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We’re Winning! Let’s Surrender!

By Greg L | 5 January 2015 | PWCDC, PWCRC, Prince William County | 7 Comments

During the past few months potential Republican challengers in the 2015 elections have been dropping like flies, and that continued today with an announcement by Jim Riley that he’s not going to challenge Maureen Caddigan for the Potomac District seat on the Board of Supervisors.  Right amidst an unprecedented wave of voter outrage against political hack insiders who refuse to govern that’s swamping the country, potential conservative grassroots reform candidates are surrendering faster than 1940’s frenchmen.  I’m sure they all have good reasons for hunkering down as the tanks roll on by, but if no one is going to stand up and fight it’s going to get pretty ugly around here real quick.

No one should be happier about this than local hard-core leftist Democrats, who see a broad array of weak, damaged and amazingly vulnerable incumbents that can be pretty easily toppled over with only marginal candidates and a passable GOTV effort next November.  If they play a good strategic game, Prince William County is turning Democrat this year and there’s not much anyone can do to stop that if there simply aren’t alternatives for voters to consider.

Corey Stewart has apparently dodged any primary challenge by either Jeff Frederick or Pete Candland, and absent any surprise such as John Stirrup emerging from political retirement there just aren’t any potential candidates with experience in much of a position to get Stewart off the general election ballot before someone with a “D” next to their name rips out his political entrails in November.  It’ll be a brutal, nasty race as voters get fully acquainted with the amazingly massive volume of reasons why Stewart should be retired.

Marty Nohe, someone who really hasn’t ever faced much of a political challenge, apparently got a pass from PWCGOP Vice-Chair DJ Jordan in another stunner.  I’ve heard rumors that Nohe might actually draw a primary challenger this cycle, but whoever it is will have a hard time bringing along the kind of pedigree, personality and recognition that Jordan could have used to bulldoze Nohe under.  While Marty isn’t a lazy campaigner or politically stupid, his record in office is a cudgel that a credible primary challenger could beat him to political death with making this another highly exploitable opportunity for Democrats to take advantage of while a wide swath of Republican-leaning voters sit on their hands and watch in amusement from the sidelines.

Maureen Caddigan has pivoted in recent months from being a corrupt embezzler with a penchant for calling constituents unflattering names from the dais at the McCoart Building into a me-too reformer quite obviously scrambling for political cover.  That schtick should last about as long as this election cycle, provided she survives the general election.  Jim Riley let this one pass him by, and next time he finds an opportunity to run he most likely gets to challenge an entrenched Democrat in an Obama district.

Mike May has decided to run for Commonwealth’s Attorney against the longest-serving Commonwealth’s Attorney in Virginia history, a noble idea that I certainly hopes will work.  Unfortunately little or no thought was ever given to what might happen next in Occoquan so pleasant and affable Earnie Porta gets to roll over the pleasant and affable Don Scoggins in what will probably be the most genteel race in Virginia.  At least Porta is likely to be better at governance than most BOCS Republicans have shown the capability to be, but if Dems get a majority on the board all bets are off.

Conservatives might take solace in the idea that Gainesville and Brentsville are “safe” for Republicans, and now a bastion of conservative reformers.  Well, don’t fall into that trap.  Democrats would be wise to make sure nobody on their ticket runs in these districts in order to depress turnout there and help seal the deal for their candidates running for the 29th Senate District and PWBOCS Chairman who might otherwise get swamped by all the votes that come out of these two districts.  Only their irrational hatred of Bob Marshall and a couple other Delegates could possibly thwart that obvious strategic vision.  Candland and Lawson’s two votes will be pretty meaningless on a board dominated by Democrats, or in Democrats worst-case scenario a board of RINOs that will vote along with them anyways.

I’m praying that this surrender-monkeying isn’t happening at the School Board level as well.  Otherwise we’re looking at Chairman Lillie Jessie running the School Board with monthly “Hands Up Don’t Shoot” demonstrations at the dais that will leave Gil Trenum, Alyson Satterwhite and Lisa Bell dumbfounded but safely cornered into not fighting a losing battle with the board majority that might otherwise harm their working relationship with Dr. Walts.  For years Republicans have had the advantage in building a “bench” of potential candidates ready to go, but if that “bench” doesn’t actually show up when they’re needed we’re going to end up with a truly awful local government.

2015 Outlook:

County Supervisors:

Chairman: Leans D
Gainesville District: Safe R
Brentsville District: Safe R
Coles District: Toss-up
Occoquan District: Safe D
Neabsco District: Safe D
Potomac District: Leans R
Woodbridge District: Safe D

School Board (supposedly non-partisan):

Chairman: Leans D
Gainesville District: Safe R
Brentsville District: Safe R
Coles District: Toss-up
Occoquan District: Safe D
Neabsco District: Leans R
Potomac District: Leans D
Woodbridge District: Safe D

Sheriff: Safe R
Commonwealths Attorney: Leans D
Clerk of the Court: Leans R

UPDATE: Pete Candland is announcing his intentions for the 2015 election cycle during a conference call on the evening of January 7th.  Stay tuned for developments, just in case someone out there has decided that surrender is not an American value.

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  1. Jim Riley said on 5 Jan 2015 at 6:07 pm:
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    Believe me, if it weren’t for my situation at work where they just laid off an entire division (thankfully, not mine), I would have been all in.

    Expect Caddigan’s me-too reformer persona to disappear in 3… 2… 1…

  2. John S Gray CPA said on 6 Jan 2015 at 12:56 pm:
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    Paul O’Meara filed in December to challenge Marty Nohe in the Coles district for the nomination. He’s a political newcomer but a solid, reliable fiscal conservative. He’s a PWC native, a Hylton HS & George Mason Univ. graduate and small business owner here in PWC. Readers would do themselves well to look at his website.

  3. Bruce Baxter said on 6 Jan 2015 at 5:13 pm:
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    My experience with Marty Nohe goes back to when the chaired the YRs. You don’t want that guy. The only thing he believes in is his own political future. Also, keep him away from money. No, he is not a thief, just has little regard for the stuff and will mess you up.

    15 years ago, local Republicans knew that high density housing doesn’t support itself and causes your taxes to go up. Also, we fought hard to transition the county to Republican. Your Repulican supervisors over the years apparently didn’t get it. Those townhouses, the cheap ones anyway, have made you purple.

  4. Donna Widawski said on 6 Jan 2015 at 8:26 pm:
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    Mr. Riley,

    It takes money, organization, and a commitment daily to reach out to voters. Only cowards hide behind a blog to attack an opponent and boast about a run for office. [redacted] learned real quickly trashing ones opponent on a blog site without getting out from behind a desk and door knocking is a sure way to lose a election.

    This is simply another episode of Mr Riley’s “failure to launch.”

    [Ed note: comment edited by admin]

  5. Jim Riley said on 7 Jan 2015 at 6:33 pm:
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    Donna, perhaps you’ve missed my community involvement over the past 14 years, serving as president of one of the largest HOAs in the district, serving on the Cherry Hill Community Development Authority and serving on the Prince William County Housing Board as the At-Large representative among many other things. Maybe you missed my local policy and issues based columns that I wrote for Prince William Today / Inside NOVA as they relaunched. You may also have missed my appearances on a panel at a Committee of 100 forum and Bill Golden’s PWC Politics web show. Blogging was but a very small part of my community involvement (and I haven’t even touched on the church, school and kids’ extracurricular activities I’ve participated with.)

    I’m actually quite sorry that we’re not on better terms since when it comes to policies, I think that we have quite a bit in common and would do better to work together to advance those causes rather than continue to engage in any sort of personal tussles.

  6. Jeanine Martin said on 8 Jan 2015 at 4:48 pm:
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    I’ve never understood why PWC has so many democrats in office and Loudoun has none, other than Wexton. I see no credible democrats challengers for 2015. Jennifer Wexton is the only democrat elected to any office in Loudoun. Why is PWC so different when demographics appear to be quite similar? The democrat party in Loudoun could have a meeting in a phone booth.

  7. Anonymous said on 10 Jan 2015 at 11:01 am:
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    Wow, after reading this I don’t see how the BOCS can stop from becoming BLUE.

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