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NOVA House and Senate Races

By Greg L | 22 August 2011 | Virginia House, Virginia Senate | 17 Comments

Northern Virginia has been quite the battleground this primary season and has had more than it’s usual share of amusing campaigns.  Here’s a roundup of some of the more interesting races as we head into tomorrow’s primary elections.

(my picks are in bold, in case you aren’t sure who to support)

13th Senate: In a race where John Stirrup, Dick Black and Bob Fitzsimmonds are all well qualified and equally conservative, this one boils down to who is most electable and on that point John Stirrup has the advantage.  The question among many is whether Bob Fitzsimmonds can prevent Prince William County from having another Senator by drawing just enough votes to put Dick Black over the top in this tight race.  My read is that Stirrup has a narrow advantage, but it all depends on who can drive turnout.

36th Senate: Watch Jeff Frederick absolutely crush Tito Munoz tomorrow in a race where one candidate understood the job he was running for, and another one was terminally confused about not only what a Senator does, but how a campaign is even run.  Munoz isn’t even going to break 40% of the vote in this one, an embarrassing performance for a George Allen-backed candidate.

37th Senate: Steve Hunt and Jason Flanary face off in a race where Flanary seems to have the money, and Hunt seems to have the activists.  Hunt seems to be ahead but this district can be pretty unpredictable.

39th Senate: This is a very tight race between Miller Baker and Scott Martin.  Baker seems to be running the better campaign and probably has a slight advantage, but this one is going to be close.

10th House: Randy Minchew, John Whitbeck and Cara Townsend are vying for a nomination where the Russ Potts endorsed candidate Minchew seems to have all the resources.  It’s amazing how someone backed by one of the most loathed RINOs in Virginia can establish traction in an election.  Unless voters unexpectedly wake up from whatever intoxication is prompting them to do anything other than run Russ Potts out of town on a rail, Minchew is going to win this one pretty handily.

87th House: David Ramadan has run a strong campaign against the wacko nutcase Jo-Ann Chase whose only campaign strategy so far seems to be harassing people with baseless legal actions and claiming her opponent is a terrorist.  Watch Chase get crushed when she discovers you can’t campaign like this in areas like South Riding where the electorate is relatively affluent and well-educated.  This one could be a 60-40 blowout, but will likely be a bit closer than that.  Hopefully this will mark the end of Chase’s disturbing participation in Loudoun County politics, but that would require an uncharacteristic likely moment of sanity.

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  1. Loudoun Republican said on 22 Aug 2011 at 2:18 pm:
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    When it comes to the 13th Senate seat, I think you are reading it wrong. I would say that Stirrup had a shot to win when he was coming in as the fresh face with new ideas, but he threw that away and ran a smear campaign against Black, trying to make him sound like a big-spending liberal.

    The people in Loudoun know Black and know his record and John’s attacks have backfired. Drive around the neighborhoods of Loudoun and you see Black signs in peoples yards, but no sign of a Stirrup sign.

    I also have friends in Prince William who say that Black now has more yard signs up in some neighborhoods than the local supervisor candidates.

    Black has the most experience, he has the better record, and he has run a positive campaign with better ideas. He is the only combat veteran in the primary and he is from Loudoun, and he’s the only one that can go toe to toe with the Democrat who is also a combat vereran from Loudoun.

  2. Lovettsville Lady said on 22 Aug 2011 at 2:27 pm:
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    I agree with everything you’ve said, except I think Black will win. He certainly is prominent in western Loudoun although Bob FitzSimmonds has also been campaigning hard out here and may siphon off some Black votes.

    There were two silly campaign moves this weekend.
    I got a robo call from Scott Lingenfelter for Bob FitzSimmonds. I live in Loudoun county. Voters in Loudoun don’t know who Lingenfelter is so his endorsement means little, if anything. Second silly thing, a mass mailing of a ”Sorry I missed you” postcard from Stirrup. It says “I stopped by last week…. but missed you”. How ridiculous. Obviously if had really stopped by the card, or some other literature, would have been left at my house, and not mailed through a “presorted” mass mailing. Sheeze. Does he really think anyone will be fooled by this? What a silly thing to lie about.

    I do believe that all three candidates in the 13th are good, solid, conservatives and will represent us well in Richmond. In the 87th, Ramadan must win because he will do us proud in the general election and in Richmond. Jo-Ann would be a total embarrassment for any republican and has zero chance of making it to Richmond.

  3. Lovettsville Lady said on 22 Aug 2011 at 2:33 pm:
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    Loudoun Republican is right, I have not seen a single Stirrup sign in western Loudoun, where republicans turnout to vote in primaries. In the last week I’ve seen two huge Black signs that were clearly homemade, hand painted. Things like that show a real level of commitment.

    Stirrup was a rising star in the PWC but his campaign has been terrible. Sorry John, but it really has. The Black attacks were not what we expect from fellow republicans. Nor do we expect republicans to lie to us. It wasn’t necessary. I hope that it doesn’t work for Stirrup because as republicans we do not want to encourage these kinds of ugly campaigns against each other. It only hurts us.

  4. Joe Doc said on 22 Aug 2011 at 2:51 pm:
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    I’m voting for Stirrup.

  5. Lansdowne Voter said on 22 Aug 2011 at 4:11 pm:
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    Why would you put down Whitbeck in 10th HOD instead of Cara? Whitbeck is about a RINO as they get. His spending record is all over the blogs. He is a big spending Republican.

  6. Greg L said on 22 Aug 2011 at 4:35 pm:
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    What spending record would that be? I’d be interested to see some sort of documentation about his votes on spending matters. Since he hasn’t been elected to office before now, I’ll understand if it takes you a bit of time to dig up his voting record, though.

    Sheesh. Primary season is crazy.

  7. amused said on 22 Aug 2011 at 4:53 pm:
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    anyone else get the email blast from the Ramadan folks?
    The clever sons of b*****

  8. Lansdowne Voter said on 22 Aug 2011 at 5:08 pm:
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    Greg L,

    No it takes about as long as getting back to refreshing your screen. He has been elected to office. He has been the President of the Lansdowne HOA and VP now.

    So here is just one:

    “Loan Application

    Ellen Shea MOVED to apply for a line of credit to have for the construction of the indoor pool project. The motion was SECONDED by Jeff Brown. Ellen Shea AMENDED the motion to apply for a $1.5 million loan for the construction of the indoor pool project. The amended motion was SECONDED by John Whitbeck. The amended motion PASSED unanimously. The original motion passed unanimously. Vote: 5-0″

    There are dozens of crazy spending measures he voted for and Lansdowne is still digging itself out of debt. I can send you PDF’s of the minutes of you doubt me.

    If you don’t want Minchew for some reason. Then why not Cara? Whitbeck is a definite RINO and will spend, spend, spend.

  9. NoVA Scout said on 22 Aug 2011 at 6:44 pm:
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    I would think the more logical conclusion is that Minchew strengthens the Republican Party by being able to bring back cranky mavericks like Mr. Potts. I think quality will out in that race (it doesn’t always happen, alas, so it’s not a given) and Mr. Minchew will win. A lot of people know him, those who know him have a great deal of respect for him.

  10. Greg L said on 22 Aug 2011 at 7:02 pm:
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    Gee, I wish I had that last comment about a week or two ago. The whole notion that the Republican Party could somehow be “strengthened” by making a place for the likes of Russ Potts would be utterly inflammatory to a wide swath of Conservatives. The reason we had Tim Kaine as Governor was that Russ Potts played spoiler, and he went on to endorse almost exclusively liberal Democrats after that quixotic and pointless run for Governor.

    Anyone who might want to rehabilititate the truly awful political legacy of Russ Potts should be crushed on election day. I wish more voters could know about this.

  11. NoVA Scout said on 22 Aug 2011 at 8:47 pm:
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    The reason we had Russ Potts as a spoiler was because we picked a lousy candidate. Pick strong candidates and you don’t get spinoffs. Potts is an eccentric and he shouldn’t have run in 2005. That doesn’t mean that we don’t need good candidates now.

    By the way, who are the candidates who “wnat to rehabilitate the truly awful political legacy of Russ Potts . . .” ? You’d think that would have come out by now if they’re out there.

  12. Not a Follower said on 23 Aug 2011 at 4:44 am:
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    Dick Black moved to rum in the new district. That is one thing I can’t stand. Some will not be getting my vote.

  13. Not a Follower said on 23 Aug 2011 at 4:44 am:
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    Should have said he will not get my vote

  14. Dittyman8 said on 23 Aug 2011 at 4:52 am:
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    Greg L, I fully agree that Tito Munoz has run a poor campaign. He seems to running for a nomination for some Latino (La Raza perhaps?) party and alienating the majority of Republican voters here. Yes, he might of had 15 minutes of fame supporting John McCain and Sarah Palin back in 2008 but that means next to nothing now. I also found his attack ads lame and anyone who can dissect the sentences can see the smear. Meanwhile, Jeff Frederick has been running an highly effiective campaign.

  15. Stephen Spiker said on 23 Aug 2011 at 6:26 am:
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    Lottesville Lady, I can’t say for certain that this is the case, but many campaigns keep track of the doors they knock on and send a follow-up letter right before the vote reminding voters that they were there. Sometimes they even include a note of something that they talked about at the door, and sometimes they send a note to people who’s door they knocked on but no one was home.

    As for why nothing was on your door, it’s possible something was but it dropped/blew away, or they forgot to leave some lit. Or it’s possible it was a simple mistake in their records, since door-to-door records are often hand-recorded. But I would doubt any campaign would send “sorry I missed you” cards to a mass mailing list without having knocked on those doors before.

  16. Speckulator said on 23 Aug 2011 at 8:07 am:
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    Hey, Amused — please share the email blast. Out here in the gerrymandered precincts that are close to but not in the new 10th, we didn’t get the email.

  17. Speckulator said on 23 Aug 2011 at 8:08 am:
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    Uh, I meant the 87th. Du-uh!

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