Guest Post by Sanford D. Horn
Any jackass can safely predict Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) and Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) will win reelection on Tuesday. I’m here to make the tough calls in as many races as possible. The GOP will build on the momentum of last fall’s victories by Gov. Chris Christie in my home state of New Jersey and Gov. Bob McDonnell in my current state of Virginia along with the stunner this past January by Sen. Scott Brown in the People’s Republic of Taxachusetts. This momentum will promote the GOP to majority status in the House with a net gain of 58 seats.
The Senate poses a more difficult challenge and will remain in the hands of the Demonrats. Here’s how it will play out.
Right off the bat, I’m going with an upset special: Scott McAdams (D) will unseat incumbent Lisa Murkowski, a write-in candidate who wouldn’t go home after losing the primary to Joe Miller, who has encountered enough problems of his own in the last few weeks to disgust just enough Alaskans to turn against both Republicans putting the GOP one seat further in the hole.
John Boozman (R) will flip Arkansas from blue to red by defeating incumbent Blanche Lincoln.
Babs “Don’t call me ma’am” Boxer (D-CA) will not suffer a rebellion and be returned to Washington for another six meaningless years narrowly defeating Carly Fiorina, unfortunately.
TEA party favorite Ken Buck (R) will turn Colorado from blue to red as he sends incumbent Michael Bennet packing.
Connecticut is too far to the left to punish state AG Richard “Dick” Blumenthal for lying about his military service and he will wrestle the senate seat away from WWF’s Linda McMahon (R), a hold for the Dems replacing Chris Dud.
Beau Biden (D-DE) is no doubt kicking himself for not having the balls to run for daddy’s former seat because he was afraid of the potential match-up v. Mike Castle. Castle was dethroned by TEA Party darling Christine O’ Donnell, but unfortunately she will lose to Chris Coons (D), but by a smaller margin than predicted - 53-47.
The Meek may inherit the Earth, but in Florida, Kendrick Meek (D) will only inherit the wind as he goes down to defeat as Marco Rubio will win handily, keeping the Sunshine State in the GOP column. Charlie Crist only deserves a mention in disgust as he refused to take “no” for an answer from the voters and jumped ship to run as, well, no one knows for sure under what banner he ran.
Hitting Obummer as close to home as possible letting him know the people are fed up with his crap, Mark Kirk (R) will defeat alleged mob-banker Alexi Giannoulias (D) and change Illinois from blue to red, giving the folks real hope.
In Indiana, Dan Coats (R) will return to the Senate and return the Hoosier State back to red from blue defeating former Congressman Brad Ellsworth.
Former Congressman Jerry Moran (R) will handily defeat Lisa Johnston (D) in the Kansas race to replace Sam Brownback (R) who will be enjoying his own victory celebration becoming the next governor of the Sunflower State.
TEA Party favorite Rand Paul (R) will defeat Jack Conway (D) to keep Kentucky red as baseball Hall of Famer Sen. Bunning hits the showers in retirement.
Roy Blunt (R) will show the voters of Missouri what victory is like as he defeats Robin Carnahan (D) to replace the retiring Kit Bond (R).
In what seems like a Vegas prize fight, TEA Party favorite Sharron Angle (R) will dethrone Princess Harry Reid (D) in a tight Nevada race by a 51-49 margin. Bet on it.
Kelly Ayotte (R) will Live Free in New Hampshire as she celebrates victory over Congressman Paul Hodes (D) keeping the Granite State solidly in the GOP column replacing the retiring Judd Gregg.
North Dakota will send John Hoeven (R) to Washington as he will defeat Tracy Potter (D) and turn the state red as Byron Dorgan (D) retires.
The Buckeye State will remain Ohio State red when Rob Portman (R) defeats Lee Fisher (D) to replace the retiring George Voinovich (R), who, quite frankly, was not all that reliable a vote in the first place.
In the hotly contested race to replace RINO returned Demoncrap Benedict Arlen Specter, former Congressman Pat Toomey (R-PA) will edge out former Congressman Joe Sestak (D-PA) in the Keystone State.
TEA Partier Mike Lee (R-UT) will keep the Beehive State buzzing in the red as he will defeat Sam Granato (D-UT) to replace the primary-defeated Bob Bennett.
By either the narrowest of legitimate margins, or due to voter fraud, Patty Murray (D-WA) will retain her seat in the Evergreen State defeating Dino Rossi, who will be within the margin required for an automatic recount. Washington state is fairly liberal and King County (Seattle) will make the difference.
On the other hand, in liberal Wisconsin, the ultimate liberal Sen. Russ Feingold (D) will be defeated by newcomer Ron Johnson (R). While many are calling this a potential upset and surprise, the handwriting has been on the farm walls for months in America’s Dairyland.
In the race to replace the finally deceased Robert “KKK” Byrd (thank you Sean Hannity), the Mountaineer State will send West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin (D) to the Senate, as he narrowly defeats John Raese (R), who will make a marked improvement over the 34 percent of the vote he garnered when he last ran against the deceased Bryd (D).
Other Senate Democrats to win reelection: Inouye (HI), Mikulski (MD), Schumer & Gillibrand (NY), Wyden (OR) and Leahy (VT).
Other Senate Republicans to win reelection: Shelby (AL), McCain (AZ), Isakson (GA), Crapo (ID), Grassley (IA), Vitter (LA), Burr (NC), Coburn (OK), DeMint (SC) and Thune (SD).
The Senate as of November 1: 57 Dems, 41 GOP, 2 IND. Based upon my predictions, the new Senate in January 2011 will have 50 Dems, 48 GOP, 2 IND.
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Just a few thoughts on some races of interest to me.
AZ-3 Ben Quayle (R) son of former VP Dan Quayle will defeat John Hulburd (D) replacing the retiring John Shadegg (R).
AZ-7 Ruth McClung (R), age 28 will upset Congressman Raul Grijalva (D) who actually called for the boycott of his own state during the 1070 battle that remains unsettled.
CA-37 I like Star Parker (R) in this race. A former welfare recipient, who has made it on her own and now gives back to her community, may not defeat incumbent Laura Richardson, but she is an excellent role model. Did I mention she is a black Republican? Definitely a good role model!
CO-7 Another black Republican, Ryan Frazier, actually has a good shot at knocking off incumbent Ed Perlmutter. (I have talked with Frazier’s campaign office and made a small contribution.)
FL-8 Daniel Webster (R) will defeat big mouth incumbent Alan Grayson (D) and send him to the crap heap upon which he belongs. Grayson actually lied - proven lies - in his campaign ads about Webster, but neither apologized nor took down the ads - including one where he called Webster “Taliban Dan.”
FL-22 I am rooting like hell for Col. Allen West (R) over incumbent Ron Klein (D). I heard West speak at CPAC earlier this year - phenomenal.
HI-1 Charles Djou (R) will hang on to the seat he won earlier this year in a special election.
MD-1 Andy Harris (R) will defeat incumbent Frank Kratovil (D).
NH-2 Former Congressman Charlie Bass (R) will regain his seat.
NJ-3 Former NFL player Jon Runyan (R) will defeat incumbent John Adler (D).
NC-8 Former sport reporter Harold Johnson (R) will defeat incumbent Larry Kissell (D)
ND-AL Longtime Congressman Earl Pomeroy (D) will be defeated by Rick Berg (R).
SC-1 Tim Scott will become the first black Republican to represent the Palmetto State since Reconstruction.
SD-AL Kristi Noem (R) will defeat incumbent Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D).
VA-5 Robert Hurt (R) will defeat incumbent Tom Perriello (D).
VA-9 Morgan Griffith (R) will move from the state house to Congress defeating longtime incumbent Rick Boucher (D) who used campaign donations to purchase a $29,000 Ford Edge for himself.
VA-11 Keith Fimian (R) will defeat incumbent Gerry Connolly (D). The three VA Dumocrap incumbents to go down to defeat will be part of a sweeping trend from east to west as the polls continue to close in the later time zones.
Upset special: Sean Bielat (R) will defeat Barney Frank (D) in the People’s Republic of Taxachusetts.
GUBERNATORIAL RACES (For those who already read the first two parts, yes, there’s more!)
In Alabama, red remains the rule as State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) will defeat Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) to replace Governor Bob Riley (R).
Jan Brewer (R) will coast to reelection victory in Arizona over Terry Goddard (D).
Sadly, Californians will have to find out what Brown (D) can do for (to?) them as Jerry returns to Sacramento defeating Meg Whitman (R).
In Colorado, this is more wishful thinking that American Constitution candidate and former Congressman Tom Tancredo will pull off an upset over Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) and Dan Maes (R). Hickenlooper will probably win, but I did support Tancredo in his ill-fated run for the White House in 2008.
Connecticut will shift from red to blue as Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) will defeat former ambassador Tom Foley (R) to replace Jodi Rell (R).
The Sunshine State will elect Rick Scott (R) over Alex Sink (D), who cheated in the last debate, to replace Florida Governor Charlie Crist (former RINO) in Tallahassee and keep the state in the GOP column.
In Georgia, former Congressman Nathan Deal (R) will defeat former Governor Roy Barnes (D) and John Monds (L) and keep Atlanta red in replacing Sonny Perdue (R).
An upset special in the Aloha State with James Aiona, Jr. (R) keeping Hawaii red by defeating longtime former Congressman Neil Abercrombie and replacing Linda Lingle, the two-term Jewish, female Republican Governor.
Illinois voters continue slapping Obummer in the face turning the governor’s mansion red as Bill Brady (R) knocks of incumbent Patrick Quinn (D).
In the Hawkeye State, Iowans will return former Governor Terry Branstad (R) to Des Moines after a four-year hiatus by defeating incumbent Chet Culver (D).
In the Sunflower State, former Senator Sam Brownback (R) will coast to victory over State Sen. Tom Holland (D) moving to Topeka as Kansas shifts from blue to red to replace Governor Mark Parkinson (D).
Upset special: in the People’s Republic of Taxachusetts, Charlie Baker (R) will win a three-way race by defeating incumbent Governor Deval Patrick (D) and Tim Cahill (I) - yet another slap in the face of Obummer.
Although I am rooting for former Governor Bob Ehrlich (R), who I know, to reclaim the mansion in Annapolis, Maryland voters are too far left and will reelect Governor Martin O’ Malley (D).
Mainiacs will flip Augusta from blue to red by electing Paul Le Page (R) over Libby Mitchell (D) to succeed Governor John Baldacci (D).
Michigan will also move from the blue column to the red column when Rick “One Tough Nerd” Snyder (R) defeats Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) to replace Governor Jennifer Granholm (D-Canada).
On the other hand, Minnesota will move from red to blue, sending former Senator Mark Dayton (D) to St. Paul as he will defeat Tom Emmer (R) and Tom Horner (I) in replacing potential presidential candidate Governor Tim Pawlenty (R).
A double dose of Reid family defeats will occur when Brian Sandoval (R) vanquishes Princess Harry’s son Rory Reid (D) in Nevada to replace Governor Jim Gibbons (R). I would double down on this one! Sandoval will become the first Hispanic elected statewide - and he’s the Republican!
In New Mexico, another Hispanic Republican will capture another governor’s mansion as Land of Enchantment voters send Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez to Santa Fe, turning the capital from blue to red as she defeats Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D). Martinez will become the nation’s first female Hispanic governor replacing Governor Bill Richardson (D).
In New York, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo (D) and son of former Governor Mario Cuomo (D) will keep the Empire State blue as he defeats TEA Party favorite and Buffalo businessman Carl Paladino (R). I like Paladino because he will say what is on his mind - refreshing for a politician.
The Buckeye State will also turn their governor’s mansion from blue to red as former Congressman John Kasich (R) will defeat incumbent Ohio Governor Ted Strickland (D).
The Sooner State also has a battle of female candidates hoping to move to Oklahoma City, and Congressman Mary Fallin (R) will turn the state red from blue as she defeats Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (D) and replaces Governor Brad Henry (D).
Another upset special will send former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) to Salem as he will flip Oregon from blue to red in defeating former Governor John Kitzhaber (D) to replace Governor Ted Kulongoski (D). This is no slam dunk for Dudley, but I am predicting a win at the buzzer.
The Keystone State will also flip from blue to red as Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) will claim Harrisburg by defeating Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato (D) to replace Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell (D).
Rhode Island, the smallest state in the union, has garnered quite a bit of attention in the closing days of the campaign. Frank Caprio (D), shunned by Obummer and told him to “take his endorsement and shove it,” will join John Robitaille (R) in going down to defeat to former GOP Senator Lincoln Chafee, now running as an Independent with Obummer’s blessing - for whatever that is worth these days.
South Carolina will elect TEA Party favorite and Indian-American Nikki Haley (R) governor in the Palmetto State over Vincent Sheheen (D) - yet another minority to be elected carrying the Republican banner! Haley will replace Governor Mark Sanford (R) in Columbia.
South Dakota will remain red as Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) will defeat State Sen. Scott Heidepriem (D) and replace Governor Mike Rounds (R) in Pierre.
Voters in Tennessee will volunteer to send Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) to by defeating Mike McWherter (D) in replacing Phil Bredesen (D).
The Green Mountain State of Vermont will remain red as Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (R) will defeat State Sen. Peter Shumlin (D) in replacing Governor Jim Douglas (R).
In America’s Dairyland, a battle of Milwaukee candidates will find County Executive Scott Walker (R) turning Wisconsin red as he will defeat Mayor Tom Barrett (D) to replace Governor Jim Doyle (D).
Wyoming will flip from blue to red as Matt Mead (R) will replace Governor Dave Freudenthal (D) in Cheyenne.
Other Democrat governors to win reelection: Mike Beebe (AR) and John Lynch (NH).
Other Republicans to win reelection: Sean Parnell (AK), Butch Otter (ID), Dave Heineman (NE), Rick Perry (TX) and Gary Herbert (UT).
Currently there are 26 Dem. governors, 23 GOP governors and one independent. Tuesday will be a red letter day for the GOP as there will be 34 GOP governors, 15 Dem. governors and one independent come January 2011, based upon my predictions.
The opinions expressed here are solely the views of the author, and not representative of the position of any organization, political party, doughnut shop, knitting guild, or waste recycling facility, but may be correctly attributed to the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy. If anything in the above article has offended you, please click here to receive an immediate apology.