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Notes For Two Weeks Out

By Greg L | 25 October 2011 | Prince William County | 29 Comments

Some quick updates on campaigns in Northern Virginia as we enter into the last two weeks of the general election cycle, with what may be a few surprises for readers:

I guess the polls sucked: Babur Lateef ran a poll a few weeks ago, promising insider supporters that if he was within striking distance he’d pour a quarter of a million dollars of his own money into the race to put him over the top.  Strange, for a guy who couldn’t pay his mortgage not long ago and had to play that game of defaulting and then having his family buy the house for him.  Anyways, since Lateef hasn’t opened his wallet I think it’s safe to assume that polling didn’t quite turn out as rosy as Lateef was hoping.  No better statement about the worth of donating to this ridiculous campaign could ever be made — even Lateef is showing that campaign donations are a waste of money.

The DNC thinks we’re Wisconsin:  The DNC dumped $100k into Virginia Senate races this week trying to prop up what is looking like a host of sinking candidates.  The last time the DNC tried this, they shoved millions into recall elections in Wisconsin.  To see the DNC funneling federal money into Virginia in a panic is perhaps unprecedented, and as in Wisconsin it’s not going to work.  I don’t mind them having to dip into their 2012 campaign stash too much, though.

What modern ‘journalism’ has become: before the Washington Post did their endorsement interview with Jeff Frederick they told him they had already decided to endorse Toddy Puller.  Given how all their endorsements seemed to hinge on who was most in favor of increasing taxes, I suppose the interview was a bit unnecessary as Jeff’s position on raising taxes is pretty clear.

And you call yourself a Marine?  Toddy Puller, who at every opportunity brags about how she was married to a veteran (that is before she divorced him and he later committed suicide) has, in the finest tradition of the Marine Corps, run away.  This Friday, Jeff Frederick will debate an empty chair on News Channel 8.  Ooh-rah!

Dems abandon House races: The Ward Armstrong/Charles Poindexter race in South-side has sucked all the cash out of Democrat campaigns for the House of Delegates this cycle, leaving challenger Dems swinging in the wind as Dems try to funnel every last dollar to Senate races.  According to SBE, Carl Genthner has on hand $9,700, Roy Coffey $6153 (net of debts), and Esteban Garces about $10k.  Dems only have challengers against 19 of the 61 incumbent Republican districts, and very few of those challengers are getting any support at all - none of which are in PWC.

Who’s that guy?  Last night RPV Chairman Pat Mullins met Republican Senate candidate Tom Gordy for the first time.  Two weeks out from the election.

Races to watch: Pay attention to the (Puller/Frederick) 36th and (Barker/Baker) 39th Senate District races.  Best opportunities for Senate pickups in Northern Virginia, and they’re getting plenty of attention from both sides.  These are the campaigns to focus your extra time on, and both are probably somewhere within the polling margin of error right now.  Running right behind those is the Principi/Royse race for Woodbridge supervisor.  No polling has been done on that one, but it feels like a close race, and a pickup opportunity.  If you’re in Woodbridge, you can do both senate and magisterial district supervisor at the same time, so get off the couch and do it.

Pulling the Toddy Puller?  Chuck Colgan is running a recut commercial on TV from four years ago that was one of the dumbest pieces then, and looks even dumber now.  Is anyone out there talking about whether he could wheeze his way up the steps of the Capitol these days in a Rocky reprise?  Seems awfully irrelevant to someone who supports giving illegal aliens in-state tuition rates and raising our taxes.  Given the pictures in his mailers, it looks to me he’s falling back on the Toddy Puller tactic of running footage and photos from the past so people won’t realize just frail he has become.  Frail or not, his record is the issue.



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29 Comments

  1. Lovettsville Lady said on 25 Oct 2011 at 11:51 pm:
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    Are there polls available for the Senate pickups in NOVA? Everything that I am hearing has been positive for republican candidates.

  2. Greg L said on 26 Oct 2011 at 12:00 am:
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    No one is releasing polls, and the news outlets aren’t paying for them. All I hear is the back-channel stuff and I find it more interesting to see who is expressing confidence and optimism about top-line numbers and who is focusing on the lower-level questions. Anyone talking about generic R vs. D is having trouble, everyone talking about where they fall around the margins head to head is doing well.

    My take on the Senate side (where there’s been a lot of polling) is that Baker may be slightly ahead, Frederick may be about even or within the margin, Black is well ahead, and Gordy is below the margin of error and needs to make up ground.

  3. Logical Thinker said on 26 Oct 2011 at 5:42 am:
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    Greg, one point on the 100K. It is a spit in the bucket to “help” sagging democrats in the Senate. Put another way, it hardly represents 6 senate district mail pieces? Wonder who the lucky ones will be? Bottom line is this is a kiss on the cheek by the DNC who have candidates who are being told by voters that they can kiss something else.

    And on Puller, her failure to debate is just pathetic. She has tucked her tail and run, figuratively, that is. Not much of a Marine, I would say. And of course she isn’t. She likes to pull them in close for campaigns, but then revert to the far left after the elections.

    On Barker, if you check, I think you will find that he is scared of what military folks will do once they learn he stabbed them in the back on one-gun-a-month when he flipped his vote on a bill that would give the military deploying on TDY a break from this stupid law.

    Truth is, it’s time for these two to go. Really….

  4. Clubber Lang said on 26 Oct 2011 at 9:43 am:
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    I pity that fool Colgan. He ain’t no Rocky Balboa. He’s more like his manager played by Burgess Meredith.

  5. Groveton said on 26 Oct 2011 at 10:24 am:
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    Any thoughts on Merrick - Favola?

    God help us if the Arlington commune spreads out to Fairfax and Loudoun.

  6. Cromagnum said on 26 Oct 2011 at 10:31 am:
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    Greg: Might be worthy of a picture:

    Last night I saw Colgan posted a sign on the 234 bypass southbound before Sudley Manor Quote:

    $156 Million
    To Build The Route 234 Bypass
    Seniority Counts!
    Re-Elect State Senator Check Colgan

    That’s a sign of desparation, to post that. He must know the poll data. And he is scared that the voters have woken up, and want to shake it up.
    (I didn’t think that he was running for the Chairmanship of VDOT?)

    I think it should have been

    $156 Million of your Taxpayer Dollars
    To Build The THIRD beltway through Your County
    Senility Counts!
    Help retire the Liberal Spender State Senator Check Colgan
    And you are next too Obama!

  7. Greg L said on 26 Oct 2011 at 11:15 am:
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    On Merrick/Favola, Caren is running a tremendous campaign while hardcore Dems are talking about “holding their nose” when they vote for her, when they comment on it at all. A tough district, but with Merrick doing everything right and Favola being someone the Dem base doesn’t particularly care for this one is very competitive.

    I don’t have a good read on where the polling likely is, but I’d expect we’re playing somewhere around the polling margins of error.

    I hope Caren pulls it out. She would be fantastic in Richmond.

  8. Pat said on 26 Oct 2011 at 1:55 pm:
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    Gordy claims to be a small business owner - but I heard his business is renting out a single vacation rental home - is this true? He actually claims to be a small business owner for that!

  9. Robert L. Duecaster said on 26 Oct 2011 at 4:43 pm:
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    Fits my definition of a small business owner. My one rental unit causes me more headaches than most high rise apartment managers have.

  10. anon said on 26 Oct 2011 at 5:31 pm:
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    I just finished doing my 2010 taxes (on an extension) and I would like to know if Tim Hugo is responsible for the fact that I could not use the free iFile to online file my Virginia income taxes this year. Could he explain why those who make less than $58k get free filing from the same companies that want me to now pay $19.95? Also, corporations still get to use iFile for free so the service is still there, just not for us middle and upper-middle class types. Where ’s the overall cost savings for Va? I hear $50k was saved taking iFile away from individuals. Really? BTW, I mailed my return this year which will cost Va. at least $1.00 to process and only cost me 44 cents. Hope that was worth it Bob and Tim.

  11. Freedom First said on 26 Oct 2011 at 7:33 pm:
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    I really dont see a reason to come out to the polls this Nov. 9th. Seems like the republicans already have solid chances to win. Everywhere I go I see their signs. This is a Republican area anyway and the Dems dont stand a chance!!!

  12. Maureen said on 26 Oct 2011 at 7:57 pm:
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    Freedom,

    I hope you don’t complain about how things are run if you don’t vote.

  13. Vote Nov 8! said on 26 Oct 2011 at 7:58 pm:
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    @ Freedom First: I wonder if you are really a Democrat troll trying to get folks to not vote? If so it won’t work here brother or sister, we will be out in great numbers to vote for our candidates. You just motivated me to do some phone banking for my guy in fact, thanks!

  14. Logical Thinker said on 26 Oct 2011 at 8:52 pm:
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    Vote Nov 8th…you are dead right! Good read….

  15. Riley said on 26 Oct 2011 at 11:17 pm:
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    I won’t be at the polls Nov. 9th, either, since Election Day is Nov. 8th.

  16. Lovettsville Lady said on 27 Oct 2011 at 1:27 am:
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    I am so glad that Dick Black is doing well. His opponent is awful! What a loser! Mitchell’s only voted three times in whole life! That tells me he doesn’t care about government or who runs our country. But he’s still doing mailers. I got one today. He wants to solve traffic problems by timing traffic lights. Like no one’s thought of that brilliant solution! He’s clueless about everything, including how to start a business without ripping off your former employer and violating your contract with him. Mitchell is just a creepy guy without morals and no knowledge of how to solve any problems.

  17. Lovettsville Lady said on 27 Oct 2011 at 1:50 am:
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    Yes, Caren Merrick is running a nearly flawless campaign, with lots of support from republicans and Richmond. She deserves to win and I sure hope that she does!

  18. Maureen said on 27 Oct 2011 at 4:31 am:
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    Riley- good catch!

    I spoke with Gordy last night and he has some great ideas. He will be an asset to the VA Senate.

  19. Steve Thomas said on 27 Oct 2011 at 12:34 pm:
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    Riley,

    SBE has reviewed the voting trends from the 2008 election. As a result, they are balancing the voter-load at the polls, to ensure everyone has an opportunity. Republicans and Independents vote on Tuesday Nov 8. Democrats vote on November 9. Results tabulated on November 10, and announced on Veterans day. Didn’t you get the memo?

  20. Barbara Cummings said on 27 Oct 2011 at 4:38 pm:
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    Steve, thank you so much for the clarification. And thank you Freedom First for bringing this issue up. You must have heard the part about Democrats being able to vote on November 9 and so the confusion started there.

    I believe that Democrats are permitted to vote on the 8th, but they don’t have to. They actually have that extra day to get to the polls which is really nice.

  21. Logical Thinker said on 27 Oct 2011 at 7:31 pm:
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    Democrats have moved beyond voting. Too conventional for the socialist mind. They would rather lie around in parks working people pass each morning in route to earn a living. It’s more fun to pound on drums amid puddles of urine and piles of garbage demanding free stuff from Uncle Sugar.

    O-bla-bla loves these guys. Reminds him of his community organizing days when he, well, did NOTHING to help the economy. Kinda like now…

  22. Tim said on 28 Oct 2011 at 6:35 pm:
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    Greg,

    You love to talk about this bill and refer to it as a bill which grants in-state tuition
    to Illegal Aliens- The purpose of the bill bill introduced by Senator Hanger (a Republican) was to DENY IN-STATE TUITION. As you can see the original floor vote was 39 to 0. The Gov threatened Veto and offered ammendments which general made it possible to deny Instate tuition to illegals with some exceptions.

    The final vote with the ammedments was 32 yea’s and 7 nays. The option given to the senate was to compromise so they could deny instate tuition to most illegals or state reject the ammendments, and allow all illegals to get instate tuition.

    The Senate Choice to to something over nothing.. Jill Vogel, Stolle, Stocsh, Stuart, Wampler, Norment and more Republicans vote the same as Senator Colgan.

    Your readers and contributors can go to the sate website to get facts;
    http://leg1.state.va.us/cgi-bin/legp504.exe?091+vot+SP0096

    SB 1037 Tuition, in-state; denied to illegal aliens. log in | tally sheet

    floor: 01/23/09 Senate: Constitutional reading dispensed (39-Y 0-N)

    YEAS–Barker, Blevins, Colgan, Cuccinelli, Deeds, Edwards, Hanger, Herring, Houck, Howell, Hurt, Locke, Lucas, Marsh, Martin, McDougle, McEachin, Miller, J.C., Miller, Y.B., Newman, Norment, Northam, Obenshain, Petersen, Puckett, Puller, Quayle, Ruff, Saslaw, Smith, Stolle, Stosch, Stuart, Ticer, Vogel, Wagner, Wampler, Watkins, Whipple–39.
    NAYS–0.
    RULE 36–0.
    NOT VOTING–Reynolds–1.

    Commonwealth of Virginia
    Senate
    2009 Regular Session

    Date: 01/27/09 Regular Calendar
    Senate Bills on Third Reading Time: 1:10 p.m.
    SB1037 - Hanger
    Tuition, in-state; denied to illegal aliens.
    Passage R
    YEAS - 32 NAYS - 7 RULE 36 - 0 NOT VOTED - 1
    YEAS - 32
    Barker
    Blevins
    Colgan
    Deeds
    Edwards
    Hanger
    Herring
    Houck Howell
    Locke
    Lucas
    Marsh
    Martin
    McEachin
    Miller, J.C.
    Norment Northam
    Petersen
    Puckett
    Puller
    Quayle
    Ruff
    Saslaw
    Stolle Stosch
    Stuart
    Ticer
    Vogel
    Wagner
    Wampler
    Watkins
    Whipple
    NAYS - 7
    Cuccinelli
    Hurt McDougle
    Miller, Y.B. Newman
    Obenshain Smith
    RULE 36 - 0
    NOT VOTED - 1
    Reynolds
    Senator Reynolds stated that he was recorded as not voting on the question of the passage of S.B. 1037, whereas he intended to vote nay.

    Sequence number: 0091

  23. Greg L said on 28 Oct 2011 at 6:50 pm:
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    What a load of utter garbage. Hangar’s bill was to “deny” instate tuition except under certain broad circumstances when it had previously been denied to them in the entirety before. I spend several days down in Richmond making sure Senators were aware of how they were being mislead on this, and one of those Senators was Colgan himself. After having explained to his staff what this bill actually did — which was to enable illegal aliens to get in-state tuition rates — he went ahead and voted for it anyways.

    And for the record, I can’t wait when the good people of the valley dispense with their trash and send Hangar into a well-deserved retirement. He is a zero.

    For more on this:
    http://www.bvbl.net/index.php/2009/01/19/emmett-hangar-let-illegal-aliens-vote-in-virginia/

    http://www.bvbl.net/index.php/2009/01/28/chuck-colgan-votes-for-illegal-aliens-again/

  24. Tim said on 28 Oct 2011 at 7:16 pm:
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    I don’t claim to know more than you on this subject, you have spent much more time, why did Ken C. vote for it on the first pass?

    So you believe Jill Vogel, Stolle, Stocsh, Stuart, Wampler, Norment should also get dumped?

  25. Greg L said on 28 Oct 2011 at 7:22 pm:
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    On the first vote unfortunately nobody realized what this bill actually was, and got fooled by Hangar’s deliberately deceptive title. On the second vote, those votes were deliberate because a lot of folks worked hard to make sure Senators understood what they were voting for.

    Stolle had always been an illegal alien supporter and I frequently blistered him on this blog. Thankfully he is no longer in the Senate. Walter Stoch got primaried and forcibly retired because of his RINO tendencies on this and other bills. Norment, Wampler, Vogel and Stuart have been put on notice that one more of these and they’re getting primaried as well, and that’s not just coming from me.

  26. Jamie said on 28 Oct 2011 at 7:44 pm:
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    Think your info on Walter stosch is wrong. He is running this fall.

  27. Tim said on 28 Oct 2011 at 7:50 pm:
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    Yes without opposition! and $650,000 in the bank..

  28. Greg L said on 28 Oct 2011 at 9:58 pm:
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    My bad on Stosch. I confused him with someone else.

  29. Value Voter said on 30 Oct 2011 at 1:34 pm:
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    We saw Dick Black’s volunteers all over Western Prince William (conservative) church parking lots this morning putting literature under windshields! Go Dick!

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