax?”.
I can’t imagine that happening. He should carry Fairfax County but I don’t think he will. Too many stump stupid northern transplants who would vote for Idi Amin if he ran as a Democrat.
Voted at the MP rec enter at 2:30. I was the only one in there…
Better pack your bags illegals because the deck is about to get stacked against you in Richmond. With cooch and Bob in the big houses and a depression in full swing (regardless of the green shoots BS you hear on TV) there is no reason to have illegals in our state stealing jobs that desperate unemployed folks would love to have right now. Not to mention the drain in social services that they are costing us when must municipalities are wondering how they are going to survive through this fiscal year, yet alone the next which is looking worse than this one. Sympathizers like Stolle, Dean, Connolly, etc are going to find themselves with fewer and fewer friends real soon now.
I voted at about 4:00 P.M.
I usually am one of the FIRST to vote but today I waited just so I could get a look at what was going on later in the day.
I wasn’t happy with all the oBAAma stickers on the cars in the (VERY FULL) parking lot.
I vote in the 51st so, IF you know anyone who hasn’t (or might not have) voted yet, PLEASE call them and MAKE SURE they get out and vote.
You have just over an hour to GET THEM OUT!
BTW, at about 4:00, somewhere around 500 people had cast their vote.
Once again, and people have been saying this ALL DAY, do NOT think that you don’t have to vote just because Bob McDonnell has a DOUBLE DIGIT lead in the polls.
The other candidates NEED your vote!
We do NOT want to prove the old adage, “If you SNOOZE you LOSE!”
GET YOUR FRIENDS OUT TO VOTE!!!!
Virginia election results can be tracked here…
http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Election_Information/Election_Results/2009/November_General_Election.h
@Groveton
You got that right. Too many people are still treating their civic duty to vote likes it is picking a sports team to win a particular contest. This is especially the case in places like NoVa. They read the WaPost like a Bible. A bunch of supposedly very intelligent people –FFX voters– fail at some very basic math and what would seem as an obvious understanding of human nature. Their elitism is apparent in believing that we are much more “evolved” as a species than we really are or some such Utopian fantasy. Real life isn’t the gravy train and it also is not the Statist Matrix.
I recommend Doctor Zero’s writings over at HotAir.com. He lays it out quite well. His latest is the “Stupid Party” and, yes, he ain’t talkin’ about the DNC.
http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2009/11/02/the-stupid-party/
1284 @ Marstellar at 6pm. That is approaching 40 percent.
There’s still 28 minutes left to vote so JUST DO IT!!!!! EVERY VOTE COUNTS!!!
There’s still 28 minutes left —- JUST DO IT!!!!! EVERY VOTE COUNTS!!!
Sorry about the duplicate posts…..
MarkinToA
Does this Dr. Zero person always write that well?
es_la_ley said on 3 Nov 2009 at 5:47 pm
Bad link. You missed the “tml” at the end.
Other thread link is fine, though.
MarkinToA said on 3 Nov 2009 at 6:43 pm:
es_la_ley said on 3 Nov 2009 at 5:47 pm
Bad link. You missed the “tml” at the end.
Sorry! Thanks for the correction!
http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Election_Information/Election_Results/2009/November_General_Election.html
You’re welcome. I don’t mean to be a nag, just helpful.
Groveton said on 3 Nov 2009 at 6:39 pm
I would say most of the time he is excellent. I can’t recall a time I thought he was crap. He used to be just a commenter at HotAir. Several months ago, HotAir did a serious review of comments posted and launched what they call “The Green Room”. They have more than one very good conservative writer from that concept.
The guy pretty much is in my head often. I have no idea who he is but you can make your own judgement.
Dr. Zero’s Archive:
http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/author/doctor-zero/
If you go to the main page at HotAir, there is a link at the top to the Green Room if you’d like to explore others. Anita Moncrief comes to mind. She’s a black, female, former liberal and quite good also. She also has some video over there about her “conversion”.
Left a post earlier that never took. I see you still haven’t fixed the technical problems with this blog Greg after all these years…
I worked the last two hours at Dean, and there was not a single lib handing out sample ballots. There was a steady flow of voters. Please, please, please, Jeanette run again in two years.