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50th District Results

By Greg L | 4 November 2009 | Jeanette Rishell, 50th HOD District | 27 Comments

“A mixed blessing is when your mother in law drives off a cliff, but does it in your new Cadillac.”

On the good news front, I don’t think there’s any way we’re going to have to deal with Jeanette Rishell as a candidate ever again.  On the bad news front, Jackson Miller may not have Jeanette Rishell as an opponent in 2011.  This one was such a blowout that Rishell will likely never run again for office, and her campaign manager Ilana Kaplain-Shain is probably looking for a career in retail sales about now.  About the only thing better than running against Jeanette Rishell is running unopposed, and the difference isn’t all that great.

Two years ago Jackson demolished Rishell by just under twenty-one points, winning Rishell’s precinct, and taking everything but Sinclair in a rout of a scale that surprised many.  We knew he would win, but not by nearly that much.  This time Rishell didn’t have the News & Messenger pounding her with editorials about how she was lying in her campaign mailers, and Jackson Miller still increased his margin to nearly twenty-five points at 62-38.  Compare that race with the 40th District, where Tim Hugo ran against someone who didn’t campaign and didn’t raise any money, beating the unknown Susan Conrad by 63-37.  Excluding in-kind donations, Rishell spent over a quarter of a million dollars according to her latest campaign finance report and had an eight member campaign staff.  She performed only one point better than someone who raised less than $4,000, didn’t even have a campaign manager, and did little more than put up a website and have sample ballots handed out on election day.

They could have saved all that time, expense and trouble, and instead simply slapped a “D” label on a bologna sandwich and entered it as a candidate.  The results wouldn’t have differed a whole lot.

This year turnout was a little higher than 2007, with about 2,050 more ballots cast in the 50th.  Rishell took only about 570 of those votes, with the lion’s share going to Miller. Once again Rishell only won the Sinclair precinct (although by a slightly smaller margin), while in every other precinct Jackson Miller increased his lead over Rishell.  The story really is that 2009 was the same as 2007, only more so (pun intended).  To the extent that anything shifted this election, it was that Jackson’s biggest percentage gains were in the precincts with the largest minority populations.  In Manassas Park 1, Jackson increased his vote total by 57% over 2007 while Rishell only increased hers by 19%.  In Metz, Jackson was up over 17% while Rishell added less than 2% to her total.  That story plays out in every precinct in this district to varying degrees, but is consistent.

Put a fork in her, Jeanette Rishell is done.

Miller Rishell
Parkside 652 400
Sinclair 409 424
Stonewall 694 367
Westgate 343 300
ABS 118 47
PWC TOTAL 2216 1538
Dean 1132 433
Weems 699 441
Metz 758 370
Haydon 938 508
Baldwin 648 484
ABS 277 147
MANASSAS TOTAL 4452 2383
MP1 503 355
MP2 407 289
ABS 70 38
MP TOTAL 980 682
ALL TOTAL 7648 4603
TURNOUT 12251
PCT 62.43% 37.57%


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27 Comments

  1. Love the U.S.A. said on 4 Nov 2009 at 8:10 pm:
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    I think she just might be dumb enouh to try for a 4th run.

  2. Craig Eddy said on 4 Nov 2009 at 9:49 pm:
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    I’m hopeful that in the not-too-distant future Jackson will be moving on up to take Congressman Wolf’s seat.

  3. James Young said on 4 Nov 2009 at 9:52 pm:
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    I talked to at least one Dem today who was openly mocking her.

  4. Chris said on 4 Nov 2009 at 10:42 pm:
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    What’s the likelihood of Miller taking on Chuck Colgan in 2011?

  5. Greg L said on 4 Nov 2009 at 11:23 pm:
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    Head-to-head, it would probably be pretty high although Miller would have to abandon his delegate seat in order to run. Many other interesting possibilities with this as well, and don’t forget redistricting comes to play here and PWC is probably going to get another senate seat, as well as several house seats.

    Miller is in good position to head to the senate when the opportunity arises. He’ll be a great addition.

  6. citizenofmanassas said on 5 Nov 2009 at 12:49 am:
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    I’d like to see Jackson run for a State Senate Seat. But, I would also love to see him aim for something even higher, a run at Lt. Governor in four years. After two terms as the second fiddle, Bill Bolling should be rewarded with his party loyalty and not face party competition for Governor.

  7. anon in dale city said on 5 Nov 2009 at 4:12 am:
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    I guess you will now get to enjoy an election like the 51st district with your choice of one Republican candidate. What could be better than that?

  8. Kevin C. said on 5 Nov 2009 at 4:58 am:
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    Chris said on 4 Nov 2009 at 10:42 pm:

    “What’s the likelihood of Miller taking on Chuck Colgan in 2011?”

    Colgan is a FIXTURE in Western PW BUT, and this is a BIG BUTT, he’s GOT to be closing in on 90 by now.

    Do you think he’ll even RUN in 2011?

    I don’t.

    Isn’t it about time for him to RETIRE?

  9. Kevin C. said on 5 Nov 2009 at 4:59 am:
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    Needless to say, it SHOULD read, “FIXTURE.”

  10. DPortM said on 5 Nov 2009 at 6:40 am:
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    Off topic, but read this blurb in “On Success” in the Washington Compost about Carlos Castro, former illegal alien and owner of Todos Supermarket, entitled “From Illegal to Entrepeneur”:

    http://views.washingtonpost.com/on-success/what-it-takes/2009/11/from_illegal_to_entrepreneur.html

  11. Big Dog said on 5 Nov 2009 at 8:13 am:
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    Senator Colgan said in the last election that it was his last campaign.
    The gentleman is 83 years old and has served our community well
    at both the county and state levels. We were fortunate for
    decades to have strong, smart and dedicated representation in
    Richmond by Delegate Harry Parrish and Senator Check Colgan.
    Jackson Miller has met their high standard, now we will need to
    find someone to join him.

  12. Gurduloo said on 5 Nov 2009 at 9:12 am:
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    Why did Rishell win the Sinclair precinct? What’s different about that one?

  13. Gnarly said on 5 Nov 2009 at 9:37 am:
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    Big Dog is correct. Sen. Colgan will be taking a much deserved retirement….he was pressured to run last time in order to get the majority and having the Finance Committee Chair for one last term.

    I’d rather see Bob Marshall move up to Congress. His grasp of parliamentary rules will drive them nuts in the House of Representatives…that’s what I want to see SO BADLY.

    Then Jackson Miller should move to the State Senate seat and get in line to move into statewide office.

    For the open Delegate seat, Carrol Weimer would be my choice.

  14. Bwana said on 5 Nov 2009 at 9:39 am:
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    The redistricting matter is interesting. In previous years-decades(!)-the practice has been work from western PW down to and past the cities to create a whole district, then divvy the rest as needed.

    I have heard the Dems-who do control the state senate right now-want to start the process by redistricting from Eastern PW and move West, and to either marginalize the western GOP precincts by diluting them into an otherwise dem district (probably a combination with Fairfax) or try to obviate them by adding them to an existing GOP district.

    That is why the special elections are so critical. If the GOP holds each seat and can get a Dem flip to the cabinet, etc., then the senate is dead even and getting out a pro GOP plan more likely.

  15. Greg L said on 5 Nov 2009 at 10:11 am:
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    My feeling is that Marshall is going to run against Warner for a senate seat in 2012 unless a congressional seat opens up. If a congressional seat becomes available in Western PW we will also likely see John Stirrup consider a run. Lots of great talent is available in western Prince William, and Dems don’t have a deep bench of qualified candidates there to say the least.

    The possibility of Colgan retiring mid-term is pretty significant, but the pressure on him not to do so will be intense. Hard to predict what will happen there, because Colgan does his own thing, but he’s going to be picky about who is going to potentially replace him and will stay put rather than vacate the seat and let someone he doesn’t like win it.

    As to the question about Sinclair, it always leans Dem as do several nearby districts that are in the 13th District. Lots of affordable housing is concentrated there, a fair amount of union members, and it’s very ethnically diverse. Nearby Mullen and Sudley North are almost identical.

  16. Albert B. said on 5 Nov 2009 at 4:05 pm:
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    Weimer seems too elite, he does not mix with the folk enough . . . Harrover or Aveni or maybe Covington or Stirup better bets if they are interested.

  17. citizenofmanassas said on 5 Nov 2009 at 5:13 pm:
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    I would not hold up Colgan as an example of a good elected official. He has lied a number of times about not supporting tax increases, not supporting illegals, and supporting the second Amendment. It appears that what he says on the campaign trail is not worth a hill of beans once he is back in office. He has a sign on his desk that states(or close to it) that he has the right to change his mind up to the point of voting.

  18. citizenofmanassas said on 5 Nov 2009 at 5:19 pm:
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    Weimer came close to beating Jackson a couple of years ago in a convention I believe it came down to how some of the delegates were weighted. I don’t recall anything that stood out to me that would automatically make me not want to support him.

  19. Trust Me. I Know. said on 6 Nov 2009 at 8:41 am:
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    Weimer will not seek the seat. Harrover won’t seek it. Aveni, possibly. However with this win, Miller will get some choice committee seats in the HOD, and has greater seniority…as a member of the MAJORITY PARTY. Why would he want to start over as a junior member of the minority? Jackson has great political intuition. He’ll move up a bit before he seeks higher office. So, there won’t be any seat for Weimer to run for. Best to use your speculative power to determine who will run for a seat vacated by Colgan at some point in the future. Could be a special election, or in a general election. Only the Lord and Chuck Colgan can make that decision, in the case of death or serious illness, or retirement. I just hope Fitz doesn’t try again. I like Fitz. He’s right on the issues. He’s a smart and honest guy, and would make a great Senator. However, his party said “no” on a few occasions, and the voters said “no” on others. We don’t need our own Rishell.

  20. Greg L said on 6 Nov 2009 at 8:58 am:
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    Weimer would be an excellent candidate for Commonwealth’s Attorney, but it’s still quite a while before the next election. He would be a vast improvement over Paul Ebert.

  21. Robert L. Duecaster said on 6 Nov 2009 at 2:58 pm:
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    My goat would be a vast improvement over Colgan.

  22. Robert L. Duecaster said on 6 Nov 2009 at 3:00 pm:
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    Why did Ebert run unopposed in the last election (except for Ham Sandwich)?

  23. Steve Randolph said on 6 Nov 2009 at 4:51 pm:
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    Newly re-elected Delegate Jackson Miller will be one of the
    honored guest in tomorrow morning’s inaugural Veteran’s Day
    Parade in Old Town Manassas which is slated to begin at 11am.
    The parade will start at Quarry and Prescott, turn down Center St.
    pass City Hall and end at the Harris Pavilion. The weather forecast
    looks good and everyone is encouraged to attend.
    See you there!

  24. AndyH said on 6 Nov 2009 at 5:09 pm:
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    Just not interested

  25. red, white and blue said on 6 Nov 2009 at 9:20 pm:
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    Duck Colgan needs to retire. I have had my tiring times trying to get ahold of him or his administrative assistant over issues and with NO success. I have written comments by him that he later completely igored. Duck goes along the party lines and I expect nothing less from him as he goes into retirement. I certainly do not put him in the same light as Rishell or Connelly of Fairfax but his limits did not extend beyond his present position because he knew it he would not get elected any higher office.

  26. GimmeABreaaaaak! said on 9 Nov 2009 at 1:25 am:
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    “My feeling is that Marshall is going to run against Warner for a senate seat in 2012 unless a congressional seat opens up.”

    Why shouldn’t Bob McD be the candidate? He stands a much better chance than Marshall.

  27. GimmeABreaaaaak! said on 9 Nov 2009 at 1:27 am:
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    And by the way it’s 2014, not 2012. Warner was elected in 2008. McD will be out of office by then.

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