Comments on: Redistricting Prince William County

By: Conservative 2

Conservative 2 — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 18:36:56 +0000

Some of this sounds OK. I do disagree with Fitzsimmonds being a good candidate. He will not give up his high paying job that he pulled off at the Clerks Office. They all sold the Repb. down the drain and may they never go any further.

Lucas is taking care of her father and she has accepted a position with McDonald in Richmond and she apparently is not comming back to P. W. Thats to bad as Julie has it over the rest who won and it is best that she moves on to greater things where she will be appreciated.

We need some new energetic blood in the Woodbridge District. The old ones who ran these past few elections need to hang it up and we need to find a go getter now.

Keep your eyes open so we can get someone who will bring Woodbridge to the level it should be.

By: Brian

Brian — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 01:01:21 +0000

Miller’s district is underpopulated so he will pick up safe precincts in Gainesville from Marshall. Marshall will get completely out of Loudoun.

Mathematically, PWC will only pickup 1/2 of a HoD seat.

No where for Lingamfelter to go but further into Fauquier.

Having Lingamfelter, Anderson, Marshall & Miller live so close to each other makes things difficult.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 23:33:43 +0000

So long as Marty, Jenkins and Covington are on the board there won’t be an expansion eight votes is easier to manipulate than ten, and with those three its all about manipulation.

By: James Young

James Young — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 23:24:03 +0000

Good analysis. One wonders whether — given the massive population growth in ten years (over 42% by my calculation) — the BOCS shouldn’t be expanded by at least two members.

By: Big Dog

Big Dog — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 02:27:28 +0000

Observations:

- I’m 99.9% sure this is Senator Colgan’s last term since he
won’t run again. Jackson Miller would be a good
choice for that seat. Jackson is very well thought of
by a wide spectrum of citizens, especially in the City of
Manassas.

- Councilman Aveni is a smart likeable and hard working
individual, but he has a large younger family and may need
his “day job” to pay the bills. Councilwomen Bass has
an important role in her husband’s business and
not sure serving in Richmond would appeal to her either.

-Political junkies need to factor in the family/financial
implications of running and serving in Richmond
(An average delegate run requires you to raise around 250K
for a 25K job that last two years — if you win ).

- Bad news - all NoVa incumbents in state office will be taken
to the woodshed for ineptness if the Local Composite
Index is frozen for 2010-11 and our schools lose
badly needed and deserved millions to southside schools.
Good news - this is a bipartisan outrage. Kaine
thought it up and apparently McDonnell has agreed to it.
Shame on both of them.

By: Loudoun Insider

Loudoun Insider — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 23:44:14 +0000

Good analysis. We’ll be facing major redistricting challenges in Loudoun as well, but no one has any clue where it will all end up. Much will depend on how much the Dem BOS majority wants to play politics. Most growth has occured in the Dulles District which is at least three times as large as some of the smaller districts in population.

By: Greg L

Greg L — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 22:11:03 +0000

So many variables to consider…

Supervisors: as I said, Marty Nohe will have to scramble to find a spot, and most likely he’ll run for Chairman. Very unlikely that he’ll get a Republican nomination from a convention which is sure to be the case. I expect John Stirrup to stay put unless redistricting yields him an opportunity to run for a Congressional spot. Covington will likely stay put. If Jenkins doesn’t retire (unlikely), he’ll stay put. Principi will run for re-election and may have a really tough race on his hands, especially if Connolly goes down. Potential Dem challengers are out there, but none likely with much of a chance.

Senate: the 29th District will be split, and Colgan may not run for re-election, but we’ve seem him get pressured into staying in before. Jackson Miller has the inside track on winning a spot there. Fitzsimmonds may run as well. Jay O’Brien goes for a re-match against Barker, Toddy Puller is unlikely to get a challenger from PWC unless Julie Lucas gets back from Florida in time. Dems have a pretty thin bench here.

House: 13th District splits in two full districts. Marshall will likely try for U.S. Senate but not until 2012, so he’ll go for re-election in whichever part of the old district he lives in. Numerous potential R’s to run there, most of them are on the PWCRC. 50th District grows into a couple more precincts and might open for a Manassas City Council member if Miller goes to the Senate — rumblings heard that Sheryl Bass might jump for that (ugh) but perhaps Aveni would challenge. 31st District generally stays the same unless we have a chance to promote Lingamfelter to Congress. Look for a strong challenger to Torian in the 52nd, not sure who, and Rich Anderson will consolidate in the 51st with little opposition.

The key here is where the house and senate districts will be redrawn. We know the 13th House District and 29th Senate District will be split, but how that impacts other districts, I don’t know yet.

By: Just the Facts

Just the Facts — Fri, 29 Jan 2010 21:35:39 +0000

Greg, excellent analysis. I’ve been trying to find out more about how redistricting might impact us.

Would you care to be a bit more adventurous in predicting what our incumbents (Republican and Democrat) might do and who, if anyone, you see as credible challengers on the horizon?

My guess is that with the current level of dissatisfaction and redistricting the elections are truly going resemble a Wild West free-for-all. It should be fun.